579 Lupine Ln #16 · Burlington, WA 98233

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured · 143 Days on market

Built 2003 Est $230k · 8% over ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• ARV discount +3.7/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy the simple life in the Burlington Hill Estates Mobile Park 55+ This 2003 built mobile home is 1,512 square feet with 3 bedrooms 2 bath. Walk into an open floor plan with laminate flooring for easy maintenance. Two living spaces to enjoy company in. Large kitchen with plenty of counter-space plus a dining area. Spacious primary suite with walk in closet and attached bath. Two car garage attached for easy access to home. Greenhouse can be used for extension of living space or to grow vegetables & plants. Private yard with no neighbor in the back!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Laminate flooring
• Two living spaces

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• TWO LIVING SPACES
• LARGE KITCHEN
• PLENTY OF COUNTER-SPACE
• DINING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $249k).
• Recommended offer: $219k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 2.2% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#65 in WA, #1,168 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D.
• Burlington-Edison School District (suburban): math 32% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #229 of 291 in WA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 91 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 561 units permitted in Skagit County in 2024 (270 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Skagit County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.58%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $229,824
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
579 Lupine Ln #16	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,512 (0%)	0mo	$249,000	$165	100
619 Lupine Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,588 (+5%)	11mo	$200,000	$126	81
572 Andrew Dr #3	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+11%)	6mo	$255,000	$152	73
561 Andrew Dr #30	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-13%)	8mo	$160,000	$121	70
1030 Courtney Ln	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,457 (-4%)	23mo	$260,000	$178	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-10,239
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $61,073
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98233

• Home prices YoY: -12.0%
• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,662 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$311 /mo · $3,735/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
• Net cashflow: $316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,262

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
180 Moss Ln Burlington, WA	4.0	2.0	1400	$3,300	$2.36	43d	1	0.57mi
104 Heritage Pl Burlington, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	917	$2,525	$2.75	21d	13	0.92mi
421 W Fairhaven Ave Burlington, WA	2.0	1.5	1100	$2,195	$2.00	43d	1	0.95mi
421 E Fairhaven Ave Unit W Fairhaven Ave, 421 Burlington, WA	2.0	1.5	1100	$2,195	$2.00	43d	1	0.95mi
425 E Fairhaven Ave Unit W Fairhaven Ave, 425 Burlington, WA	2.0	1.5	1100	$2,195	$2.00	43d	1	0.95mi
1066 Vail Ln Burlington, WA	3.0	2.0	1704	$2,800	$1.64	21d	1	1.01mi
592 Neff Cir Unit 592 Burlington, WA	3.0	2.5	1490	$2,600	$1.74	43d	1	1.12mi
615 Peterson Rd Burlington, WA	3.0	1.0–2.0	762	$2,500	$3.28	21d	23	1.15mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-18
   price $249,000
3. 2026-02-10
   price $259,999
4. 2025-12-01
   listed $265,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,947
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$3,735
• − Insurance: −$2,042
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,556
• − Management: −$2,556
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$133
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$32
• After-tax cash flow: $3,823/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burlington-Edison School District
• NCES district ID: 5300780
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $59,128
• Composite: 35.41/100
• National rank: #9782
• State rank: #229 of 291 in WA

Livability — Burlington

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #65
• US rank: #1168

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burlington, WA
• County: Skagit County · 118,108 people
• City population: 17,850
• Metro: Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA
• Population (ZIP): 17,850
• Household income: $87,614
• Rent vs Own: 40.6% rent · 59.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 716.0

Population outlook (Skagit County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 131,498 people
• By 2030: 135,556 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 141,717 · +7.8%
• By 2050: 145,714 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 152,201 · +15.7%
• By 2100: 147,980 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 8% Asian 2% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Guatemala, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Skagit

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 52.9% · R 44.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.7pp no change · 2008: 9.6pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+7.5 2016: D+3.2 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+9.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.46%
• Current HPI: 392.5216
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.57%
• Metro: Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-6.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $249,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $259,999 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-01 Listed $265,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid