129 Spring Vly · St. Hedwig, TX 78101

$218,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 54 Days on market

Built 2005 1.23 ac lot $139/sqft · at area comps Est $218k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Completely updated and beautiful on 1.24 acres with mature trees. Kitchen features new stainless appliances and a breakfast bar. New light fixtures. New faux wood flooring in the living area, dining, and kitchen. New carpet in the bedrooms. Fresh paint inside and out. Primary bath offers a soaking tub, separate shower, and double vanity. New 2 inch blinds and window treatments are included. Ranch fencing with a gated entry. New AC and heat system 2026. New roof 2026.

Key facts

• Double vanity
• Soaking tub
• Stainless appliances

Tags

• MATURE TREES
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• BREAKFAST BAR
• SOAKING TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER
• DOUBLE VANITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $218k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $204 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (3.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (3.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.1% in St. Hedwig — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• La Vernia ISD (rural): math 61% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #62 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: La Vernia Pri (881 students, 31% FRL); La Vernia J H (math 61% / reading 50%, grade B-, #240 of 1,662 statewide, top 15%, 816 students, 30% FRL); La Vernia H S (math 57% / reading 71%, grade B-, #224 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 981 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 135 units permitted in Wilson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wilson County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $218k implies a 148% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,000 (3.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.00%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $218,500
• List price: $218,500
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
129 Spring Vly	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	0mo	$218,500	$139	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-22,407
• Equity at exit: $32,579

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,779
• Equity at exit: $18,892

Cash invested: $61,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78101

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,100 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,146
• Tax from tax record: −$218 /mo · $2,616/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,842

Max offer price $218,500

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $328	-5% $266	+0% $204	+5% $142	+10% $80
Rent	-10% $38	-5% $121	+0% $204	+5% $287	+10% $370
Rate	-1.0pp $314	-0.5pp $260	base $204	+0.5pp $148	+1.0pp $90

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,625
• Closing costs: $6,555
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
166 County Road 324 Adkins, TX	4.0	2.0	1742	$2,100	$1.21	0d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-18
   historical Active Option 472-char remark

   Show marketing remark (472 chars)

   Completely updated and beautiful on 1.24 acres with mature trees. Kitchen features new stainless appliances and a breakfast bar. New light fixtures. New faux wood flooring in the living area, dining, and kitchen. New carpet in the bedrooms. Fresh paint inside and out. Primary bath offers a soaking tub, separate shower, and double vanity. New 2 inch blinds and window treatments are included. Ranch fencing with a gated entry. New AC and heat system 2026. New roof 2026.

2. 2026-03-28
   listed $218,500 New 472-char remark

   Show marketing remark (472 chars)

   Completely updated and beautiful on 1.24 acres with mature trees. Kitchen features new stainless appliances and a breakfast bar. New light fixtures. New faux wood flooring in the living area, dining, and kitchen. New carpet in the bedrooms. Fresh paint inside and out. Primary bath offers a soaking tub, separate shower, and double vanity. New 2 inch blinds and window treatments are included. Ranch fencing with a gated entry. New AC and heat system 2026. New roof 2026.

3. 2025-12-29
   soldstatus $88,000
4. 2007-06-06
   soldstatus
5. 2007-06-06
   soldstatus
6. 2001-02-15
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,616 · $218/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,999 · $333/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,383/yr (+$115/mo · 52.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,239
• − Property taxes: −$2,616
• − Insurance: −$1,092
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,016
• − Management: −$2,016
• − Depreciation: −$6,356
• Taxable loss: −$1,136
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$273
• After-tax cash flow: $2,722/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Vernia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826310
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $81,317
• Composite: 51.63/100
• National rank: #1704
• State rank: #62 of 826 in TX

Livability — St. Hedwig

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,958
• Population (ZIP): 8,272

Population outlook (Wilson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,434 people
• By 2030: 63,912 · +9.4%
• By 2040: 74,704 · +27.8%
• By 2050: 85,024 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 111,025 · +90.0%
• By 2100: 126,692 · +116.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 26%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wilson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.7) · D 22.9% · R 76.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -53.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.7 2020: R+48.4 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+43.0 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.51%
• Current HPI: 290.302
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+148.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-03-28 Listed $218,500 LERA
• 2025-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records
• 2007-06-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-06-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-02-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,616 · -5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.