2404 Nabors Ln · Odessa, TX 79761

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · SingleFamily · 31 Days on market

Built 2026 8,755 sqft lot Est $200k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• ARV discount +3.0/15.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New construction 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring modern finishes and a light, bright interior. This thoughtfully designed home offers an en-suite primary bathroom, functional layout, and convenient laundry closet. With stylish details throughout and a fresh modern feel, this is a great opportunity!

Key facts

• Laundry closet
• Functional layout
• 8,755 sq ft lot

Tags

• EN-SUITE PRIMARY BATHROOM
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• LAUNDRY CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $63 ($760/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ireland El (math 23% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 446 students, 60% FRL); Bonham Middle (math 9% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,616 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 867 students, 65% FRL); Permian H S (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,978 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 95 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,458 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.23%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $200,100
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2908 Dawn Ave	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,152 (+0%)	23mo	$199,900	$174	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-36,733
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-46,588
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79761

• Home prices YoY: -31.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,705 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $455/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,624

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $188	-5% $126	+0% $63	+5% $-250	+10% $-326
Rent	-10% $-71	-5% $-4	+0% $63	+5% $131	+10% $198
Rate	-1.0pp $174	-0.5pp $119	base $63	+0.5pp $6	+1.0pp $-52

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2901 Nabors Ln Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1374	$1,800	$1.31	23d	1	0.16mi
2826 Hilltop Dr Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1307	$2,000	$1.53	15d	1	0.30mi
1409 E 23rd St Odessa, TX	2.0	1.0	1032	$2,400	$2.33	45d	1	0.52mi
2608 Cumberland Rd Odessa, TX	2.0	2.0	1404	$1,500	$1.07	15d	1	0.65mi
2702 S Colonial Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1490	$1,500	$1.01	15d	1	0.67mi
3616 E 30th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,995	$1.39	45d	1	0.86mi
1212 E Century Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1359	$1,300	$0.96	23d	1	0.91mi
3624 Walnut Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1488	$1,950	$1.31	45d	1	1.02mi
3824 Englewood Cir Odessa, TX	2.0	1.5	1150	$1,295	$1.13	15d	1	1.05mi
3902 Englewood Cir Odessa, TX	2.0	1.5	1280	$1,445	$1.13	15d	1	1.08mi
4217 Redbud Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.5	1203	$2,200	$1.83	15d	1	1.09mi
3904 Englewood Cir Odessa, TX	2.0	1.0	1280	$1,445	$1.13	15d	1	1.09mi
3907 Englewood Cir Odessa, TX	2.0	1.5	1170	$1,395	$1.19	15d	1	1.11mi
701 Hillcrest Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,400	$1.04	45d	1	1.12mi
4233 Bonham Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	45d	1	1.12mi
3802 Englewood Cir Odessa, TX	2.0	1.5	1150	$1,295	$1.13	15d	1	1.13mi
1202 E 42nd St Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	45d	1	1.20mi
4256 Bonham Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1261	$1,600	$1.27	23d	1	1.21mi
1219 Milburn Ave Unit K2YBUILDING K Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	895	$1,500	$1.68	45d	1	1.23mi
1215 Milburn Ave Unit J2VBUILDING J Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	895	$1,450	$1.62	45d	1	1.24mi
1215 Milburn Ave Unit J1TBUILDING J Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	895	$1,500	$1.68	45d	1	1.24mi
2705 Cambridge St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,400	$1.65	23d	1	1.25mi
1220 Adams Ave Unit 4 Odessa, TX	4.0	1.0	1063	$1,750	$1.65	45d	1	1.25mi
1220 Adams Ave Unit 3 Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	895	$1,450	$1.62	45d	1	1.25mi
3939 Tanglewood Ln Odessa, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	825	$1,595	$1.93	15d	9	1.27mi
1115 Milburn Ave Odessa, TX	4.0	1.0	895	$1,800	$2.01	23d	1	1.27mi
1115 Milburn Ave Odessa, TX	4.0	1.0	895	$1,800	$2.01	45d	1	1.27mi
1015 Milburn Ave Unit A1DBuilding A Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	895	$1,500	$1.68	15d	1	1.30mi
1015 Milburn Ave Unit A2CBUILDING A Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	895	$1,450	$1.62	23d	1	1.30mi
1012 Adams Ave Unit C1BBUILDING C Odessa, TX	4.0	1.0	1066	$1,800	$1.69	45d	1	1.33mi
1012 Adams Ave Unit C2BBUILDING C Odessa, TX	4.0	1.0	1066	$1,750	$1.64	45d	1	1.33mi
3843 Penbrook St Odessa, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,584	$1.79	15d	24	1.35mi
3843 Penbrook St Odessa, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,584	$1.79	23d	17	1.35mi
2701 Pagewood Ave Odessa, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,615	$1.61	23d	1	1.35mi
4312 N Dixie Blvd Unit 72C Odessa, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,450	$1.48	45d	1	1.45mi
1813 Petroleum Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1299	$1,700	$1.31	23d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $220,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $220,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $220,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $220,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $220,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $220,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $220,000 Active 9 DOM
17. 2026-05-21
    listed $220,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $455 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,026 · $336/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,571/yr (+$298/mo · 784.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,455
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$455
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,636
• − Management: −$1,636
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$3,097
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$743
• After-tax cash flow: $1,503/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, TX
• County: Ector County · 131,169 people
• City population: 131,169
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,164
• Household income: $68,228
• Rent vs Own: 41.7% rent · 58.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1352.0

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% White 23% Two or more races 20% Black 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.66%
• Current HPI: 254.9159
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.66%
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property tax history

-18.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $455 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.