121 18th Ave SW · Watertown, SD 57201

$45,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily · 52 Days on market

Built 1983 $37/sqft · 32% below area Est $66k · 32% under $395/mo HOA · 30% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A wonderful opportunity to live in a highly desired area! This move-in-ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath home has been thoughtfully maintained and features recent updates to the water heater, central air, and furnace, offering comfort and peace of mind from day one. The property includes a 12×12 shed for extra storage and a spacious area ideal for adding a garage, giving you room to expand as you wish. Lot rent is $395/month, and purchase is subject to buyer approval by the mobile home park.

Key facts

• Built 1983
• Listed 52 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $45,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$65,817) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $320 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 2.3% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#11 in SD, #2,681 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Watertown School District 14-4 (town): math 45% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #28 of 59 in SD (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Watertown Middle School - 02 (math 42% / reading 63%, grade C+, #45 of 143 statewide, top 31%, 600 students, 26% FRL); Watertown High School - 01 (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C-, #53 of 151 statewide, top 41%, 1,220 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 24% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 228 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 160 units permitted in Codington County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Codington County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.

Recommended offer $43,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.48%
• DSCR: 2.36
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $65,817
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -31.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
121 18th Ave SW	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,216 (0%)	1mo	$40,000	$33	99
106 17th Ave SW	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	5mo	$38,000	$31	90
143 19th Ave SW	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+1%)	3mo	$61,500	$50	88
163 19th Ave SW	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+1%)	7mo	$95,000	$77	85
12 17th Ave SW	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-6%)	0mo	$100,000	$88	82
142 18th Ave SW	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+9%)	5mo	$135,000	$102	76
17 17th Ave SW	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,040 (-14%)	13mo	$92,000	$88	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $13,357
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.09×
• Total profit: $38,947
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Dakota: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; mostly landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 57201

• Active inventory: 228
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,299 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$395
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $320

Break-even live

Break-even rent $894

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $351	-5% $336	+0% $320	+5% $305	+10% $289
Rent	-10% $217	-5% $269	+0% $320	+5% $371	+10% $423
Rate	-1.0pp $343	-0.5pp $332	base $320	+0.5pp $308	+1.0pp $297

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2330 Challenger Way Watertown, SD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1143	$1,355	$1.19	46d	1	0.43mi
22 8th Ave SW Watertown, SD	2.0	1.0	830	$1,200	$1.45	46d	1	0.98mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $395 · $4,740/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 492-char remark

   Show marketing remark (492 chars)

   A wonderful opportunity to live in a highly desired area! This move-in-ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath home has been thoughtfully maintained and features recent updates to the water heater, central air, and furnace, offering comfort and peace of mind from day one. The property includes a 12×12 shed for extra storage and a spacious area ideal for adding a garage, giving you room to expand as you wish. Lot rent is $395/month, and purchase is subject to buyer approval by the mobile home park.

2. 2026-03-27
   listed $45,000 Active 492-char remark

   Show marketing remark (492 chars)

   A wonderful opportunity to live in a highly desired area! This move-in-ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath home has been thoughtfully maintained and features recent updates to the water heater, central air, and furnace, offering comfort and peace of mind from day one. The property includes a 12×12 shed for extra storage and a spacious area ideal for adding a garage, giving you room to expand as you wish. Lot rent is $395/month, and purchase is subject to buyer approval by the mobile home park.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,586
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,247
• − Management: −$1,247
• − HOA: −$4,740
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $3,622
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$869
• After-tax cash flow: $2,972/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watertown School District 14-4
• NCES district ID: 4676620
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $46,575
• Composite: 43.24/100
• National rank: #3057
• State rank: #28 of 59 in SD

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #2681

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, SD
• County: Codington County · 26,781 people
• City population: 26,781
• Metro: Watertown, SD
• Population (ZIP): 26,781
• Household income: $72,878
• Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 613.0

Population outlook (Codington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,752 people
• By 2030: 30,627 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 32,285 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 33,812 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 39,184 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 46,673 · +56.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 15% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Codington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.8) · D 28.4% · R 69.2% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.4pp · 2024: -40.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.8 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+39.3 2012: R+18.3 2008: R+6.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.04%
• Current HPI: 165.8449
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Watertown, SD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.70%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities	1	$1B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — NESD
• 2026-03-27 Listed $45,000 NESD

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $86 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.