4320 Grant St · Pace, FL 32571

$279,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1978 0.38 ac lot Est $256k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• ARV discount +3.2/15.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This one owner home is centrally located in the heart of Pace and has been well maintained over the years. There is an updated roof, windows, water heater, custom hurricane shutters and many other upgrades. Take comfort in knowing you won't be in the dark with a whole house generator. The backyard is privacy fenced and has a enclosed porch, a shed, and a gazebo. The property is tastefully landscaped with numerous flowering plants and trees and sits at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac.

Key facts

• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Updated roof
• Enclosed porch

Tags

• UPDATED ROOF
• CUSTOM HURRICANE SHUTTERS
• WHOLE HOUSE GENERATOR
• PRIVACY FENCED BACKYARD
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($89/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (24.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.4% in Pace — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#475 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: S. S. Dixon Intermediate School (math 73% / reading 67%, grade A-, #345 of 2,144 statewide, top 17%, 920 students, 40% FRL); Pace High School (math 63% / reading 62%, grade B-, #93 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,240 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 674 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $280k implies a 600% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,209 (24.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.11%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $255,528
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4320 Grant St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,459 (+4%)	1mo	$265,000	$182	93
4277 Dana St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,378 (-2%)	9mo	$250,500	$182	82
4344 Forte St	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,566 (+12%)	2mo	$195,000	$125	76
4401 Pine Villa Cir	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,367 (-3%)	9mo	$196,000	$143	74
4538 Alba St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,362 (-3%)	8mo	$252,000	$185	74
4276 Wellington Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+7%)	9mo	$238,000	$158	73
4408 Bellwood Cir	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,613 (+15%)	3mo	$295,000	$183	58
4724 W Spencer Field Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,477 (+5%)	8mo	$263,000	$178	58
4741 Sago Palm Cir	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,569 (+12%)	3mo	$320,000	$204	51
4246 Southern Palm Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,517 (+8%)	7mo	$309,000	$204	50
4703 Santa Rosa Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,583 (+13%)	2mo	$285,000	$180	48
4234 Southern Palm Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,573 (+12%)	4mo	$316,000	$201	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-45,615
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-42,090
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32571

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,112 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $921/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,103

Max offer price $279,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $166	-5% $87	+0% $7	+5% $-72	+10% $-151
Rent	-10% $-159	-5% $-76	+0% $7	+5% $91	+10% $174
Rate	-1.0pp $148	-0.5pp $79	base $7	+0.5pp $-65	+1.0pp $-139

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4742 Spencer Oaks Blvd Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1783	$1,925	$1.08	25d	1	0.74mi
4203 Frasier Ln Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1755	$2,195	$1.25	25d	1	0.89mi
4496 Fiske St Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,850	$1.30	15d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-18
   price $279,900
3. 2026-04-03
   listed $299,000 Active
4. 1979-02-01
   soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $921 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,323 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,403/yr (+$117/mo · 152.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,345
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$921
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,028
• − Management: −$2,028
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$4,852
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,164
• After-tax cash flow: $1,253/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pace

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #475
• US rank: #8593

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pace, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• City population: 42,171
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,171
• Household income: $87,617
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.39%
• Current HPI: 290.2953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.72%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+599.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — PARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $279,900 PARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $299,000 PARMLS
• 1979-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $921 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.