5214 Bald Eagle Ln SW · Tumwater, WA 98512

$199,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,563 sqft · Manufactured public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1996 1,983 sqft lot $128/sqft · 7% below area Est $215k · 7% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 3 bed, 2 bath home in Tumwater's desirable Eagles Landing 55+ community. * Carpet Credit with accepted offer * Located on a quiet corner lot just minutes from shopping, dining, and services. Open floor plan features vaulted ceilings, maple cabinetry, and an eat in kitchen with sunny breakfast nook. Enjoy a large dining area, living room, and versatile den. The primary suite includes a soaking tub, separate shower, and ample closet space. Relax in the low-maintenance backyard with mature trees and private patio. Two-car garage adds extra convenience - perfect for easy living and entertaining.

Key facts

• Soaking tub
• Private patio
• Separate shower

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• EAGLES LANDING COMMUNITY
• LOW MAINTENANCE BACKYARD
• PRIVATE PATIO
• SOAKING TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $688 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 2.7% in Tumwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#39 in WA, #700 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living D-.
• Tumwater School District (urban): math 57% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #37 of 291 in WA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Michael T Simmons Elementary (479 students, 40% FRL); Tumwater Middle School (616 students, 32% FRL); A G West Black Hills High School (833 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 236 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $124k; list at $200k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $193,515 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.78%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,000
• List price: $199,500
• Delta: -7.21%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5101 E Grey Sea Eagle Ln SW	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+0%)	1mo	$215,000	$137	95
5326 E Eagle Ln SW	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+4%)	6mo	$225,000	$139	85
5302 E Eagle Ln SW	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	3mo	$215,000	$149	82
930 Trosper Rd SW #130	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,544 (-1%)	2mo	$167,500	$108	79
5124 W Gray Sea Eagle SW	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,655 (+6%)	4mo	$197,000	$119	78
5301 E Eagle Ln SW	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-10%)	4mo	$225,000	$160	72
930 Trosper Rd SW #71	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,458 (-7%)	5mo	$230,000	$158	63
2286 W Eagle Ln SW	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,792 (+15%)	7mo	$205,000	$114	63
5354 Golden Eagle Ln SW	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	9mo	$220,000	$164	60
2247 43rd Ln SW	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,716 (+10%)	9mo	$340,000	$198	53
2263 43rd Ln SW	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,782 (+14%)	3mo	$320,000	$180	50
930 Trosper Rd SW #70	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,358 (-13%)	8mo	$109,900	$81	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $9,636
• Equity at exit: $29,746

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $57,298
• Equity at exit: $17,249

Cash invested: $55,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98512

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,477 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,046
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,671/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $688

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,606

Max offer price $199,500

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $801	-5% $745	+0% $688	+5% $632	+10% $575
Rent	-10% $492	-5% $590	+0% $688	+5% $786	+10% $884
Rate	-1.0pp $789	-0.5pp $739	base $688	+0.5pp $636	+1.0pp $584

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,875
• Closing costs: $5,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1978 Trosper Rd SW Tumwater, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1106	$2,574	$2.33	15d	4	0.23mi
1978 Trosper Rd SW Tumwater, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$2,735	$2.60	46d	3	0.23mi
1619 Trosper Rd SW Tumwater, WA	3.0	2.5	1295	$2,495	$1.93	23d	1	0.40mi
1306 Linwood Ave SW Tumwater, WA	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,700	$1.44	15d	1	0.59mi
1500 Lake Park Dr SW #29 Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.5	1428	$1,850	$1.30	23d	1	0.64mi
215 Pinehurst Dr SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0–2.5	759	$1,950	$2.57	15d	4	1.07mi
6705 Linderson Way SW Tumwater, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	900	$2,350	$2.61	15d	6	1.07mi
811 S 3rd Ave SW Unit B Tumwater, WA	3.0	2.0	1336	$2,300	$1.72	46d	1	1.13mi
1653 Starlight Ln SW Olympia, WA	3.0	2.5	1559	$2,800	$1.80	15d	2	1.14mi
1704 Barnes Blvd SW Tumwater, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	920	$2,500	$2.72	15d	35	1.16mi
407 N 5th Ave SW Tumwater, WA	3.0	1.5	1650	$2,250	$1.36	46d	1	1.45mi
407 N 5th Ave SW Unit A Tumwater, WA	3.0	1.5	1650	$2,250	$1.36	46d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $199,500 Pending 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $199,500 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,500 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,500 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,500 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $199,500 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-04-15
   listed $199,500 Active
8. 2018-09-28
   soldstatus $123,900 Sold
9. 2018-08-09
   status Pending Inspection
10. 2018-06-28
    listed $129,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,671 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,955 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: +$284/yr (+$24/mo · 17.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,722
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,175
• − Property taxes: −$1,671
• − Insurance: −$998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,378
• − Management: −$2,378
• − Depreciation: −$5,804
• Taxable income: $5,319
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,277
• After-tax cash flow: $6,981/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tumwater School District
• NCES district ID: 5309100
• Math proficiency: 57% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $64,209
• Composite: 56.38/100
• National rank: #2477
• State rank: #37 of 291 in WA

Livability — Tumwater

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #39
• US rank: #700

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tumwater, WA
• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 46,937
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 31,864
• Household income: $101,530
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 784.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -348.18%
• Current HPI: 347.121
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+53.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $199,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-28 Sold (MLS) $123,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-09 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-28 Listed $129,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,671 · +2444.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.