10816 Mandalay Dr · Dallas, TX 75228

$165,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 182 Days on market

Built 1955 8,451 sqft lot $153/sqft · 34% below area Est $249k · 34% under ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HANDYMAN SPECIAL, PIER AND BEAM, CARPET BRICK GOOD FIX AND FLIP PROPERTY

Key facts

• 8,451 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1955

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $159 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.3% in Dallas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#24 in TX, #1,380 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Dallas ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #559 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.8%/yr); 306 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.12%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,270
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -33.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10816 Mandalay Dr	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (0%)	1mo	$165,000	$153	94
10815 Ruth Ann Dr	0.16mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,069 (-1%)	4mo	$195,000	$182	83
10853 Sharondale Ln	0.14mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,152 (+7%)	1mo	$195,000	$169	76
3132 Gus Thomasson Rd	0.24mi	2/1.0	1,191 (+10%)	3mo	$159,000	$134	69
3227 Mayhew Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+7%)	3mo	$260,000	$226	67
3123 San Paula Ave	0.33mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,158 (+7%)	2mo	$289,900	$250	66
10618 Cotillion Dr	0.42mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,124 (+4%)	1mo	$205,000	$182	66
3203 San Lucas Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+7%)	1mo	$300,000	$260	63
4518 Motley Dr	0.57mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,018 (-6%)	0mo	$200,000	$196	57
10465 Ferguson Rd	0.71mi	2/1.0	1,010 (-6%)	4mo	$193,000	$191	53
3317 Trinidad Dr	0.71mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,000 (-7%)	3mo	$240,000	$240	45
3102 Santa Teresa Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,224 (+13%)	3mo	$308,000	$252	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-21,597
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-24,972
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75228

• Rents YoY: -4.8%
• Active inventory: 306
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,715 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$262 /mo · $3,145/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,514

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3216 San Vicente Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	1.0	1209	$2,250	$1.86	4d	1	0.23mi
10830 Cotillion Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,795	$1.50	24d	1	0.29mi
3230 San Lucas Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	1.0	1164	$2,000	$1.72	18d	1	0.32mi
10858 Cassandra Way Dallas, TX	3.0	1.5	1439	$1,850	$1.29	17d	1	0.61mi
3064 Clover Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.5	1334	$1,795	$1.35	7d	1	0.67mi
3064 Clover Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.5	1334	$1,795	$1.35	10d	1	0.67mi
2709 Highwood Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	1.0	1116	$1,695	$1.52	24d	1	0.67mi
3253 Millmar Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,795	$1.42	17d	1	0.68mi
10465 Ferguson Rd Dallas, TX	3.0	1.0	1010	$1,750	$1.73	43d	1	0.73mi
10425 Ferguson Rd Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	916	$1,753	$1.91	43d	1	0.78mi
2938 Healey Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,095	$1.50	43d	1	0.78mi
10852 Shiloh Rd Unit 403 Dallas, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	24d	1	0.81mi
10852 Shiloh Rd Unit 404 Dallas, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	43d	1	0.81mi
10850 Shiloh Rd Unit 303 Dallas, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	24d	1	0.81mi
10850 Shiloh Rd Dallas, TX	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,300	$1.08	24d	1	0.82mi
3057 Dogwood Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.0	1348	$1,575	$1.17	7d	1	0.87mi
3022 Larry Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,949	$1.73	1d	1	0.88mi
2405 Glengariff Dr Dallas, TX	1.0	1.0	1154	$750	$0.65	2d	1	0.90mi
2510 Materhorn Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1452	$2,195	$1.51	3d	1	0.91mi
2414 San Medina Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	1.5	1231	$2,100	$1.71	6d	1	0.92mi
3720 Oates Dr Mesquite, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	878	$1,358	$1.55	24d	2	0.96mi
10911 Visalia Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	1.0	1385	$1,925	$1.39	43d	1	0.97mi
2508 Hillglenn Rd Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1392	$2,050	$1.47	7d	1	1.09mi
11220 Visalia Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,970	$1.61	43d	1	1.10mi
2811 Tisinger Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	1.0	1248	$1,925	$1.54	7d	1	1.11mi
11211 Ulloa Ln Dallas, TX	3.0	1.0	1151	$1,683	$1.46	12d	1	1.13mi
2640 Glenmore Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,950	$1.33	24d	1	1.14mi
2729 Lockhart Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1238	$2,300	$1.86	18d	1	1.16mi
2729 Lockhart Ave Unit NA Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1238	$2,300	$1.86	24d	1	1.16mi
2118 Norwood Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,895	$1.69	2d	1	1.17mi
3412 Beth Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.0	1148	$1,795	$1.56	43d	1	1.19mi
2114 Dunloe Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	1.5	1133	$1,800	$1.59	43d	1	1.23mi
11111 Woodmeadow Pkwy Dallas, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	749	$1,375	$1.83	3d	10	1.24mi
11111 Woodmeadow Pkwy Dallas, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	749	$1,785	$2.38	43d	10	1.24mi
11211 Stallcup Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	1.0	1111	$1,950	$1.76	43d	1	1.24mi
11011 Woodmeadow Pkwy Dallas, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	864	$1,763	$2.04	2d	4	1.25mi
10205 San Juan Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,225	$1.53	24d	1	1.27mi
11209 Joaquin Dr Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0	828	$1,600	$1.93	3d	1	1.27mi
2251 Hartline Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1468	$2,500	$1.70	16d	1	1.28mi
10308 Lavano Ln Dallas, TX	3.0	1.0	1437	$1,950	$1.36	43d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 72-char remark

   Show marketing remark (72 chars)

   HANDYMAN SPECIAL, PIER AND BEAM, CARPET BRICK GOOD FIX AND FLIP PROPERTY

2. 2026-03-09
   price $165,000 72-char remark

   Show marketing remark (72 chars)

   HANDYMAN SPECIAL, PIER AND BEAM, CARPET BRICK GOOD FIX AND FLIP PROPERTY

3. 2026-01-12
   price $175,000 72-char remark

   Show marketing remark (72 chars)

   HANDYMAN SPECIAL, PIER AND BEAM, CARPET BRICK GOOD FIX AND FLIP PROPERTY

4. 2025-11-17
   listed $195,000 Active 72-char remark

   Show marketing remark (72 chars)

   HANDYMAN SPECIAL, PIER AND BEAM, CARPET BRICK GOOD FIX AND FLIP PROPERTY

5. 2025-11-16
   historical
6. 2025-10-20
   price $210,000
7. 2025-09-15
   listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,145 · $262/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,145 · $262/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,579
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$3,145
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,646
• − Management: −$1,646
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$726
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$174
• After-tax cash flow: $2,078/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dallas ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,881
• Composite: 28.41/100
• National rank: #6763
• State rank: #559 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dallas

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #1380

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dallas, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 1,168,437
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 67,714
• Household income: $62,667
• Rent vs Own: 50.8% rent · 49.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 3281.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 56% Two or more races 32% White 20% Black 19% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 48%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 48% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -319.11%
• Current HPI: 354.1624
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.85%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-26.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $165,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $195,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-16 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $210,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-15 Listed $225,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,145 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.