11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #307 · Surprise, AZ 85378

$79,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Manufactured · 158 Days on market

Built 1985 Good condition $59/sqft · at area comps Est $80k · at est. ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this lovely single-story residence situated on a desirable corner lot in Surprise! Upon arrival, you will immediately notice a carport parking & a welcoming front porch that hints at the charm within. Enjoy the large great room featuring wood flooring, custom paint, and vaulted ceilings that add to the airy feel. The kitchen comes with plenty of cabinets, matching appliances, and a convenient breakfast bar. Have a good night's sleep in the perfectly sized primary bedroom, which provides a private bathroom with dual sinks. Secondary bedrooms include well-sized closets. A cozy back patio invites you to unwind under the stars. This unit also has a LARGE workshop/storage area. What are you waiting for? BRAND SPANKIN NEW ROOF!

Key facts

• Wood flooring
• Front porch
• Carport parking

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• CARPORT PARKING
• FRONT PORCH
• GREAT ROOM
• WOOD FLOORING
• CUSTOM PAINT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $971 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.9% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 76 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $691 of equity ($550 loan paydown + $141 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.34%
• DSCR: 3.33
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $79,995
• List price: $79,500
• Delta: -0.62%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #33	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-1%)	4mo	$112,000	$83	95
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #25	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-2%)	2mo	$92,000	$70	94
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #134	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,352 (0%)	9mo	$75,000	$55	93
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #165	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-4%)	1mo	$94,500	$73	82
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #188	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (+8%)	2mo	$80,000	$55	72
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #80	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+14%)	1mo	$120,000	$78	72
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #243	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,203 (-11%)	7mo	$135,000	$112	71
16101 N EL Mirage Rd #371	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-1%)	0mo	$64,000	$48	66
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #271	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	8mo	$74,000	$51	66
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #75	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-15%)	6mo	$62,000	$54	65
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #29	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,534 (+14%)	5mo	$73,500	$48	60
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #23	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,173 (-13%)	5mo	$79,990	$68	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.18% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.45×
• Total profit: $54,566
• Equity at exit: $23,790

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.24×
• Total profit: $116,649
• Equity at exit: $29,166

Cash invested: $22,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85378

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,924 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$417
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$99 /mo · $1,192/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $971

Break-even live

Break-even rent $695

Max offer price $79,500

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,875
• Closing costs: $2,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11402 W Hutton Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,800	$1.12	24d	1	0.24mi
11345 W Loma Blanca Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,930	$1.41	43d	1	0.29mi
11417 W Amber Trl Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,750	$1.55	5d	1	0.30mi
16608 N 113th Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1571	$1,900	$1.21	43d	1	0.32mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 3 Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,822	$1.54	24d	1	0.69mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 2 Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,732	$1.61	24d	1	0.69mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,813	$1.68	12d	1	0.76mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,981	$1.67	1d	1	0.76mi
17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	1737	$1,695	$0.98	5d	1	0.80mi
17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1737	$1,695	$0.98	24d	1	0.80mi
12121 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,999	$1.19	24d	1	0.82mi
12134 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,950	$1.16	24d	1	0.83mi
14815 N Tonya Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1642	$2,040	$1.24	43d	1	0.91mi
15109 N Verbena St El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1642	$1,869	$1.14	43d	1	0.93mi
14809 N El Frio Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1459	$2,199	$1.51	22d	1	0.96mi
14809 N El Frio Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,300	$1.35	24d	1	0.96mi
11759 W Banff Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	1495	$2,000	$1.34	43d	1	1.00mi
15620 N El Mirage Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1310	$1,599	$1.22	24d	2	1.05mi
11429 W Austin Thomas Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1536	$1,875	$1.22	43d	1	1.13mi
16629 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1052	$1,462	$1.39	2d	3	1.13mi
15427 N Jerry St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	920	$1,450	$1.58	5d	1	1.14mi
16520 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1267	$1,850	$1.46	2d	17	1.22mi
11476 W Madisen Ellise Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1301	$2,070	$1.59	43d	1	1.22mi
10831 W Tropicana Cir Sun City, AZ	2.0	1.0	995	$2,800	$2.81	20d	1	1.23mi
10814 W El Capitan Cir Sun City, AZ	2.0	1.0	995	$3,000	$3.02	15d	1	1.27mi
11755 W Thompson Ranch Rd El Mirage, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,771	$2.96	1d	1	1.35mi
14715 N 124th Ave El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1534	$2,010	$1.31	43d	1	1.47mi
12437 W Via Camille El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,875	$1.22	16d	1	1.49mi
12438 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,595	$1.22	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,500 Active 158 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,500 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,500 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,500 Active 155 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,500 Active 153 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,500 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,500 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,500 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $79,500 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,500 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,500 Active 142 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,500 Active 141 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,500 Active 140 DOM
14. 2026-05-05
    price $79,500 746-char remark

    Show marketing remark (746 chars)

    Welcome to this lovely single-story residence situated on a desirable corner lot in Surprise! Upon arrival, you will immediately notice a carport parking & a welcoming front porch that hints at the charm within. Enjoy the large great room featuring wood flooring, custom paint, and vaulted ceilings that add to the airy feel. The kitchen comes with plenty of cabinets, matching appliances, and a convenient breakfast bar. Have a good night's sleep in the perfectly sized primary bedroom, which provides a private bathroom with dual sinks. Secondary bedrooms include well-sized closets. A cozy back patio invites you to unwind under the stars. This unit also has a LARGE workshop/storage area. What are you waiting for? BRAND SPANKIN NEW ROOF!

15. 2026-03-03
    price $85,000 746-char remark

    Show marketing remark (746 chars)

    Welcome to this lovely single-story residence situated on a desirable corner lot in Surprise! Upon arrival, you will immediately notice a carport parking & a welcoming front porch that hints at the charm within. Enjoy the large great room featuring wood flooring, custom paint, and vaulted ceilings that add to the airy feel. The kitchen comes with plenty of cabinets, matching appliances, and a convenient breakfast bar. Have a good night's sleep in the perfectly sized primary bedroom, which provides a private bathroom with dual sinks. Secondary bedrooms include well-sized closets. A cozy back patio invites you to unwind under the stars. This unit also has a LARGE workshop/storage area. What are you waiting for? BRAND SPANKIN NEW ROOF!

16. 2026-01-11
    listed $89,500 Active 746-char remark

    Show marketing remark (746 chars)

    Welcome to this lovely single-story residence situated on a desirable corner lot in Surprise! Upon arrival, you will immediately notice a carport parking & a welcoming front porch that hints at the charm within. Enjoy the large great room featuring wood flooring, custom paint, and vaulted ceilings that add to the airy feel. The kitchen comes with plenty of cabinets, matching appliances, and a convenient breakfast bar. Have a good night's sleep in the perfectly sized primary bedroom, which provides a private bathroom with dual sinks. Secondary bedrooms include well-sized closets. A cozy back patio invites you to unwind under the stars. This unit also has a LARGE workshop/storage area. What are you waiting for? BRAND SPANKIN NEW ROOF!

17. 2025-10-29
    historical
18. 2025-09-13
    price $99,500
19. 2025-07-25
    price $109,950
20. 2025-05-25
    price $114,000
21. 2025-04-10
    listed $119,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,094
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,453
• − Property taxes: −$1,192
• − Insurance: −$398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,847
• − Management: −$1,847
• − Depreciation: −$2,313
• Taxable income: $11,043
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,650
• After-tax cash flow: $9,001/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story manufactured home in Surprise is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It has a good exterior, interior walls, and flooring. The home is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that would significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Improves aesthetics and increases rental value
• Both Update kitchen cabinets — Modernizes kitchen and enhances resale value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood — Improves aesthetics and increases rental value ↑
• Both Update kitchen cabinets — Modernizes kitchen and enhances resale value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 9,765
• Household income: $56,444
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 510.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Arabic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.18%
• Current HPI: 287.1228
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.53%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-33.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $79,500 ARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $85,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-11 Listed $89,500 ARMLS
• 2025-10-29 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-09-13 Price Changed $99,500 ARMLS
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $109,950 ARMLS
• 2025-05-25 Price Changed $114,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-10 Listed $119,000 ARMLS