54 Maddox Ln · Judah, IN 47421

$199,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 2012 2.00 ac lot $139/sqft · 22% below area Est $258k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled on a peaceful 2-acre lot, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home at 54 Maddox Lane in Bedford offers the perfect blend of privacy and potential. With over 1,400 square feet of living space, this cozy property features a functional layout and comfortable living areas. Surrounded by open space and mature scenery, there’s ample room to enjoy outdoor living. Whether you're searching for a starter home, investment opportunity, or a peaceful retreat, this one has plenty to offer. Don’t miss your chance to own a slice of country living with room to grow! Excluded from sale: Deep Freeze, Washer & Dryer

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• Built 2012
• Listed 62 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-162 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (33.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (33.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• North Lawrence Community Schools (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #170 of 301 in IN (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $200k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $132,160 (33.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.47%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,801
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -22.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
315 Judah Logan Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-8%)	9mo	$250,000	$189	55
3252 N Old State Road 37 Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,625 (+13%)	8mo	$305,000	$188	54
169 Guthrie RD Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,539 (+7%)	12mo	$334,900	$218	54
30 Timberland Pass	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,578 (+10%)	18mo	$291,000	$184	47
125 Burkwood Hills Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+5%)	14mo	$245,000	$162	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-42,790
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-50,893
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 47421

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,322 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $892/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $-162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,527

Max offer price $171,305

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,900 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $199,900 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active Under Contract 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active Under Contract 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active Under Contract 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active Under Contract 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,900 Active Under Contract 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active Under Contract 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    status $199,900 Active Under Contract 46 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 44 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,900 Active 43 DOM
19. 2026-05-18
    price $199,900 617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    Nestled on a peaceful 2-acre lot, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home at 54 Maddox Lane in Bedford offers the perfect blend of privacy and potential. With over 1,400 square feet of living space, this cozy property features a functional layout and comfortable living areas. Surrounded by open space and mature scenery, there’s ample room to enjoy outdoor living. Whether you're searching for a starter home, investment opportunity, or a peaceful retreat, this one has plenty to offer. Don’t miss your chance to own a slice of country living with room to grow! Excluded from sale: Deep Freeze, Washer & Dryer

20. 2026-05-01
    price $209,900 617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    Nestled on a peaceful 2-acre lot, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home at 54 Maddox Lane in Bedford offers the perfect blend of privacy and potential. With over 1,400 square feet of living space, this cozy property features a functional layout and comfortable living areas. Surrounded by open space and mature scenery, there’s ample room to enjoy outdoor living. Whether you're searching for a starter home, investment opportunity, or a peaceful retreat, this one has plenty to offer. Don’t miss your chance to own a slice of country living with room to grow! Excluded from sale: Deep Freeze, Washer & Dryer

21. 2026-04-17
    listed $219,900 Active 617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    Nestled on a peaceful 2-acre lot, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home at 54 Maddox Lane in Bedford offers the perfect blend of privacy and potential. With over 1,400 square feet of living space, this cozy property features a functional layout and comfortable living areas. Surrounded by open space and mature scenery, there’s ample room to enjoy outdoor living. Whether you're searching for a starter home, investment opportunity, or a peaceful retreat, this one has plenty to offer. Don’t miss your chance to own a slice of country living with room to grow! Excluded from sale: Deep Freeze, Washer & Dryer

22. 2018-12-11
    soldstatus $120,000
23. 2012-09-06
    soldstatus $45,000
24. 2009-10-09
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $892 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,296 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: +$403/yr (+$34/mo · 45.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,859
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$892
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,269
• − Management: −$1,269
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$5,583
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,340
• After-tax cash flow: $-603/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Lawrence Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 1807860
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $44,566
• Composite: 31.88/100
• National rank: #5864
• State rank: #170 of 301 in IN

Livability — Judah

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Judah, IN
• County: Lawrence County · 27,599 people
• Metro: Bedford, IN
• Population (ZIP): 27,599
• Household income: $68,108
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 507.0

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,347 people
• By 2030: 43,331 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 40,887 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 38,297 · -13.6%
• By 2075: 32,479 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 26,051 · -41.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 23.6% · R 74.6% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.6pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+50.6 2016: R+51.5 2012: R+32.8 2008: R+20.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.32%
• Current HPI: 240.959
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bedford, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+1232.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $199,900 IRMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $209,900 IRMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $219,900 IRMLS
• 2018-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2012-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2009-10-09 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $892 · -7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.