9272 SW 3rd St #411 · Watergate, FL 33428

$245,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 961 sqft · Condo public records · 170 Days on market

Built 1977 $450/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Excellent opportunity, Investor welcome! No rental restrictions!!. It can be rented right away. Now, has a tenant paying $2,200 per month, lease expires 4/15/27. Ideal 2 bedrooms and 2 bath unit for all ages. On the second floor, with a lot light through out the unit, freshly painted and upgraded kitchen, with granite counters top. Large walk-in closet in the master bedroom, plenty extra storage. In-unit washer and dryer. New Roof placed on 2024, Enjoy the benefits of prime location close to A rated great schools, shops, restaurants. Plenty of open parking and parking located in front of the unit. School buses stop by the community. Aprox. 20 miles to closest airports, colleges and unive

Key facts

• Upgraded kitchen
• Large walk-in closet
• Granite counters

Tags

• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• IN-UNIT WASHER AND DRYER
• NEW ROOF
• PRIME LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-821/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (2.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#585 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hammock Pointe Elementary School (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 958 students, 42% FRL); Eagles Landing Middle School (math 66% / reading 67%, grade A-, #84 of 571 statewide, top 16%, 1,508 students, 27% FRL); Olympic Heights Community High (math 52% / reading 64%, grade C, #120 of 667 statewide, top 18%, 2,602 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 52% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 62% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Palm Beach average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 268 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 10552% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $245k implies a 410% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.20%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-42,111
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-34,191
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33428

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 268
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,395 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,481/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$450
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $-68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,481

Max offer price $232,913

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $70	-5% $1	+0% $-68	+5% $-138	+10% $-207
Rent	-10% $-258	-5% $-163	+0% $-68	+5% $26	+10% $121
Rate	-1.0pp $55	-0.5pp $-6	base $-68	+0.5pp $-132	+1.0pp $-196

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9272 SW 3rd St #413 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	961	$2,500	$2.60	0d	1	0.03mi
9210 SW 3rd St #216 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	961	$2,350	$2.45	26d	1	0.03mi
9200 SW 3rd St #109 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	961	$2,250	$2.34	26d	1	0.05mi
9338 SW 3rd St #508 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	961	$2,300	$2.39	14d	1	0.06mi
9338 SW 3rd St #508 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	961	$2,300	$2.39	15d	1	0.06mi
9374 SW 3rd St Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	961	$2,250	$2.34	0d	2	0.09mi
9162 SW 5th St Unit A Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1039	$2,400	$2.31	26d	1	0.26mi
9260 Boca Vue Dr Boca Raton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1052	$3,306	$3.14	0d	31	0.32mi
9235 SW 8th St Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1045	$2,175	$2.08	12d	4	0.38mi
9235 SW 8th St Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$2,150	$2.39	4d	2	0.38mi
9233 SW 8th St #110 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	979	$1,800	$1.84	9d	1	0.40mi
9440 SW 8th St Boca Raton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	895	$2,400	$2.68	0d	3	0.44mi
9273 SW 8th St Boca Raton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	878	$2,200	$2.51	4d	3	0.46mi
9370 SW 8th St #107 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$2,150	$2.39	16d	1	0.46mi
9370 SW 8th St #107 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	7d	1	0.46mi
9355 SW 8th St Boca Raton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	780	$1,975	$2.53	3d	4	0.50mi
9860 SW 3rd St Boca Raton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1222	$2,631	$2.15	1d	34	0.61mi
22605 SW 66th Ave #206 Boca Raton, FL	1.0	1.5	960	$1,650	$1.72	7d	1	0.68mi
22605 SW 66th Ave #403 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1030	$2,100	$2.04	26d	1	0.68mi
9993 Three Lakes Cir Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	972	$2,600	$2.67	15d	1	0.72mi
9973 Three Lakes Cir Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1026	$2,500	$2.44	26d	1	0.73mi
9921 Three Lakes Cir Unit 9921 Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	967	$2,700	$2.79	26d	1	0.81mi
9915 Sandalfoot Blvd Boca Raton, FL	2.0	1.0	777	$2,000	$2.57	12d	2	0.86mi
9949 Sandalfoot Blvd #531 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	820	$2,200	$2.68	26d	1	0.90mi
9949 Sandalfoot Blvd Boca Raton, FL	2.0	1.5–2.0	818	$2,000	$2.44	14d	2	0.90mi
1620 SW 64th Way Unit H Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$2,250	$2.23	26d	1	0.94mi
23398 SW 57th Ave Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	988	$2,150	$2.18	6d	2	1.09mi
10166 Marlin Cir Unit 2 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	1.0	789	$1,450	$1.84	17d	1	1.09mi
23398 Lyons Rd #309 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	988	$2,200	$2.23	15d	1	1.10mi
9780 Marina Blvd #415 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	955	$2,000	$2.09	26d	1	1.13mi
9466 Boca Cove Cir #310 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	770	$2,000	$2.60	26d	1	1.15mi
9503 Boca Cove Cir #603 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$2,200	$2.41	23d	1	1.17mi
9817 Arbor Oaks Ln Boca Raton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1110	$2,686	$2.42	1d	25	1.19mi
10267 Boca Bnd W Unit G4 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1068	$2,850	$2.67	26d	1	1.19mi
10323 Boca Bnd W Unit K4 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1068	$2,500	$2.34	1d	1	1.24mi
9826 Marina Blvd #1027 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	955	$2,500	$2.62	26d	1	1.26mi
10457 S 228th Ln Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,900	$1.72	9d	1	1.29mi
20927 Sedgewick Dr Unit 20927 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	1.0	908	$1,950	$2.15	26d	1	1.44mi
20940 Uptown Ave Boca Raton, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.0	1227	$3,331	$2.71	1d	49	1.48mi
20867 Wendall Ter Boca Raton, FL	2.0	1.5	908	$1,800	$1.98	26d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $450 · $5,400/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-04-29
   historical $2,300
2. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-31
   listed $2,300
4. 2026-03-31
   historical $2,400
5. 2026-03-17
   listed $2,400
6. 2026-03-17
   historical $2,400
7. 2026-02-25
   price $2,400
8. 2026-02-22
   price $245,000
9. 2026-02-20
   price $249,000
10. 2026-02-20
    status Active
11. 2026-01-21
    listed $2,500
12. 2026-01-21
    historical $2,500
13. 2026-01-17
    listed $2,500
14. 2026-01-15
    historical Active Under Contract
15. 2026-01-08
    status Pending
16. 2026-01-04
    price $257,000
17. 2026-01-04
    price $249,000
18. 2026-01-04
    price $255,000
19. 2025-12-13
    price $247,000
20. 2025-11-03
    price $249,000
21. 2025-10-19
    listed $249,225 Active
22. 2024-10-31
    historical
23. 2024-10-03
    status Active
24. 2024-09-30
    status Pending
25. 2024-09-29
    price $267,000
26. 2024-06-27
    listed $268,000 Active
27. 2000-11-20
    soldstatus $48,000
28. 1992-01-07
    soldstatus $38,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,481 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,034 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: +$552/yr (+$46/mo · 37.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,738
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$1,481
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,299
• − Management: −$2,299
• − HOA: −$5,400
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$4,818
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,156
• After-tax cash flow: $335/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — Watergate

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #585
• US rank: #11201

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Palm Beach County · 1,438,312 people
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,588
• Household income: $88,543
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1990.0

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Two or more races 23% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 12% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 37% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -299.00%
• Current HPI: 373.2649
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.72%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-94.1% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Rental Removed $2,300 RMLSFL
• 2026-04-15 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed for Rent $2,300 RMLSFL
• 2026-03-31 Rental Removed $2,400 RMLSFL
• 2026-03-17 Listed for Rent $2,400 RMLSFL
• 2026-03-17 Rental Removed $2,400 GFLMLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $2,400 GFLMLS
• 2026-02-22 Price Changed $245,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $249,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-02-20 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed for Rent $2,500 GFLMLS
• 2026-01-21 Rental Removed $2,500 RMLSFL
• 2026-01-17 Listed for Rent $2,500 RMLSFL
• 2026-01-15 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2026-01-08 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2026-01-04 Price Changed $257,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-01-04 Price Changed $249,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-01-04 Price Changed $255,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-12-13 Price Changed $247,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $249,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-10-19 Listed $249,225 Beaches MLS
• 2024-10-31 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2024-10-03 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2024-09-30 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2024-09-29 Price Changed $267,000 Beaches MLS
• 2024-06-27 Listed $268,000 Beaches MLS
• 2000-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 1992-01-07 Sold (Public Records) $38,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,481 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.