242 Trout Brook Ln · Aquebogue, NY 11901

$825,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,157 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1987 0.47 ac lot Est $858k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 242 Trout Brook Lane located on a desirable & serene cul-de-sac in the wonderful town of Aquebogue, gateway to wine country & The Hamptons! The first floor of this stunning 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath home offers a kitchen with light textured granite and maple cabinets, a dining room with an elegant fireplace, a living room, a den, and a laundry room with half bath. The second floor offers a primary bedroom ensuite with full bath, three additional bedrooms and a second full bath. The home also boasts central air conditioning, hard wood floors, a 2 car garage and a rear deck so you can view the half acre property with plenty of room for a pool or anything else you might want f

Key facts

• 0.47 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1987

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; On-street parking; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Water connected; Electricity connected; Trash collection (public); Cable available; Phone available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Full basement (unfinished); Pull-down attic stairs
• Exterior features: Wood siding; Back yard with wood fencing; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Stainless steel appliances; Granite countertops; Kitchen island; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two-level home (bedrooms on multiple levels possible)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Basement with unfinished area
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Central air conditioning; Fireplace (1)
• Interior features: First-floor full bath; Chandelier; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Formal dining room; Granite counters; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Pantry; Recessed lighting; Storage; Walk-through kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer hookup; In-hall laundry; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $825k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($113k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($19k rent vs $825k).
• Recommended offer: $813k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#887 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Aquebogue Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 474 students, 40% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 41% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Riverhead Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 192 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $231k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($813k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $525k; list at $825k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $812,625 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.76%
• DSCR: 3.17
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $858,486
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
117 Trout Brook Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,156 (-0%)	2mo	$757,350	$351	78
170 Grant Dr	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,129 (-1%)	18mo	$905,000	$425	77
133 Trout Brook Ln	0.24mi	4/2.0	2,301 (+7%)	2mo	$780,000	$339	74
97 Grant Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,900 (-12%)	9mo	$950,000	$500	62
34 Colonial Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,950 (-10%)	18mo	$867,000	$445	59
29 Linda Ave	0.33mi	4/3.0	1,900 (-12%)	5mo	$670,000	$353	58
195 Linda Ave	0.13mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,950 (-10%)	21mo	$725,000	$372	56
153 Fox Run Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (-12%)	17mo	$775,000	$408	44
9 Terry	0.54mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,000 (-7%)	14mo	$700,000	$350	42
74 Sunrise Ave	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,871 (-13%)	13mo	$745,000	$398	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $464,392
• Equity at exit: $123,010

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.09×
• Total profit: $1,175,160
• Equity at exit: $71,331

Cash invested: $231,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11901

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $18,996 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,326
• Tax from tax record: −$950 /mo · $11,396/yr
• Insurance: −$344
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,989
• Net cashflow: $9,387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,114

Max offer price $825,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9,854	-5% $9,620	+0% $9,387	+5% $9,153	+10% $8,920
Rent	-10% $7,886	-5% $8,636	+0% $9,387	+5% $10,137	+10% $10,887
Rate	-1.0pp $9,802	-0.5pp $9,596	base $9,387	+0.5pp $9,173	+1.0pp $8,955

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $206,250
• Closing costs: $24,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
123 Broad Ave Riverhead, NY	5.0	3.0	2367	$20,000	$8.45	20d	1	0.06mi
97 Grant DR Aquebogue, NY	3.0	2.5	1900	$20,000	$10.53	45d	1	0.12mi
807 Union Ave Riverhead, NY	4.0	2.5	2552	$9,000	$3.53	45d	1	0.52mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-29
   listed $825,000 Active
3. 2021-06-01
   soldstatus $525,000
4. 2003-08-20
   soldstatus $326,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $11,396 · $950/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,669 · $1,056/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,273/yr (+$106/mo · 11.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $227,946
• − Mortgage interest: −$46,213
• − Property taxes: −$11,396
• − Insurance: −$4,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$18,236
• − Management: −$18,236
• − Depreciation: −$24,000
• Taxable income: $105,741
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$25,378
• After-tax cash flow: $87,262/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Aquebogue

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #887
• US rank: #17213

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aquebogue, NY
• City population: 24
• Population (ZIP): 32,921

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.60%
• Current HPI: 436.7781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+153.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-29 Listed $825,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $525,000 Public Records
• 2003-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $326,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,396 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.