68 Foster Ave #13 · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$945,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,125 sqft · SingleFamily · 132 Days on market

Built 2021 $840/sqft · at area comps Est $931k · at est. $753/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 56% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Mint-Condition Condo with Pool & Dock - 1.5 miles from the Ocean Beach This sleek, beautifully-maintained condo - the only two-bedroom unit currently available at Ponquogue Point - offers the best of Hampton Bays living on Shinnecock Bay. Enjoy access to a community pool and shared dock, along with easy proximity to both ocean & bay beaches. The sunny, corner unit features a well-appointed great room with gourmet kitchen, sliders to a private yard, and two bedrooms upstairs. And a full-height basement provides the potential for additional living space. Beautifully positioned near the Coast Guard station, Dune Road, marinas, beloved local restaurants, and a nearby fish market, this is a true coastal retreat.

Key facts

• Shared dock
• Coastal retreat
• Community pool

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• SHARED DOCK
• PRIVATE YARD
• FULL-HEIGHT BASEMENT
• COASTAL RETREAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $945k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-466 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $863k (8.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $756k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $756k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,559/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($832k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $755,913 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.11%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $930,575
• List price: $945,000
• Delta: 1.55%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
51A Foster Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,174 (+4%)	17mo	$895,000	$762	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-142,815
• Equity at exit: $140,903

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $19,463
• Equity at exit: $81,706

Cash invested: $264,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,559 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,956
• Tax from tax record: −$335 /mo · $4,025/yr
• Insurance: −$394
• HOA: −$753
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,587
• Net cashflow: $-466

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,149

Max offer price $862,653

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $236,250
• Closing costs: $28,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
68 Foster Ave #12 Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.5	1125	$18,000	$16.00	44d	1	0.03mi
25 Gardners Ln Unit A Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.5	1000	$3,750	$3.75	24d	1	0.32mi
3 Foster Ave Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1400	$5,000	$3.57	44d	1	0.52mi
94 Bay Ave E Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$20,000	$20.00	15d	1	0.65mi
229 Springville Rd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1200	$6,000	$5.00	19d	1	0.71mi
121 Ponquogue Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1316	$27,000	$20.52	24d	1	0.84mi
40 Kyle Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1320	$5,000	$3.79	44d	1	0.93mi
6 Long Ln Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1163	$40,000	$34.39	24d	1	1.00mi
6 Lynn Ct Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1212	$2,900	$2.39	44d	1	1.03mi
28 Bay Ave W Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	945	$66,000	$69.84	44d	1	1.13mi
71 Hampton Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	1500	$18,000	$12.00	24d	1	1.16mi
38 Woodridge Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.0	1398	$8,000	$5.72	24d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $753 · $9,036/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $945,000 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $945,000 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $945,000 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $945,000 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $945,000 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $945,000 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $945,000 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $945,000 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $945,000 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $945,000 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $945,000 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $945,000 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $945,000 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $945,000 Active 114 DOM
15. 2026-02-06
    listed $945,000 Active 724-char remark

    Show marketing remark (724 chars)

    Mint-Condition Condo with Pool & Dock - 1.5 miles from the Ocean Beach This sleek, beautifully-maintained condo - the only two-bedroom unit currently available at Ponquogue Point - offers the best of Hampton Bays living on Shinnecock Bay. Enjoy access to a community pool and shared dock, along with easy proximity to both ocean & bay beaches. The sunny, corner unit features a well-appointed great room with gourmet kitchen, sliders to a private yard, and two bedrooms upstairs. And a full-height basement provides the potential for additional living space. Beautifully positioned near the Coast Guard station, Dune Road, marinas, beloved local restaurants, and a nearby fish market, this is a true coastal retreat.

16. 2024-10-16
    soldstatus $850,000
17. 2024-07-29
    soldstatus $850,000 Closed 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Indulge in luxurious living in this custom 1,125 sq ft townhouse, the open-concept living area features a custom coastal kitchen and a cozy atmosphere just off the quaint green backyard. Unit 13 has plenty of ambient light and partial southern exposure. Upstairs you will find the 2 Bedrooms with the Primary giving you access to the east-facing balcony.

18. 2024-05-29
    status Pending 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Indulge in luxurious living in this custom 1,125 sq ft townhouse, the open-concept living area features a custom coastal kitchen and a cozy atmosphere just off the quaint green backyard. Unit 13 has plenty of ambient light and partial southern exposure. Upstairs you will find the 2 Bedrooms with the Primary giving you access to the east-facing balcony.

19. 2023-10-29
    price $899,000 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Indulge in luxurious living in this custom 1,125 sq ft townhouse, the open-concept living area features a custom coastal kitchen and a cozy atmosphere just off the quaint green backyard. Unit 13 has plenty of ambient light and partial southern exposure. Upstairs you will find the 2 Bedrooms with the Primary giving you access to the east-facing balcony.

20. 2023-10-18
    price $899,999 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Indulge in luxurious living in this custom 1,125 sq ft townhouse, the open-concept living area features a custom coastal kitchen and a cozy atmosphere just off the quaint green backyard. Unit 13 has plenty of ambient light and partial southern exposure. Upstairs you will find the 2 Bedrooms with the Primary giving you access to the east-facing balcony.

21. 2023-06-16
    price $950,000 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Indulge in luxurious living in this custom 1,125 sq ft townhouse, the open-concept living area features a custom coastal kitchen and a cozy atmosphere just off the quaint green backyard. Unit 13 has plenty of ambient light and partial southern exposure. Upstairs you will find the 2 Bedrooms with the Primary giving you access to the east-facing balcony.

22. 2023-05-26
    price $999,000 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Indulge in luxurious living in this custom 1,125 sq ft townhouse, the open-concept living area features a custom coastal kitchen and a cozy atmosphere just off the quaint green backyard. Unit 13 has plenty of ambient light and partial southern exposure. Upstairs you will find the 2 Bedrooms with the Primary giving you access to the east-facing balcony.

23. 2023-04-01
    price $840,000 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Indulge in luxurious living in this custom 1,125 sq ft townhouse, the open-concept living area features a custom coastal kitchen and a cozy atmosphere just off the quaint green backyard. Unit 13 has plenty of ambient light and partial southern exposure. Upstairs you will find the 2 Bedrooms with the Primary giving you access to the east-facing balcony.

24. 2022-11-17
    price $750,000 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Indulge in luxurious living in this custom 1,125 sq ft townhouse, the open-concept living area features a custom coastal kitchen and a cozy atmosphere just off the quaint green backyard. Unit 13 has plenty of ambient light and partial southern exposure. Upstairs you will find the 2 Bedrooms with the Primary giving you access to the east-facing balcony.

25. 2022-10-08
    price $860,000 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Indulge in luxurious living in this custom 1,125 sq ft townhouse, the open-concept living area features a custom coastal kitchen and a cozy atmosphere just off the quaint green backyard. Unit 13 has plenty of ambient light and partial southern exposure. Upstairs you will find the 2 Bedrooms with the Primary giving you access to the east-facing balcony.

26. 2022-05-25
    listed $925,000 Active 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Indulge in luxurious living in this custom 1,125 sq ft townhouse, the open-concept living area features a custom coastal kitchen and a cozy atmosphere just off the quaint green backyard. Unit 13 has plenty of ambient light and partial southern exposure. Upstairs you will find the 2 Bedrooms with the Primary giving you access to the east-facing balcony.

27. 2021-06-07
    soldstatus $17,232,832
28. 2017-01-03
    historical
29. 2016-04-19
    listed $625,000 New
30. 2015-04-25
    historical
31. 2014-08-09
    listed $625,000
32. 2014-04-22
    soldstatus $4,100,000
33. 2013-10-22
    soldstatus $2,000,000
34. 2013-07-03
    soldstatus $2,160,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,025 · $335/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,998 · $833/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,973/yr (+$498/mo · 148.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 55% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥90°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $90,710
• − Mortgage interest: −$52,935
• − Property taxes: −$4,025
• − Insurance: −$4,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,257
• − Management: −$7,257
• − HOA: −$9,036
• − Depreciation: −$27,491
• Taxable loss: −$22,016
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,284
• After-tax cash flow: $-310/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-56.2% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Listed $945,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $850,000 Public Records
• 2024-07-29 Sold (MLS) $850,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-29 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-29 Price Changed $899,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-18 Price Changed $899,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-16 Price Changed $950,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-26 Price Changed $999,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-01 Price Changed $840,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-17 Price Changed $750,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-08 Price Changed $860,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-25 Listed $925,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $17,232,832 Public Records
• 2017-01-03 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-19 Listed $625,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-25 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-09 Listed $625,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $4,100,000 Public Records
• 2013-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $2,000,000 Public Records
• 2013-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $2,160,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $4,025 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.