2006 Foxhurst Dr · Shively, KY 40216

$214,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,669 sqft · SingleFamily · 124 Days on market

Built 1968 8,024 sqft lot Est $204k · 5% over ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BACK ON MARKET AT NO FAULT TO SELLER! Spacious quad-level home offering three bedrooms plus a versatile bonus room that could easily function as a fourth bedroom. Multiple living areas create a flexible layout ideal for everyday living, entertaining, or working from home. Situated on a desirable double lot, the property includes a shed and carport, providing ample storage and outdoor space. The home has been well maintained by the current owner and is ready for fresh updates, offering a perfect blank canvas for its next owner to make it their own. Conveniently located near shopping, restaurants, and additional amenities - this one is sure not to last. Property is being sold AS-IS.

Key facts

• Outdoor space
• Versatile bonus room
• Desirable double lot

Tags

• VERSATILE BONUS ROOM
• MULTIPLE LIVING AREAS
• DESIRABLE DOUBLE LOT
• AMPLE STORAGE
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Heatherfield Estates
• HOA & community: No association fee; No monthly maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Carport with sliding glass door access
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two stories; Entry and main living areas on the first floor; bedrooms on the second floor
• Construction: Built in 1968; Shingle roof; Poured concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Cleared, level lot with sidewalks; Corner lot; Full chain-link fencing; Sidewalks

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms located on the second floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (full bathrooms located on the second floor)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; One HVAC unit
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; Basement family room with fireplace; Sliding glass doors to carport; Bonus room/bedroom in basement; 8 rooms (11 total room count listed); 7 closets; 1 fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room in the basement; First-floor laundry not present

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $214k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($327/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (17.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 5.3% in Shively — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#78 in KY, #2,520 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, employment D, amenities F.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Mill Creek Elementary (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #648 of 676 statewide, top 98%, 474 students, 80% FRL); Frederick Law Olmsted Academy North (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #217 of 217 statewide, top 100%, 510 students, 74% FRL); Western High (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #248 of 254 statewide, top 98%, 869 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 56% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 9% at this address vs 27% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Jefferson County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 210 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,636 (17.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.55%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $203,618
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2109 Crums Ln	0.30mi	3/0.5	1,660 (-0%)	2mo	$162,500	$98	78
2103 Shadow Fern Dr	0.16mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,775 (+6%)	5mo	$215,000	$121	71
4109 Hillview Ave	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,631 (-2%)	2mo	$197,500	$121	70
2128 Middle Ln	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,722 (+3%)	3mo	$228,000	$132	66
2213 Amboy Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,554 (-7%)	11mo	$200,000	$129	61
3309 Fern Lea Rd	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,575 (-6%)	6mo	$185,000	$117	61
4010 Addison Ln	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,715 (+3%)	1mo	$215,000	$125	60
2223 Thistledawn Dr	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,835 (+10%)	6mo	$220,000	$120	60
2218 Mary Catherine Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,854 (+11%)	9mo	$242,200	$131	59
1843 Olenda Ave	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,652 (-1%)	7mo	$190,000	$115	57
2305 Burrell Dr	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,811 (+8%)	10mo	$221,000	$122	52
1818 Mary Catherine Dr	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,490 (-11%)	6mo	$220,000	$148	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-37,219
• Equity at exit: $31,908

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-46,896
• Equity at exit: $18,503

Cash invested: $59,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40216

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,776 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,122
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,976/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,742

Max offer price $214,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $148	-5% $88	+0% $27	+5% $-33	+10% $-94
Rent	-10% $-113	-5% $-43	+0% $27	+5% $97	+10% $168
Rate	-1.0pp $135	-0.5pp $82	base $27	+0.5pp $-28	+1.0pp $-85

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,500
• Closing costs: $6,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2008 Foxhurst Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1600	$1,875	$1.17	25d	1	0.01mi
4105 North Ln Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	2229	$2,300	$1.03	5d	1	0.43mi
4403 Savage Dr Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1325	$2,065	$1.56	25d	1	1.09mi
2029 Lynn Lea Rd Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	2248	$1,795	$0.80	5d	1	1.46mi
4330 Bayberry Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1134	$1,395	$1.23	25d	1	1.46mi
1522 Clara Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,150	$1.00	25d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-04-23
   price $214,000
2. 2026-04-02
   status Active
3. 2026-02-28
   historical Active Under Contract
4. 2026-02-25
   status Active
5. 2026-02-15
   historical Active Under Contract
6. 2026-02-11
   price $216,000
7. 2026-01-22
   listed $218,000 Active
8. 2025-10-06
   price $221,700
9. 2025-08-21
   price $222,000
10. 2025-07-20
    price $225,000
11. 2025-06-27
    price $229,000
12. 2025-05-14
    price $235,000
13. 2025-04-26
    price $240,000
14. 2025-03-31
    price $245,000
15. 2025-03-17
    price $255,000
16. 2022-07-20
    soldstatus $210,000 Closed
17. 2022-06-22
    status Pending
18. 2022-06-17
    status Active
19. 2022-06-17
    status Pending
20. 2022-06-13
    historical Active Under Contract
21. 2022-06-08
    listed $200,000 Active
22. 2022-05-18
    status Pending
23. 2022-05-18
    historical
24. 2022-04-25
    price $240,000
25. 2022-04-25
    listed $250,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,976 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,976 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,316
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,987
• − Property taxes: −$1,976
• − Insurance: −$1,070
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,705
• − Management: −$1,705
• − Depreciation: −$6,225
• Taxable loss: −$3,353
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$805
• After-tax cash flow: $1,132/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Shively

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #2520

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shively, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 44,047
• Household income: $56,441
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1434.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 45% White 43% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -234.72%
• Current HPI: 269.5447
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.57%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-10.8% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $214,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-02 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-02-28 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-02-25 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-02-15 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $216,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $218,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $221,700 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $222,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-07-20 Price Changed $225,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-06-27 Price Changed $229,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-05-14 Price Changed $235,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-04-26 Price Changed $240,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-03-31 Price Changed $245,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-03-17 Price Changed $255,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2022-07-20 Sold (MLS) $210,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2022-06-22 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2022-06-17 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2022-06-17 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2022-06-13 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2022-06-08 Listed $200,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2022-05-18 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2022-05-18 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2022-04-25 Listed $250,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2022-04-25 Price Changed $240,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+10.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,976 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.