385 Cape Horn Rd · Stamford, NY 12167

$269,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,138 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1968 2.73 ac lot $236/sqft · 7% below area Est $377k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in the scenic beauty of Gilboa, NY, this inviting 2-bedroom home offers flexibility, comfort, and charm. An additional room provides the perfect opportunity for a third bedroom, home office, or creative space to suit your needs. Step inside to a stunning, large open living room filled with natural light, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere ideal for both relaxing and entertaining. A separate dining room adds a touch of traditional charm, perfect for gatherings and everyday meals. The home features 1.5 bathrooms and is equipped with primarily hot water baseboard heat, complemented by a mini-split system for added efficiency and comfort year-round. Outside, you’ll find a de

Key facts

• Peaceful location
• Separate dining room
• Additional room

Tags

• ADDITIONAL ROOM
• LARGE OPEN LIVING ROOM
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• DETACHED TWO-CAR GARAGE
• BACKUP PROPANE GENERATOR
• PEACEFUL LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing construction
• Construction: Cedar and frame construction; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Has full basement
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Owned propane tank; Rectangular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 2 main-level bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Ductless cooling; Ductless heating; Propane heating available; Oil heating available; Baseboard heating; Hot water heating; Electric water heater
• Interior features: Separate/formal living room; Great room; Living/dining room; Solid surface counters; Bedroom on main level; See remarks / other
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $269k).
• Recommended offer: $261k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 5.3% in Stamford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#574 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Stamford Central School District (rural): math 40% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #675 of 755 in NY (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 35 units permitted in Schoharie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Schoharie County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $75k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $260,930 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.83%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $377,117
• List price: $269,000
• Delta: -28.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.21% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $132,442
• Equity at exit: $155,833

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.52×
• Total profit: $340,734
• Equity at exit: $271,796

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12167

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,514 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,362/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$738
• Net cashflow: $1,056

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,177

Max offer price $269,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,209	-5% $1,133	+0% $1,056	+5% $980	+10% $904
Rent	-10% $779	-5% $918	+0% $1,056	+5% $1,195	+10% $1,334
Rate	-1.0pp $1,192	-0.5pp $1,125	base $1,056	+0.5pp $987	+1.0pp $916

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $269,000 Pending 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $269,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $269,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $269,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $269,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $269,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $269,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-05-05
    listed $269,000 Active 1033-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,362 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,454 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,092/yr (+$91/mo · 46.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥89°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,167
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$2,362
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,373
• − Management: −$3,373
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable income: $8,820
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,117
• After-tax cash flow: $10,560/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stamford Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628020
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $42,968
• Composite: 34.29/100
• National rank: #10231
• State rank: #675 of 755 in NY

Livability — Stamford

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #574
• US rank: #10332

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,257

Population outlook (Schoharie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,080 people
• By 2030: 27,417 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 23,835 · -18.0%
• By 2050: 20,482 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 14,323 · -50.7%
• By 2100: 9,636 · -66.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Schoharie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.5) · D 34.7% · R 65.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.2pp toward R · 2008: -14.3pp · 2024: -30.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.5 2020: R+29.0 2016: R+34.7 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+14.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.21%
• Current HPI: 368.4492
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $269,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,362 · -2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.