22914 Primrose Wind Ln · Houston, TX 77447

$254,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,434 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $255k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

You have arrived at the Caprock Plan, located in Sunset Valley. Featuring 2 classic front exteriors, this 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home also offers 1,435 square feet of living space and a 2-car garage. A front porch (per plan) welcomes you into the home and opens to the gourmet kitchen which includes quartz counter tops, quality cabinets, stainless steel appliances and an open concept floorplan with the kitchen flowing seamlessly into the dining room and living room. The main bedroom has an attractive ensuite bathroom that features a quartz vanity countertop and quality cabinetry. Enjoy additional storage with a spacious walk-in closet located off of the primary bathroom. Your secondary bedroo

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Quality cabinets
• Quartz counter tops

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTER TOPS
• QUALITY CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• ENSUITE BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 22914 Primrose Wind Ln, Hockley TX 77447; Inventory type: Spec; Plan name: Caprock; Listing status: Active; Information provided by Zillow; buyer to verify
• Financial info: List price $254,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family property; Active listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,434

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (Caprock plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-59 ($-714/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1790 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,533 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.00%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $255,252
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18718 Sunset Horizon Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,434 (0%)	2mo	$254,990	$178	85
22719 Primrose Wind Ln	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+2%)	1mo	$257,990	$176	84
18611 Hawthorn Stem Dr	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+2%)	3mo	$256,990	$175	78
18602 Sunset Horizon Dr	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+2%)	4mo	$255,990	$174	75
18635 Hawthorn Stem Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-11%)	1mo	$246,990	$193	70
22710 Ravine Edge Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-11%)	3mo	$239,990	$187	69
18923 Sunset Horizon Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,573 (+10%)	4mo	$262,990	$167	68
18903 Sunset Horizon Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,573 (+10%)	3mo	$259,990	$165	67
18723 Sunset Horizon Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-11%)	3mo	$236,990	$185	67
18615 Hawthorn Stem Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,573 (+10%)	2mo	$263,990	$168	64
22855 Magnolia Haven Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,377 (-4%)	4mo	$244,995	$178	57
22862 Magnolia Haven Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,242 (-13%)	4mo	$234,995	$189	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-51,391
• Equity at exit: $38,020

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-73,906
• Equity at exit: $22,047

Cash invested: $71,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1790
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,155 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$319 /mo · $3,825/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $-59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,231

Max offer price $246,385

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $117	-5% $29	+0% $-59	+5% $-148	+10% $-236
Rent	-10% $-230	-5% $-145	+0% $-59	+5% $26	+10% $111
Rate	-1.0pp $69	-0.5pp $5	base $-59	+0.5pp $-126	+1.0pp $-193

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,748
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18435 Summit Ranch Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,796	$1.46	23d	1	1.16mi
20313 Evergreen Cypress Dr Hockley, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2051	$2,353	$1.15	0d	1	1.25mi
18927 Jasper Ridge Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	1851	$1,895	$1.02	23d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $254,990 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $254,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,864
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,283
• − Property taxes: −$3,825
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,069
• − Management: −$2,069
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$5,075
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,218
• After-tax cash flow: $504/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and maintain its rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps home in good condition

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps home in good condition ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B