Aster Plan · Fulshear, TX 77441

$297,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,577 sqft · SingleFamily · 414 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Cash flow +4.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Aster floorplan brings together open-concept living, private bedroom retreats, and flexible spaces in a single-story layout designed to fit your lifestyle.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 413 days

🏗️ New construction. The $297,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $413,944.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $298k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (14.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (24.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Huggins El (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 893 students, 23% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lamar CISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1928 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 77d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($184k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 414 days — a 12% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,737 (24.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 414 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.32%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 15.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $413,944
• List price: $297,990
• Delta: -28.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32507 Midsummer Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,548 (-2%)	6mo	$274,990	$178	79
32419 Sunbeam Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,548 (-2%)	8mo	$281,990	$182	77
5950 Texas Sun Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,615 (+2%)	0mo	$272,490	$169	76
5826 Sunkissed Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,732 (+10%)	2mo	$311,990	$180	74
32427 Sunbeam Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,491 (-6%)	6mo	$297,990	$200	73
32423 Sunbeam Dr	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,674 (+6%)	7mo	$299,990	$179	68
32443 Sunbeam Dr	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,674 (+6%)	8mo	$289,990	$173	66
5431 Tourmaline Way	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,773 (+12%)	10mo	$275,000	$155	56
32326 Melbrooke Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,813 (+15%)	6mo	$279,900	$154	49
5423 Rosser Ruby Way	0.44mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,797 (+14%)	5mo	$265,000	$147	45
32935 Turning Springs Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,785 (+13%)	10mo	$306,900	$172	30
32911 Silver Meadow Way	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,785 (+13%)	10mo	$299,900	$168	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-143,223
• Equity at exit: $61,720

10-year hold

• IRR: -86.6%
• Equity multiple: -1.07×
• Total profit: $-239,570
• Equity at exit: $35,790

Cash invested: $115,904 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 47 active · 18 under contract
• Months of supply: 20.1 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $299,990 ($187/sqft)
• Median days on market: 110 d
• This list price: 45% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +40.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77441

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1928
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,237 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,171
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$517 /mo · $6,209/yr
• Insurance: −$172
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $-1,093

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,621

Max offer price $255,763

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-807	-5% $-950	+0% $-1,093	+5% $-1,236	+10% $-1,379
Rent	-10% $-1,270	-5% $-1,182	+0% $-1,093	+5% $-1,005	+10% $-916
Rate	-1.0pp $-885	-0.5pp $-988	base $-1,093	+0.5pp $-1,200	+1.0pp $-1,310

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,486
• Closing costs: $12,418
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7422 French Quarter Ct Fulshear, TX	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,895	$1.37	106d	1	1.37mi
7422 French Quarter Ct Fulshear, TX	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,895	$1.37	76d	1	1.37mi
31707 Melkridge Rd Fulshear, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,300	$1.10	38d	1	1.42mi
31419 Horseshoe Meadow Bend Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0	2.0	1588	$2,100	$1.32	10d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $297,990 Active 414 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $297,990 Active 413 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $297,990 Active 412 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $297,990 Active 411 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $297,990 Active 410 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $297,990 Active 408 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $297,990 Active 407 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $297,990 Active 406 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $297,990 Active 405 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $297,990 Active 404 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $297,990 Active 403 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $297,990 Active 402 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $297,990 Active 401 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $297,990 Active 400 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $297,990 Active 399 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $297,990 Active 398 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $297,990 Active 397 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $297,990 Active 396 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $297,990 Active 395 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $297,990 Active 394 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $297,990 Active 393 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $297,990 Active 392 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $297,990 Active 391 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $297,990 Active 390 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $297,990 Active 389 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $297,990 Active 388 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $297,990 Active 387 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $297,990 Active 386 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $297,990 Active 385 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $297,990 Active 384 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $297,990 Active 383 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $297,990 Active 382 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $297,990 Active 381 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $297,990 Active 380 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $297,990 Active 379 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $297,990 Active 378 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $297,990 Active 377 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $297,990 Active 376 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $297,990 Active 375 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $297,990 Active 374 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $297,990 Active 373 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $297,990 Active 372 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $297,990 Active 371 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $297,990 Active 370 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $297,990 Active 369 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $297,990 Active 368 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $297,990 Active 367 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $297,990 Active 366 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $297,990 Active 365 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $297,990 Active 363 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,848
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,187
• − Property taxes: −$6,209
• − Insurance: −$2,070
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,148
• − Management: −$2,148
• − Depreciation: −$12,042
• Taxable loss: −$20,955
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,029
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,088/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,885–$23,655 screening

The home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. Minor cosmetic updates and landscaping improvements would significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance and tune-up — Improves comfort and reduces utility costs ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 63/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Huggins El B TX #321/4,322 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle Dean Leaman J H School B TX #206/1,662 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Foster H S B TX #141/1,632 Nat'l #2,354/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Fulshear

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 41,324
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,324
• Household income: $184,390
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
• Current HPI: 275.8798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-20 Listed $297,990 Zillow