171 Bayside Dr · Palm Coast, FL 32137

$224,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,497 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1992 0.41 ac lot Est $299k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Investor Jackpot! Cash buyers only. Unbelievably priced home in desirable neighborhood. Opportunity knocks with this 1497 htd. sq. ft. single family home in desirable Indian Trails subdivision. This home is a fixer upper and is sold AS-IS. It is a probate listing and recently got approval from the attorney to be able to sell. Extra large lot at 0.407 acres gives you some extra privacy.

Key facts

• 0.41 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1992

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-397/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.8% in Palm Coast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Flagler (rural): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #20 of 73 in FL (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1600 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,588 units permitted in Flagler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Flagler County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $225k implies a 354% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,389 (10.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.63%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $299,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
171 Bayside Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,497 (0%)	0mo	$180,000	$120	100
19 Barrington Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,379 (-8%)	0mo	$245,000	$178	80
32 Barkley Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,471 (-2%)	2mo	$338,000	$230	79
9 Burning Bush Pl	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,484 (-1%)	3mo	$290,000	$195	75
21 Burning Tree Pl	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,428 (-5%)	1mo	$290,494	$203	69
1 Burning Sands Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,484 (-1%)	5mo	$279,994	$189	66
33 Bannerwood Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,336 (-11%)	3mo	$279,900	$210	64
10 Barring	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,663 (+11%)	3mo	$305,000	$183	60
37 Barkley Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,641 (+10%)	7mo	$380,000	$232	59
86 Bayside Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,657 (+11%)	5mo	$360,000	$217	52
48 Ballard Ln	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,654 (+10%)	3mo	$325,000	$196	50
154 Bren Mar Ln	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,654 (+10%)	6mo	$329,990	$200	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-42,728
• Equity at exit: $33,533

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-56,324
• Equity at exit: $19,445

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32137

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 1600
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,004 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$343 /mo · $4,117/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $-33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,046

Max offer price $219,052

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $94	-5% $31	+0% $-33	+5% $-97	+10% $-160
Rent	-10% $-191	-5% $-112	+0% $-33	+5% $46	+10% $125
Rate	-1.0pp $80	-0.5pp $24	base $-33	+0.5pp $-91	+1.0pp $-151

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
44 Barrington Dr Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1862	$2,250	$1.21	14d	1	0.30mi
121 Pine Lakes Pkwy N Palm Coast, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1090	$1,966	$1.80	3d	10	0.30mi
53 Brownstone Ln Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1582	$1,950	$1.23	3d	1	0.31mi
26 Brooklyn Ln Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1862	$2,250	$1.21	19d	1	0.48mi
24 Barring Pl Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1668	$1,875	$1.12	24d	1	0.50mi
101 Athens Ct Palm Coast, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,516	$1.30	3d	15	0.58mi
273 Beachway Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1784	$2,450	$1.37	24d	1	0.66mi
119 Brunswick Ln Palm Coast, FL	2.0	2.0	977	$1,499	$1.53	3d	1	0.78mi
12 Bunker View Pl Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,725	$1.08	3d	1	0.81mi
113 Brunswick Ln Unit A Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1198	$1,550	$1.29	3d	1	0.81mi
32 Bunker View Dr Unit A Palm Coast, FL	2.0	2.0	1434	$1,500	$1.05	3d	1	0.87mi
14 Bunker View Dr Unit 2 Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,645	$1.38	3d	1	0.99mi
55 Brittany Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,850	$1.44	19d	1	1.01mi
8 Bren Mar Ln Palm Coast, FL	2.0	2.0	977	$1,395	$1.43	3d	1	1.07mi
11 Birchtree Way Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,800	$1.32	3d	1	1.07mi
49 Brunswick Ln Unit A Palm Coast, FL	2.0	2.0	976	$1,595	$1.63	3d	1	1.10mi
63 Beaverdam Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1591	$1,895	$1.19	3d	1	1.11mi
34 Bunker Ln Palm Coast, FL	4.0	2.0	1733	$2,200	$1.27	24d	1	1.12mi
69 Beckner Ln Unit NA Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,998	$1.42	3d	1	1.12mi
75A Wellwood Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1093	$1,500	$1.37	24d	1	1.27mi
75 Wellwood Ln Unit A Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1093	$1,500	$1.37	24d	1	1.27mi
78 Belvedere Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1557	$1,750	$1.12	14d	1	1.27mi
45 Wellham Ln Unit B Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1505	$1,850	$1.23	3d	1	1.29mi
59 Wellhaven Ln Unit B Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1198	$1,900	$1.59	14d	1	1.31mi
116 Wellwood Ln Unit B Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1217	$1,475	$1.21	24d	1	1.33mi
35 Wellham Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,750	$1.35	24d	1	1.35mi
57 Wellwood Ln Palm Coast, FL	2.0	2.0	977	$1,399	$1.43	24d	1	1.37mi
127 Wellwood Ln Palm Coast, FL	2.0	2.0	977	$1,474	$1.51	3d	1	1.37mi
68 Felwood Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1033	$1,900	$1.84	3d	1	1.38mi
129 Wellwood Ln Unit B Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,650	$1.28	24d	1	1.38mi
29 Foxhall Ln Palm Coast, FL	2.0	2.0	1029	$1,800	$1.75	14d	1	1.38mi
134 Beechwood Ln Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,870	$1.37	21d	1	1.42mi
30 Farmsworth Dr Unit B Palm Coast, FL	2.0	2.0	1019	$1,600	$1.57	24d	1	1.46mi
10 Buttonworth Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,495	$1.18	21d	1	1.47mi
26 Wellwood Ln Palm Coast, FL	2.0	2.0	977	$1,400	$1.43	14d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   listed $224,900 Active
3. 2018-02-26
   soldstatus $49,500
4. 1992-05-01
   soldstatus $103,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,117 · $343/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,117 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,047
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$4,117
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,924
• − Management: −$1,924
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$4,183
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,004
• After-tax cash flow: $607/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagler
• NCES district ID: 1200540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,354
• Composite: 46.35/100
• National rank: #2464
• State rank: #20 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Coast

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #478
• US rank: #8721

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Coast, FL
• County: Flagler County · 113,412 people
• City population: 105,049
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 48,391
• Household income: $83,923
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 816.0

Population outlook (Flagler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,474 people
• By 2030: 131,864 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 146,176 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 157,398 · +27.5%
• By 2075: 177,990 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 183,381 · +48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Russian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Flagler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.2) · D 35.6% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: -28.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.2 2020: R+20.8 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -153.27%
• Current HPI: 290.4607
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+118.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Listed $224,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $49,500 Public Records
• 1992-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $103,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,117 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.