193 Hertel Ave · Buffalo, NY 14207

$84,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,317 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1900 3,120 sqft lot $64/sqft · 52% below area ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Prime opportunity on vibrant Hertel Avenue! Welcome to this well-positioned 4-bedroom, 2 full bathroom home offering both space and opportunity. The first floor features two comfortable bedrooms, along with a spacious living area that flows seamlessly into an open-concept kitchen complete with a center island perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Located in a highly convenient area, you’re just minutes from everything you need, with many amenities within walking distance. At this price point, finding a true 4-bedroom, 2-bath home is increasingly rare, making this an exceptional value. The property also features a brand-new roof installed less than six months ago, taking care of one of the major big-ticket items for peace of mind. Whether you're an owner-occupant looking to live affordably or an investor seeking strong returns, this property checks the boxes. Previously rented through Section 8 for $1,750/month, it presents solid income potential with room to grow.

Key facts

• 3,120 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 77 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $84,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$176,025) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $652 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.5% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($40k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $79,806 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.91%
• DSCR: 2.46
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $176,025
• List price: $84,900
• Delta: -51.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
195 Hertel Ave	0.01mi	3/1.0	1,236 (-6%)	1mo	$110,000	$89	88
72 Glor St	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,370 (+4%)	8mo	$160,000	$117	70
88 Progressive Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,257 (-5%)	6mo	$170,000	$135	64
54 Gorton St	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,439 (+9%)	6mo	$155,000	$108	60
87 Kail St	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,188 (-10%)	10mo	$134,900	$114	58
61 Mayer Ave	0.51mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,408 (+7%)	7mo	$210,000	$149	54
144 Dearborn St	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,209 (-8%)	3mo	$161,000	$133	53
111 Gorton St	0.29mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,508 (+14%)	6mo	$164,900	$109	53
38 Heward Ave	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,474 (+12%)	1mo	$256,000	$174	52
133 Mayer Ave	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,134 (-14%)	6mo	$195,000	$172	51
290 Crowley Ave	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,306 (-1%)	9mo	$195,000	$149	50
34 Riverside Ave	0.75mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,248 (-5%)	6mo	$137,500	$110	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $35,446
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.02×
• Total profit: $119,313
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14207

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,460 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $247/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $652

Break-even live

Break-even rent $634

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2099 Niagara St Unit A Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,197	$1.20	44d	1	0.30mi
118 Rano St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,200	$1.14	21d	1	0.38mi
15 Ontario St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	2d	1	0.41mi
155 Germain St Apt 1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	10d	1	0.52mi
62 Germain St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1320	$1,250	$0.95	24d	1	0.63mi
68 Laforce Pl Unit U Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,099	$1.22	44d	1	0.63mi
68 Peter St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$900	$1.00	24d	1	0.65mi
72 Reservation St Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	950	$1,150	$1.21	24d	1	0.71mi
239 Crowley Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	966	$1,025	$1.06	3d	1	0.71mi
158 Chadduck Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	24d	1	0.94mi
15 Beatrice Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	950	$1,150	$1.21	14d	1	0.97mi
52 Greeley St Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1804	$1,000	$0.55	24d	1	0.98mi
293 Grote St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	817	$2,345	$2.87	2d	1	1.01mi
100 Forest Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0–4.0	2.0–4.0	1304	$1,600	$1.23	2d	14	1.03mi
46 Hawley St #1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	44d	1	1.07mi
139 Fordham Dr Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1453	$1,700	$1.17	24d	1	1.16mi
1485 Niagara St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	925	$2,174	$2.35	2d	1	1.26mi
480 W Hazeltine Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	989	$1,900	$1.92	24d	1	1.27mi
305 Bird Ave Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1128	$2,300	$2.04	44d	1	1.35mi
309 Bird Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	44d	1	1.35mi
57 Abbottsford Pl Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	24d	1	1.35mi
340 Bird Ave #202 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.5	1505	$2,950	$1.96	10d	1	1.36mi
185 Potomac Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,300	$1.08	24d	1	1.38mi
232 Dewitt St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,300	$1.08	24d	1	1.38mi
37 Abbottsford Pl Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1130	$1,650	$1.46	44d	1	1.39mi
2075 Kenmore Ave Unit 611 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	981	$1,950	$1.99	2d	1	1.40mi
374 Baynes St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1126	$1,550	$1.38	44d	1	1.41mi
891 Richmond Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1176	$1,800	$1.53	44d	1	1.44mi
62 Seabrook St Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	2d	1	1.45mi
163 W Delavan Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	24d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,900 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,900 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,900 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,900 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $84,900 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $84,900 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $84,900 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,900 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $84,900 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $84,900 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $84,900 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $84,900 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,900 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,900 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-04-02
    listed $84,900 Active 992-char remark

    Show marketing remark (992 chars)

    Prime opportunity on vibrant Hertel Avenue! Welcome to this well-positioned 4-bedroom, 2 full bathroom home offering both space and opportunity. The first floor features two comfortable bedrooms, along with a spacious living area that flows seamlessly into an open-concept kitchen complete with a center island perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Located in a highly convenient area, you’re just minutes from everything you need, with many amenities within walking distance. At this price point, finding a true 4-bedroom, 2-bath home is increasingly rare, making this an exceptional value. The property also features a brand-new roof installed less than six months ago, taking care of one of the major big-ticket items for peace of mind. Whether you're an owner-occupant looking to live affordably or an investor seeking strong returns, this property checks the boxes. Previously rented through Section 8 for $1,750/month, it presents solid income potential with room to grow.

16. 2022-01-11
    historical
17. 2022-01-06
    listed $110,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $247 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $841 · $70/mo
• Expected delta: +$594/yr (+$50/mo · 240.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 16% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,515
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$247
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,401
• − Management: −$1,401
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $6,816
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,636
• After-tax cash flow: $6,187/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 26,327
• Household income: $39,753
• Rent vs Own: 65.0% rent · 35.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2177.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 16% Asian 15% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 18% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Portuguese 1% Arab 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Philippines, Canada, India
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.42%
• Current HPI: 233.0902
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-22.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $84,900 WNYREIS
• 2022-01-11 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2022-01-06 Listed $110,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $247 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.