68 Foster Ave #13 · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$850,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,125 sqft · Condo · 183 Days on market

Built 2021 Excellent condition $756/sqft · 8% below area Est $924k · 8% under $827/mo HOA · 11% of rent ↓ 56% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Mint-Condition Condo with Pool & Dock - 1.5 miles from the Ocean Beach This sleek, beautifully-maintained condo - the only two-bedroom unit currently available at Ponquogue Point - offers the best of Hampton Bays living on Shinnecock Bay. Enjoy access to a community pool and shared dock, along with easy proximity to both ocean & bay beaches. The sunny, corner unit features a well-appointed great room with gourmet kitchen, sliders to a private yard, and two bedrooms upstairs. And a full-height basement provides the potential for additional living space. Beautifully positioned near the Coast Guard station, Dune Road, marinas, beloved local restaurants, and a nearby fish market, this is a true coastal retreat.

Key facts

• Shared dock
• Coastal retreat
• Community pool

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• SHARED DOCK
• PRIVATE YARD
• FULL-HEIGHT BASEMENT
• COASTAL RETREAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $850k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-126 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $828k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $740k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $740k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 68d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 88% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,403/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($748k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $95k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $740,299 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.63%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $923,577
• List price: $850,000
• Delta: 2.32%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18 Alanson Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+24%)	6mo	$985,000	$704	56
39 Lynncliff Rd	1.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,112 (-1%)	2mo	$790,000	$710	54
47 Rampasture Rd Apt M	1.09mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (-2%)	5mo	$730,000	$664	50
4 Holiday Ct	1.02mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,097 (-2%)	8mo	$700,000	$638	47
7 Harvard Dr	0.82mi	2/2.0	1,228 (+9%)	3mo	$815,000	$664	45
4 Wells Ln	0.64mi	2/1.5	1,378 (+22%)	2mo	$1,115,000	$809	43
165 Springville Rd Unit A	1.20mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,242 (+10%)	0mo	$737,000	$593	42
38 Woodridge Rd	1.26mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (+7%)	8mo	$825,000	$688	40
56 W Donellan Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,340 (+19%)	3mo	$795,000	$593	32
12 Hampton Bays Dr	0.88mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (+17%)	4mo	$967,500	$733	30
6 Westerly Ct	1.04mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,276 (+13%)	8mo	$755,000	$592	29
40 Donellan Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (+25%)	8mo	$935,000	$666	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-106,448
• Equity at exit: $126,738

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $75,765
• Equity at exit: $73,492

Cash invested: $238,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,403 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,457
• Tax from tax record: −$335 /mo · $4,025/yr
• Insurance: −$354
• HOA: −$827
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,555
• Net cashflow: $-126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,562

Max offer price $827,790

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $355	-5% $115	+0% $-126	+5% $-366	+10% $-607
Rent	-10% $-711	-5% $-418	+0% $-126	+5% $167	+10% $459
Rate	-1.0pp $302	-0.5pp $90	base $-126	+0.5pp $-346	+1.0pp $-570

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $212,500
• Closing costs: $25,500
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
68 Foster Ave #12 Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.5	1125	$18,000	$16.00	37d	1	0.03mi
25 Gardners Ln Unit A Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.5	1000	$3,500	$3.50	38d	1	0.32mi
30 Norbury Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1092	$4,000	$3.66	4d	1	0.37mi
35 Gardners Ln Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1500	$25,000	$16.67	37d	1	0.39mi
3 Foster Ave Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1400	$5,000	$3.57	93d	1	0.52mi
94 Bay Ave E Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$20,000	$20.00	64d	1	0.65mi
229 Springville Rd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1200	$6,000	$5.00	68d	1	0.71mi
121 Ponquogue Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1316	$27,000	$20.52	73d	1	0.84mi
21 Duvall Dr Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.0	810	$25,000	$30.86	37d	1	0.88mi
40 Kyle Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1320	$5,000	$3.79	93d	1	0.93mi
6 Long Ln Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1163	$40,000	$34.39	73d	1	1.00mi
6 Lynn Ct Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1212	$2,900	$2.39	0d	1	1.03mi
28 Bay Ave W Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	945	$66,000	$69.84	93d	1	1.13mi
71 Hampton Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	1500	$18,000	$12.00	73d	1	1.16mi
38 Woodridge Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.0	1398	$8,000	$5.72	73d	1	1.25mi
29 Maryland Blvd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1262	$7,500	$5.94	38d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail $827/mo · $9,924/yr condo

• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   pricedays on market $850,000 Active 183 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $945,000 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $945,000 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $945,000 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $945,000 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $945,000 Active 175 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $945,000 Active 174 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $945,000 Active 173 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $945,000 Active 172 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $945,000 Active 170 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $945,000 Active 168 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $945,000 Active 167 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $945,000 Active 166 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $945,000 Active 165 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $945,000 Active 164 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $945,000 Active 162 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $945,000 Active 161 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $945,000 Active 160 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $945,000 Active 159 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $945,000 Active 158 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $945,000 Active 157 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $945,000 Active 156 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $945,000 Active 155 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $945,000 Active 154 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $945,000 Active 153 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $945,000 Active 151 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $945,000 Active 150 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $945,000 Active 149 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $945,000 Active 148 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $945,000 Active 147 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $945,000 Active 146 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $945,000 Active 145 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $945,000 Active 144 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $945,000 Active 143 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $945,000 Active 142 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $945,000 Active 141 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $945,000 Active 140 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $945,000 Active 138 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $945,000 Active 136 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $945,000 Active 135 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $945,000 Active 132 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $945,000 Active 131 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $945,000 Active 130 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $945,000 Active 129 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $945,000 Active 127 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $945,000 Active 126 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $945,000 Active 123 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $945,000 Active 122 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $945,000 Active 121 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $945,000 Active 118 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,025 · $335/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,195 · $766/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,170/yr (+$431/mo · 128.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 55% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥90°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $88,836
• − Mortgage interest: −$47,613
• − Property taxes: −$4,025
• − Insurance: −$4,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,107
• − Management: −$7,107
• − HOA: −$9,924
• − Depreciation: −$24,727
• Taxable loss: −$15,917
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,820
• After-tax cash flow: $2,311/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This mint-condition townhouse is move-in ready with a beautiful coastal location and modern amenities.

Components & finishes AI

Roof shingle · good Flooring wood

Deferred maintenance Est. $500–$2,000 screening

• Minor Roof (roof) — No visible signs of damage or wear on the roof.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Resale Updating the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hampton Bays Elementary School F NY #1,361/2,108 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Hampton Bays Middle School F NY #522/729 Nat'l #8,497/14,009 High Hampton Bays High School A- NY #580/1,100 Nat'l #1,359/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 1,505,262 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-56.2% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Listed $945,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $850,000 Public Records
• 2024-07-29 Sold (MLS) $850,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-29 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-29 Price Changed $899,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-18 Price Changed $899,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-16 Price Changed $950,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-26 Price Changed $999,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-01 Price Changed $840,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-17 Price Changed $750,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-08 Price Changed $860,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-25 Listed $925,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $17,232,832 Public Records
• 2017-01-03 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-19 Listed $625,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-25 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-09 Listed $625,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $4,100,000 Public Records
• 2013-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $2,000,000 Public Records
• 2013-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $2,160,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $4,025 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.