5377 Princeton Kenly Rd · Princeton, NC 27542

$279,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,418 sqft · Other · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 0.97 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

The Chastin Plan~ 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath, Double Garage, NEW Construction, PreSale

Key facts

• 0.97 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Concrete driveway/parking
• Utilities: Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story (entry level: 1); Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Slab foundation; Built as new construction
• Exterior features: Patio/porch details: see remarks; No fencing; Shingle roof; Has a view; New construction

Interior

• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Electric heating; Fireplace(s)
• Interior features: See remarks

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-256 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (24.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.3% in Princeton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#82 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Johnston County Public Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #105 of 178 in NC (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Micro Elementary (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #633 of 1,410 statewide, top 48%, 407 students, 75% FRL); North Johnston Middle (math 26% / reading 36%, grade F, #326 of 475 statewide, top 69%, 600 students, 72% FRL); North Johnston High (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #445 of 535 statewide, top 84%, 787 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 41% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,783 units permitted in Johnston County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Johnston County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 14 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $280k implies a 331% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,500 (24.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.91%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $136,195
• Equity at exit: $252,156

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.28×
• Total profit: $413,937
• Equity at exit: $543,784

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27542

• Home prices YoY: 16.6%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,125 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,198/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $-256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,449

Max offer price $242,918

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
224 Williamson Place Dr Princeton, NC	3.0	2.5	1573	$2,125	$1.35	2d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-18
   listed $279,900 Active
3. 2021-06-09
   soldstatus $65,000
4. 2019-11-26
   historical
5. 2019-11-08
   historical
6. 2019-09-18
   historical Contingent
7. 2019-07-10
   status Active
8. 2019-07-10
   listed $209,900
9. 2019-05-23
   listed $209,900
10. 2019-05-23
    historical
11. 2015-09-22
    historical
12. 2015-09-11
    listed $205,000 Active
13. 2014-06-27
    soldstatus $155,000 Closed
14. 2014-04-27
    historical Contingent
15. 2013-11-28
    price $159,900
16. 2013-10-09
    listed $164,900 Active
17. 2013-06-28
    soldstatus $12,000 Closed
18. 2013-06-28
    soldstatus $12,000
19. 2013-06-28
    soldstatus $60,000
20. 2013-05-17
    historical Contingent
21. 2013-04-02
    listed $19,900 Active
22. 2013-04-02
    listed $19,900
23. 2010-10-02
    historical
24. 2010-03-11
    listed $19,900
25. 2010-03-06
    historical
26. 2009-06-12
    historical
27. 2009-06-10
    listed $22,900
28. 2008-12-19
    listed $22,900
29. 2007-10-21
    historical
30. 2007-04-26
    listed $22,900
31. 2007-04-12
    historical
32. 2006-09-15
    historical
33. 2006-08-16
    listed $22,900
34. 2006-04-19
    listed $22,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$4,198
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,040
• − Management: −$2,040
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$7,999
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,920
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,147/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnston County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702370
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,912
• Composite: 34.99/100
• National rank: #5052
• State rank: #105 of 178 in NC

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #82
• US rank: #5811

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,441

Population outlook (Johnston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 222,440 people
• By 2030: 240,227 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 274,616 · +23.5%
• By 2050: 304,915 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 369,507 · +66.1%
• By 2100: 406,280 · +82.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Serbian 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.5) · D 38.7% · R 60.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.2pp toward D · 2008: -23.7pp · 2024: -21.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.5 2020: R+24.3 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+27.8 2008: R+23.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 40.03%
• Current HPI: 280.6408
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+1122.3% since first listed

34 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-05-18 Listed $279,900 Hive MLS
• 2021-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2019-11-26 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2019-11-08 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2019-09-18 Contingent — TMLS
• 2019-07-10 Relisted — TMLS
• 2019-07-10 Listed $209,900 Hive MLS
• 2019-05-23 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2019-05-23 Listed $209,900 TMLS
• 2015-09-22 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2015-09-11 Listed $205,000 TMLS
• 2014-06-27 Sold (MLS) $155,000 TMLS
• 2014-04-27 Contingent — TMLS
• 2013-11-28 Price Changed $159,900 TMLS
• 2013-10-09 Listed $164,900 TMLS
• 2013-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2013-06-28 Sold (MLS) $12,000 AMLSNC
• 2013-06-28 Sold (MLS) $12,000 TMLS
• 2013-05-17 Contingent — TMLS
• 2013-04-02 Listed $19,900 TMLS
• 2013-04-02 Listed $19,900 AMLSNC
• 2010-10-02 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2010-03-11 Listed $19,900 TMLS
• 2010-03-06 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2009-06-12 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2009-06-10 Listed $22,900 TMLS
• 2008-12-19 Listed $22,900 TMLS
• 2007-10-21 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2007-04-26 Listed $22,900 TMLS
• 2007-04-12 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2006-09-15 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2006-08-16 Listed $22,900 TMLS
• 2006-04-19 Listed $22,900 TMLS

Property tax history

-9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $356 · +46.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.