Florence Plan · Magnolia, TX 77447

$278,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,858 sqft · SingleFamily · 215 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Hello and welcome to the Florence located in Maple Woods. This is a two-story house that features three bedrooms, two-and-a-half bathrooms, and a two-car garage. This house spans 1,858 square feet and will be a lovely home for you and your family! As you enter the home, you are greeted by the brightly lit foyer with vinyl flooring. Down the foyer lies the powder room and the carpeted stairway leading to the second story of the home. Past the stairs are the family room, dining room, and kitchen. This is an open concept living and dining space, making this home perfect for hosting weekend bashes, birthday parties, or get-togethers with family and friends. The kitchen is finished with stainless steel appliances, a kitchen island, and a spacious L-shaped pantry. The kitchen leads to the utility room, which has vinyl floors and provides more than enough space for a washer, dryer, and storage items. The primary bedroom can be accessed via the family room and is finished with carpet flooring and two bright windows facing the back of the property. Sunlight streams into this room, illuminating the space with natural light. The primary bedroom opens to the primary bathroom, which is complete with vinyl flooring, a linen closet, a standing shower, and a separate toilet room. The bathroom leads to the walk-in closet, which has carpet flooring and provides more than enough space for clothing and storage. Returning to the carpeted stairway and journeying to the second floor of the hou

Key facts

• Tomball
• Waller high school
• Cypress

Tags

• TOP RATED SCHOOLS
• ROBERTS ROAD ELEMENTARY
• WALLER JUNIOR HIGH
• WALLER HIGH SCHOOL
• CYPRESS
• TOMBALL

🏗️ New construction. The $278,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $337,089.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $279k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-622 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1782 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 215 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,198 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 215 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.90%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $337,089
• List price: $278,990
• Delta: -17.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
517 Wax Myrtle Way	0.06mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,041 (+10%)	0mo	$314,990	$154	74
553 Wax Myrtle Way	0.06mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,041 (+10%)	2mo	$314,990	$154	72
105 Rising Cedar Ln	0.12mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,042 (+10%)	4mo	$303,990	$149	69
25808 Robin Hood Ln	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (-4%)	9mo	$375,000	$209	63
25458 Camelot Ln	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,947 (+5%)	1mo	$499,000	$256	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-100,515
• Equity at exit: $50,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -63.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.73×
• Total profit: $-162,857
• Equity at exit: $29,145

Cash invested: $94,385 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1782
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,162 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,768
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$421 /mo · $5,056/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $-622

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,949

Max offer price $247,145

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-389	-5% $-505	+0% $-622	+5% $-738	+10% $-855
Rent	-10% $-792	-5% $-707	+0% $-622	+5% $-536	+10% $-451
Rate	-1.0pp $-452	-0.5pp $-536	base $-622	+0.5pp $-709	+1.0pp $-798

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,272
• Closing costs: $10,113
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $278,990 Active 215 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $278,990 Active 214 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $278,990 Active 213 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $278,990 Active 212 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $278,990 Active 210 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $278,990 Active 206 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $278,990 Active 205 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $278,990 Active 204 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $278,990 Active 201 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $278,990 Active 200 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $278,990 Active 199 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $278,990 Active 198 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $278,990 Active 197 DOM
14. 2026-02-18
    price $278,990 1496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1496 chars)

    Hello and welcome to the Florence located in Maple Woods. This is a two-story house that features three bedrooms, two-and-a-half bathrooms, and a two-car garage. This house spans 1,858 square feet and will be a lovely home for you and your family! As you enter the home, you are greeted by the brightly lit foyer with vinyl flooring. Down the foyer lies the powder room and the carpeted stairway leading to the second story of the home. Past the stairs are the family room, dining room, and kitchen. This is an open concept living and dining space, making this home perfect for hosting weekend bashes, birthday parties, or get-togethers with family and friends. The kitchen is finished with stainless steel appliances, a kitchen island, and a spacious L-shaped pantry. The kitchen leads to the utility room, which has vinyl floors and provides more than enough space for a washer, dryer, and storage items. The primary bedroom can be accessed via the family room and is finished with carpet flooring and two bright windows facing the back of the property. Sunlight streams into this room, illuminating the space with natural light. The primary bedroom opens to the primary bathroom, which is complete with vinyl flooring, a linen closet, a standing shower, and a separate toilet room. The bathroom leads to the walk-in closet, which has carpet flooring and provides more than enough space for clothing and storage. Returning to the carpeted stairway and journeying to the second floor of the hou

15. 2025-11-15
    listed $288,990 Active 1496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1496 chars)

    Hello and welcome to the Florence located in Maple Woods. This is a two-story house that features three bedrooms, two-and-a-half bathrooms, and a two-car garage. This house spans 1,858 square feet and will be a lovely home for you and your family! As you enter the home, you are greeted by the brightly lit foyer with vinyl flooring. Down the foyer lies the powder room and the carpeted stairway leading to the second story of the home. Past the stairs are the family room, dining room, and kitchen. This is an open concept living and dining space, making this home perfect for hosting weekend bashes, birthday parties, or get-togethers with family and friends. The kitchen is finished with stainless steel appliances, a kitchen island, and a spacious L-shaped pantry. The kitchen leads to the utility room, which has vinyl floors and provides more than enough space for a washer, dryer, and storage items. The primary bedroom can be accessed via the family room and is finished with carpet flooring and two bright windows facing the back of the property. Sunlight streams into this room, illuminating the space with natural light. The primary bedroom opens to the primary bathroom, which is complete with vinyl flooring, a linen closet, a standing shower, and a separate toilet room. The bathroom leads to the walk-in closet, which has carpet flooring and provides more than enough space for clothing and storage. Returning to the carpeted stairway and journeying to the second floor of the hou

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,944
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,882
• − Property taxes: −$5,056
• − Insurance: −$1,685
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,076
• − Management: −$2,076
• − Depreciation: −$9,806
• Taxable loss: −$13,637
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,273
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,186/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home in Magnolia, TX is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — Modern backsplash can increase appeal and value
• Resale Bathroom vanity and fixtures — Upgraded vanity and fixtures can increase appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — Modern backsplash can increase appeal and value ↑
• Resale Bathroom vanity and fixtures — Upgraded vanity and fixtures can increase appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $278,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-15 Listed $288,990 Zillow