2436 Harlem Rd · Cheektowaga, NY 14225

$194,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,684 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1943 7,841 sqft lot Est $236k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 2436 Harlem Rd! This is a 1,684 sq ft 5-bedroom home on a large corner lot with a 2-car detached garage! Features include 1 full bath, 2 half baths, some newer windows, and vinyl flooring throughout. Roof approx. 10–15 years old. This home offers great bones and strong potential—perfect for investors or buyers looking to build equity! Offer deadline is Wednesday4/1 at 12pm.

Key facts

• 7,841 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1943

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-169 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (15.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (8.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.8% in Cheektowaga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#54 in NY, #811 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Cheektowaga Central School District (urban): math 30% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #564 of 590 in NY (top 96%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $195k implies a 133% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $164,959 (15.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.73%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $235,760
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1219 Walden Ave	0.36mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,649 (-2%)	7mo	$160,000	$97	65
46 Central Blvd	0.54mi	4/1.0	1,609 (-4%)	8mo	$225,000	$140	60
1340 Walden Ave	0.17mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,537 (-9%)	12mo	$200,000	$130	60
4 Villa Moraine Dr	0.67mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,680 (-0%)	4mo	$289,000	$172	58
97 Southern Pkwy	0.42mi	4/1.5	1,471 (-13%)	1mo	$237,000	$161	56
89 Woodell Ave	0.34mi	4/1.0	1,521 (-10%)	15mo	$199,900	$131	55
25 Mcnaughton Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,437 (-15%)	4mo	$255,000	$177	52
53 Pine Rdg	0.74mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,764 (+5%)	6mo	$130,000	$74	47
8 Pendennis Pl	0.67mi	4/1.5	1,502 (-11%)	10mo	$270,000	$180	40
16 Euclid Ave	0.68mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,740 (+3%)	16mo	$200,000	$115	40
110 W Grand Blvd	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,491 (-12%)	8mo	$310,000	$208	39
25 Peach Tree Rd	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,502 (-11%)	7mo	$162,000	$108	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-42,212
• Equity at exit: $29,060

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-49,988
• Equity at exit: $16,851

Cash invested: $54,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14225

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,775 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax from tax record: −$468 /mo · $5,620/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $-169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,989

Max offer price $164,959

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-59	-5% $-114	+0% $-169	+5% $-225	+10% $-280
Rent	-10% $-310	-5% $-240	+0% $-169	+5% $-99	+10% $-29
Rate	-1.0pp $-71	-0.5pp $-120	base $-169	+0.5pp $-220	+1.0pp $-271

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,725
• Closing costs: $5,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
143 Reo Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	1143	$1,600	$1.40	12d	1	0.19mi
1202 Walden Ave Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,400	$0.93	18d	1	0.37mi
24 Euclid Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,700	$1.48	44d	1	0.66mi
979 Walden Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	3.0	1793	$2,000	$1.12	2d	1	0.78mi
65 Domedion Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1632	$1,500	$0.92	2d	1	0.91mi
14 Rutland Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1430	$2,200	$1.54	11d	1	1.02mi
96 Academy Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2247	$1,400	$0.62	24d	1	1.07mi
47 Awood Pl Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1840	$1,500	$0.82	2d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-26
   listed $194,900 Active
3. 2019-03-15
   soldstatus $83,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,620 · $468/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,620 · $468/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,298
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,917
• − Property taxes: −$5,620
• − Insurance: −$974
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,704
• − Management: −$1,704
• − Depreciation: −$5,670
• Taxable loss: −$5,291
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,270
• After-tax cash flow: $-764/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cheektowaga Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607230
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,401
• Composite: 28.45/100
• National rank: #6753
• State rank: #564 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cheektowaga

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #54
• US rank: #811

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cheektowaga, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 55,470
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 33,620
• Household income: $67,237
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 991.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.26%
• Current HPI: 320.6248
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+133.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $194,900 WNYREIS
• 2019-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $83,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,620 · +16.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.