3907 Garden St · Mercedes, TX 78570

$55,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,110 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1997 6,834 sqft lot ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

2/2 Mobile home in the Mercedes Garden Subdivision. Wood privacy fence and new 20x14 shed.

Key facts

• 6,834 sq ft lot
• Built 1997
• Listed 56 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $403 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 3.3% in Mercedes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#547 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mercedes ISD (suburban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #811 of 826 in TX (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: John F Kennedy El (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 462 students, 96% FRL); Sgt William G Harrell Middle (math 6% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,623 of 1,662 statewide, top 98%, 451 students, 95% FRL); Mercedes H S (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,591 of 1,632 statewide, top 98%, 974 students, 91% FRL).
• Market conditions: 390 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.5% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $53,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.40%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $194,250
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1506 Unity Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,125 (+1%)	18mo	$199,000	$177	71
1805 Hope Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,142 (+3%)	16mo	$199,900	$175	70
4481 Pedro Martinez	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,163 (+5%)	9mo	$155,000	$133	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.53% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.40×
• Total profit: $36,961
• Equity at exit: $29,595

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.87×
• Total profit: $90,470
• Equity at exit: $49,822

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78570

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 390
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,149 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,322/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $403

Break-even live

Break-even rent $639

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
203 E Royal Palm Dr Unit A Mercedes, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	43d	1	0.78mi
203 E Royal Palm Dr Unit D Mercedes, TX	3.0	2.0	1022	$1,325	$1.30	43d	1	0.78mi
203 E Royal Palm Dr Unit C Mercedes, TX	3.0	2.0	1022	$1,275	$1.25	43d	1	0.78mi
1204 N Mile 1 E Mercedes, TX	2.0	2.0	864	$885	$1.02	43d	1	0.94mi
1809 Unity Dr Unity DR Mercedes, TX	3.0	2.0	1142	$1,650	$1.44	43d	1	0.98mi
1205 N Mile 1 E Mercedes, TX	2.0	2.0	864	$885	$1.02	43d	1	1.03mi
1202 North St Mercedes, TX	2.0	2.0	864	$885	$1.02	43d	1	1.08mi
1202 N Mile 1 E Unit 203 Mercedes, TX	2.0	2.0	864	$885	$1.02	43d	1	1.14mi
907 E Starr Rd Unit D Mercedes, TX	3.0	2.0	1078	$1,050	$0.97	43d	1	1.25mi
1003 E Starr Rd Unit C Mercedes, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$995	$1.05	43d	1	1.27mi
1011 E Starr Rd Unit D Mercedes, TX	3.0	2.0	1078	$1,095	$1.02	43d	1	1.28mi
906 E Starr Rd Unit B Mercedes, TX	3.0	2.0	1078	$1,100	$1.02	43d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2021-11-18
   status Pending
2. 2021-11-11
   price $55,000
3. 2021-09-23
   listed $75,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,322 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,322 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,791
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$2,322
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,103
• − Management: −$1,103
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $4,306
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,033
• After-tax cash flow: $3,803/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mercedes ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830250
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $27,606
• Composite: 12.84/100
• National rank: #9596
• State rank: #811 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mercedes

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #547
• US rank: #10619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mercedes, TX
• City population: 33,596
• Population (ZIP): 33,596

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 96% Two or more races 44% White 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Current HPI: 238.8386
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-26.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2021-11-18 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2021-11-11 Price Changed $55,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2021-09-23 Listed $75,000 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,322 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.