11169 NE 39th Dr · Jasper, FL 32052

$79,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,112 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1967 0.35 ac lot Est $60k · 33% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

INVESTORS & REHAB Specialists - Property is being sold AS-IS. Property requires substantial renovation and is priced accordingly. Excellent potential for redevelopment or full restoration.

Key facts

• 0.35 acre lot
• Built 1967
• Listed 30 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.35 acres

Exterior

• Home design: Detached single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Aluminum and vinyl siding; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Metal roof

Interior

• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Tile and vinyl flooring; Total of 5 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $359 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 3.4% in Jasper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#731 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Hamilton (rural): math 34% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #68 of 73 in FL (top 93%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 26 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Hamilton County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $80k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,599 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.24%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $60,048
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
406 5th Street St NW	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,118 (+0%)	9mo	$188,000	$168	58
3753 NW 108th Ln	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,056 (-5%)	11mo	$32,000	$30	50
3752 NW 108th Ln	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,025 (-8%)	14mo	$55,000	$54	43
3740 NW 108th Ln	0.71mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,201 (+8%)	11mo	$25,000	$21	39
412 NW 4th Ave	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	952 (-14%)	2mo	$68,000	$71	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.69% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.20×
• Total profit: $49,248
• Equity at exit: $53,808

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.63×
• Total profit: $126,175
• Equity at exit: $100,768

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32052

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,073 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $426/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $359

Break-even live

Break-even rent $618

Max offer price $79,999

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $404	-5% $382	+0% $359	+5% $336	+10% $314
Rent	-10% $274	-5% $317	+0% $359	+5% $401	+10% $444
Rate	-1.0pp $399	-0.5pp $379	base $359	+0.5pp $338	+1.0pp $317

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $79,999 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,999 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,999 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,999 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,999 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,999 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,999 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,999 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,999 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,999 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,999 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,999 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,999 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,999 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,999 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    pricedays on market $79,999 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    status Pending
18. 2026-05-08
    listed $99,999 Active
19. 2011-07-22
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $426 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $664 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$238/yr (+$20/mo · 55.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,872
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$426
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,030
• − Management: −$1,030
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $3,178
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$763
• After-tax cash flow: $3,546/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamilton
• NCES district ID: 1200720
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $36,461
• Composite: 26.18/100
• National rank: #7267
• State rank: #68 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jasper

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #731
• US rank: #15678

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,073

Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,405 people
• By 2030: 13,031 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 12,385 · -7.6%
• By 2050: 11,740 · -12.4%
• By 2075: 9,347 · -30.3%
• By 2100: 6,344 · -52.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.0) · D 30.1% · R 69.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.4pp toward R · 2008: -14.6pp · 2024: -39.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.0 2020: R+31.8 2016: R+28.2 2012: R+16.9 2008: R+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.69%
• Current HPI: 316.4797
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+122.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — DGLMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $99,999 DGLMLS
• 2011-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $426 · -54.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.