45 Hill Park Ave · Great Neck Plaza, NY 11021

$248,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 70,021 sqft · Condo public records · 196 Days on market

Built 1962 $4/sqft · 99% below area Est $320k · 22% under ↓ 50% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Schools +7.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A Real Gem! Large, L-Shaped Studio Converted To Jr1. Offers New White Washed Hardwood Floors, Custom Lutron Automation System For Lighting, Window Shades & Ceiling Fan. Renovated Kitchen & Bath, many new appliances. New Laundry Room. Installation of washer and dryer in apartment is allowed. Bonus: New Laundry Room and Storage Room. Indoor Parking Fee Is $75.00 & outdoor Parking Fee Is $ 54.00. HOA is $704.5/ month, which includes most utilities (gas, heat, and water). 2 Blocks To The Train Station & Bus Station. Walk To The Town, Shopping, Park System With The Marina, Tennis Courts, etc. Zoned for Great Neck South School. Buyers agents are welcome with 2.5%buyers agency fee.

Key facts

• Storage room
• New laundry room
• Walk to the town

Tags

• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• RENOVATED BATH
• NEW LAUNDRY ROOM
• STORAGE ROOM
• 2 BLOCKS TO THE TRAIN STATION
• WALK TO THE TOWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $248k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $868 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $248k).
• Recommended offer: $218k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 4.4% in Great Neck Plaza — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#35 in NY, #551 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Great Neck Union Free School District (suburban): math 86% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #30 of 590 in NY (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Saddle Rock School (math 87% / reading 82%, grade A+, #93 of 2,108 statewide, top 6%, 542 students, 16% FRL); Great Neck South Middle School (math 79% / reading 81%, grade A+, #28 of 729 statewide, top 4%, 861 students, 23% FRL); Great Neck South High School (math 100% / reading 92%, grade A+, #71 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 1,262 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 13% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 201 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.00%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,857
• List price: $248,000
• Delta: -22.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $15,158
• Equity at exit: $36,978

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $84,602
• Equity at exit: $21,443

Cash invested: $69,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11021

• Active inventory: 201
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,268 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,301
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$310 /mo · $3,720/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$686
• Net cashflow: $868

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,169

Max offer price $248,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,040	-5% $954	+0% $868	+5% $783	+10% $697
Rent	-10% $610	-5% $739	+0% $868	+5% $997	+10% $1,126
Rate	-1.0pp $993	-0.5pp $931	base $868	+0.5pp $804	+1.0pp $739

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,000
• Closing costs: $7,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: watergas
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $248,000 Active 196 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $248,000 Active 193 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $248,000 Active 192 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $248,000 Active 191 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $248,000 Active 190 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $248,000 Active 188 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $248,000 Active 184 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $248,000 Active 183 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $248,000 Active 182 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $248,000 Active 179 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $248,000 Active 178 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $248,000 Active 177 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $248,000 Active 176 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $248,000 Active 175 DOM
15. 2025-12-07
    listed $248,000 Active 709-char remark

    Show marketing remark (709 chars)

    A Real Gem! Large, L-Shaped Studio Converted To Jr1. Offers New White Washed Hardwood Floors, Custom Lutron Automation System For Lighting, Window Shades & Ceiling Fan. Renovated Kitchen & Bath, many new appliances. New Laundry Room. Installation of washer and dryer in apartment is allowed. Bonus: New Laundry Room and Storage Room. Indoor Parking Fee Is $75.00 & outdoor Parking Fee Is $ 54.00. HOA is $704.5/ month, which includes most utilities (gas, heat, and water). 2 Blocks To The Train Station & Bus Station. Walk To The Town, Shopping, Park System With The Marina, Tennis Courts, etc. Zoned for Great Neck South School. Buyers agents are welcome with 2.5%buyers agency fee.

16. 2020-01-27
    historical
17. 2020-01-27
    historical
18. 2020-01-27
    historical
19. 2020-01-27
    listed $495,000 New
20. 2020-01-27
    listed $495,000 New
21. 2020-01-27
    listed $495,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,221
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,892
• − Property taxes: −$3,720
• − Insurance: −$1,240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,138
• − Management: −$3,138
• − Depreciation: −$7,215
• Taxable income: $6,879
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,651
• After-tax cash flow: $8,767/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Great Neck Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3612510
• Math proficiency: 86% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 83% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $99,939
• Composite: 76.19/100
• National rank: #111
• State rank: #30 of 590 in NY

Livability — Great Neck Plaza

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #35
• US rank: #551

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Great Neck Plaza, NY
• County: Nassau County · 653,051 people
• City population: 19,474
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 19,783
• Household income: $120,230
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 601.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Asian 31% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 5% Romanian 4% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 36% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Chinese 16% Other Indo-European 10% Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -736.84%
• Current HPI: 254.751
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-49.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-07 Listed $248,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2020-01-27 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-27 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-27 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-27 Listed $495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-27 Listed $495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-27 Listed $495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $297,868 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.