7810 W Twin Canal Ln · Sugarmill Woods, FL 34448

$104,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 768 sqft · Manufactured public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1986 0.50 ac lot Est $96k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• ARV discount +3.3/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Precious and Newly Renovated Mobile Home. 2 bedroom, 1.5 bathroom, 1 car carport. Located less than 2 miles from the Chassahowitzka River. Remodeled Kitchen with appliances, New Lighting, New Floors, New Plumbing, Home has a Metal Roof, New bathrooms with new sinks, toilets, and vanities, New Paint, New carpet, New doors, Nicely landscaped, additional utility room with laundry hook up, perfect size for a workshop! Freshly Limerocked Road paid for by the seller! Can access Property from two different streets so no neighbors are directly behind you!

Key facts

• Close to rivers
• New fence and gate
• No hoa restrictions

Tags

• HALF AN ACRE
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEW FENCE AND GATE
• NO HOA RESTRICTIONS
• CLOSE TO NUMEROUS SPRINGS
• CLOSE TO RIVERS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0.5 acre (dimensions 136 x 160); Mature landscaping; Dirt road access; Property on a dead-end street; Flood insurance required
• Financial info:
• HOA & community: No HOA association indicated

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security:
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; High-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; Residential property; Fixer condition; One story; Faces north
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Sliding doors

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room and dining room combined
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $613 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 4.0% in Sugarmill Woods — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#825 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Homosassa Elementary School (math 62% / reading 47%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 411 students, 78% FRL); Crystal River Middle School (math 49% / reading 47%, grade C-, #286 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 900 students, 64% FRL); Crystal River High School (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 1,249 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 311 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $725 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,753 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.77%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $96,000
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7749 W Chassahowitzka St	0.15mi	3/1.5 (+1)	720 (-6%)	0mo	$112,500	$156	78
11351 S Ann Pt	0.33mi	2/1.0	720 (-6%)	10mo	$90,000	$125	64
7749 W Chassahowitzka St	0.15mi	3/1.5 (+1)	720 (-6%)	19mo	$75,000	$104	62
11350 S Lily Pad Pt	0.35mi	2/1.0	700 (-9%)	12mo	$80,000	$114	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $22,065
• Equity at exit: $15,641

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.37×
• Total profit: $69,522
• Equity at exit: $9,070

Cash invested: $29,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34448

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Active inventory: 311
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,648 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $341/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $613

Break-even live

Break-even rent $872

Max offer price $104,900

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $673	-5% $643	+0% $613	+5% $584	+10% $554
Rent	-10% $483	-5% $548	+0% $613	+5% $678	+10% $743
Rate	-1.0pp $666	-0.5pp $640	base $613	+0.5pp $586	+1.0pp $558

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,225
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7749 W Chassahowitzka St Homosassa, FL	3.0	1.5	720	$1,350	$1.88	19d	1	0.11mi
10007 S Riviera Pt Homosassa, FL	2.0	2.0	952	$1,600	$1.68	5d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $104,900 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $104,900 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,900 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,900 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,900 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,900 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $104,900 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $108,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $108,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $108,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $108,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $108,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $108,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $108,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $108,000 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $108,000 Active 27 DOM
17. 2026-05-03
    listed $108,000 Active
18. 2019-07-16
    soldstatus $75,000
19. 2019-07-12
    soldstatus $75,000 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    Precious and Newly Renovated Mobile Home. 2 bedroom, 1.5 bathroom, 1 car carport. Located less than 2 miles from the Chassahowitzka River. Remodeled Kitchen with appliances, New Lighting, New Floors, New Plumbing, Home has a Metal Roof, New bathrooms with new sinks, toilets, and vanities, New Paint, New carpet, New doors, Nicely landscaped, additional utility room with laundry hook up, perfect size for a workshop! Freshly Limerocked Road paid for by the seller! Can access Property from two different streets so no neighbors are directly behind you!

20. 2019-07-12
    soldstatus $75,000 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    Precious and Newly Renovated Mobile Home. 2 bedroom, 1.5 bathroom, 1 car carport. Located less than 2 miles from the Chassahowitzka River. Remodeled Kitchen with appliances, New Lighting, New Floors, New Plumbing, Home has a Metal Roof, New bathrooms with new sinks, toilets, and vanities, New Paint, New carpet, New doors, Nicely landscaped, additional utility room with laundry hook up, perfect size for a workshop! Freshly Limerocked Road paid for by the seller! Can access Property from two different streets so no neighbors are directly behind you!

21. 2019-07-12
    soldstatus $75,000

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    Precious and Newly Renovated Mobile Home. 2 bedroom, 1.5 bathroom, 1 car carport. Located less than 2 miles from the Chassahowitzka River. Remodeled Kitchen with appliances, New Lighting, New Floors, New Plumbing, Home has a Metal Roof, New bathrooms with new sinks, toilets, and vanities, New Paint, New carpet, New doors, Nicely landscaped, additional utility room with laundry hook up, perfect size for a workshop! Freshly Limerocked Road paid for by the seller! Can access Property from two different streets so no neighbors are directly behind you!

22. 2019-01-28
    listed $75,000
23. 2019-01-25
    listed $75,000 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    Precious and Newly Renovated Mobile Home. 2 bedroom, 1.5 bathroom, 1 car carport. Located less than 2 miles from the Chassahowitzka River. Remodeled Kitchen with appliances, New Lighting, New Floors, New Plumbing, Home has a Metal Roof, New bathrooms with new sinks, toilets, and vanities, New Paint, New carpet, New doors, Nicely landscaped, additional utility room with laundry hook up, perfect size for a workshop! Freshly Limerocked Road paid for by the seller! Can access Property from two different streets so no neighbors are directly behind you!

24. 2019-01-25
    listed $75,000 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    Precious and Newly Renovated Mobile Home. 2 bedroom, 1.5 bathroom, 1 car carport. Located less than 2 miles from the Chassahowitzka River. Remodeled Kitchen with appliances, New Lighting, New Floors, New Plumbing, Home has a Metal Roof, New bathrooms with new sinks, toilets, and vanities, New Paint, New carpet, New doors, Nicely landscaped, additional utility room with laundry hook up, perfect size for a workshop! Freshly Limerocked Road paid for by the seller! Can access Property from two different streets so no neighbors are directly behind you!

25. 2019-01-23
    historical
26. 2018-06-06
    listed $79,900
27. 1996-11-01
    soldstatus $23,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $341 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $871 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$529/yr (+$44/mo · 155.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,778
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$341
• − Insurance: −$1,322
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,582
• − Management: −$1,582
• − Depreciation: −$3,052
• Taxable income: $6,022
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,445
• After-tax cash flow: $5,914/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sugarmill Woods

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #825
• US rank: #20184

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 18,797
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 10,817
• Household income: $45,916
• Rent vs Own: 14.6% rent · 85.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 113.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.27%
• Current HPI: 312.4302
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+369.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Listed $108,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2019-07-12 Sold (MLS) $75,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-12 Sold (MLS) $75,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2019-07-12 Sold (MLS) $75,000 HCAR
• 2019-01-28 Listed $75,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-25 Listed $75,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2019-01-25 Listed $75,000 HCAR
• 2019-01-23 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2018-06-06 Listed $79,900 HCAR
• 1996-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $341 · +22.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.