Sanpiper Plan · Fulshear, TX 77441

$326,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,107 sqft · SingleFamily · 396 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Sanpiper offers the perfect blend of open-concept living and private retreat spaces across 2 thoughtfully designed floors. With 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and over 2,100 square feet, this home is built for both everyday living and memorable gatherings.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 395 days

🏗️ New construction. The $326,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $465,093.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $327k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-990 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $322k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $281k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Huggins El (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 893 students, 23% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lamar CISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1928 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 39d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 396 days — a 12% lower offer ($288k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,499 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 396 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.13%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $465,093
• List price: $326,990
• Delta: -29.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32111 Morning Luster Ct	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,146 (+2%)	5mo	$354,990	$165	82
32523 Midsummer Dr	0.30mi	4/2.5	2,139 (+2%)	3mo	$317,990	$149	81
32515 Midsummer Dr	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,139 (+2%)	4mo	$325,990	$152	80
5822 Sunkissed Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,990 (-6%)	3mo	$334,990	$168	79
32119 Morning Luster Ct	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,246 (+7%)	4mo	$364,990	$163	76
5815 Blazing Light Ln	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,246 (+7%)	4mo	$364,990	$163	69
5807 Blazing Light Ln	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,392 (+14%)	0mo	$344,990	$144	68
5427 Tourmaline Way	0.34mi	4/3.0	2,364 (+12%)	4mo	$324,900	$137	58
32539 Summer Vista Ln	0.39mi	4/3.0	2,386 (+13%)	1mo	$317,990	$133	57
30914 Waterfowl Ct	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,370 (+12%)	1mo	$385,990	$163	54
32331 Melbrooke	0.43mi	4/3.0	2,394 (+14%)	2mo	$335,000	$140	53
5423 Rosser Ruby Way	0.44mi	4/2.5	1,797 (-15%)	5mo	$265,000	$147	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-146,646
• Equity at exit: $69,347

10-year hold

• IRR: -71.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.85×
• Total profit: $-240,622
• Equity at exit: $40,213

Cash invested: $130,226 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 96 active · 39 under contract
• Months of supply: 18.6 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $358,990 ($176/sqft)
• Median days on market: 199 d
• This list price: 27% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +25.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77441

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1928
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,815 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,439
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$581 /mo · $6,976/yr
• Insurance: −$194
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$591
• Net cashflow: $-990

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,069

Max offer price $321,793

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-669	-5% $-830	+0% $-990	+5% $-1,151	+10% $-1,312
Rent	-10% $-1,213	-5% $-1,102	+0% $-990	+5% $-879	+10% $-768
Rate	-1.0pp $-756	-0.5pp $-872	base $-990	+0.5pp $-1,111	+1.0pp $-1,233

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $116,273
• Closing costs: $13,953
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32503 Midsummer Dr Fulshear, TX	4.0	2.5	2342	$2,500	$1.07	119d	1	0.28mi
32511 Midsummer Dr Fulshear, TX	4.0	2.5	2342	$2,500	$1.07	104d	1	0.28mi
5462 Grand View Dr Unit 1568482P Pattison, TX	5.0	3.0	2992	$7,793	$2.60	0d	1	0.40mi
32311 Melbrooke Dr Brookshire, TX	3.0	2.5	2434	$2,295	$0.94	100d	1	0.42mi
31430 Warm Kindling Way Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.0	2640	$3,400	$1.29	29d	1	0.70mi
5222 Wyatt James Ln Brookshire, TX	4.0	2.5	2487	$3,250	$1.31	153d	1	0.84mi
7302 New Pecan Dr Fulshear, TX	4.0	4.0	2844	$3,299	$1.16	10d	1	0.94mi
31043 Vintage Creek Ln Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.5	2800	$3,300	$1.18	1d	1	1.09mi
31043 Vintage Creek Ln Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.5	2800	$3,300	$1.18	75d	1	1.09mi
31123 Brightwell Bnd Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,400	$1.00	153d	1	1.24mi
3702 Birtley Bend Way Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.0	2688	$3,499	$1.30	0d	1	1.25mi
31707 Melkridge Rd Fulshear, TX	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,300	$1.10	38d	1	1.42mi
31419 Horseshoe Meadow Bend Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0	2.0	1588	$2,100	$1.32	10d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $326,990 Active 396 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $326,990 Active 395 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $326,990 Active 394 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $326,990 Active 393 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $326,990 Active 392 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $326,990 Active 390 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $326,990 Active 389 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $326,990 Active 388 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $326,990 Active 387 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $326,990 Active 386 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $326,990 Active 385 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $326,990 Active 384 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $326,990 Active 383 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $326,990 Active 382 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $326,990 Active 381 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $326,990 Active 380 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $326,990 Active 379 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $326,990 Active 378 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $326,990 Active 377 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $326,990 Active 376 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $326,990 Active 375 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $326,990 Active 374 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $326,990 Active 373 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $326,990 Active 372 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $326,990 Active 371 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $326,990 Active 370 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $326,990 Active 369 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $326,990 Active 368 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $326,990 Active 367 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $326,990 Active 366 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $326,990 Active 365 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $326,990 Active 364 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $326,990 Active 363 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $326,990 Active 362 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $326,990 Active 361 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $326,990 Active 360 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $326,990 Active 359 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $326,990 Active 358 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $326,990 Active 357 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $326,990 Active 356 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $326,990 Active 355 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $326,990 Active 354 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $326,990 Active 353 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $326,990 Active 352 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $326,990 Active 351 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $326,990 Active 350 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $326,990 Active 349 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $326,990 Active 348 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $326,990 Active 347 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $326,990 Active 345 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,780
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,052
• − Property taxes: −$6,976
• − Insurance: −$2,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,702
• − Management: −$2,702
• − Depreciation: −$13,530
• Taxable loss: −$20,509
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,922
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,962/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,535–$31,605 screening

This single-family home in Fulshear, TX, is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a blend of open-concept living and private retreat spaces, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Modern flooring improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both New window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 63/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Huggins El B TX #321/4,322 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle Dean Leaman J H School B TX #206/1,662 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Foster H S B TX #141/1,632 Nat'l #2,354/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Fulshear

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 41,324
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,324
• Household income: $184,390
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
• Current HPI: 275.8798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-10-08 Listed $326,990 Zillow