3958 Sabal Dr · University, FL 32765

$19,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured · 82 Days on market

Built 1984 Est $13k · 48% over ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome Home! This cozy home features, SPACIOUS OPEN FLOOR PLAN, HIGH CEILINGS, ISLAND EAT-IN KITCHEN, INSIDE LAUNDRY, LOTS of CLOSET STORAGE, 2 LARGE SCREENED PORCH, & more. .. LOCATED CLOSE TO MAJOR SHOPPING, HOSPITALS, RESTAURANTS, & 434. THIS ACTIVE 55 + COMMUNITY FEATURES, CLUBHOUSE, FITNESS, PICKLE BALL, SWIMMING POOL, WHIRLPOOL SPA, BILLIARDS, BOCCE BALL, SHUFFLEBOARD, MINIATURE GOLF, TENNIS, & DAILY SOCIAL EVENTS, BINGO, DANCING, FARMER'S MARKET, LAWN MAINTENANCE, PRIVATE WATER. .. Come Enjoy Life! This stunning home is a MUST SEE, CALL NOW!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Clubhouse
• Large screened porch

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ISLAND EAT-IN KITCHEN
• LARGE SCREENED PORCH
• CLOSE TO MAJOR SHOPPING
• CLUBHOUSE
• FITNESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions provided to property
• Financial info: Monthly land lease payment applies
• HOA & community: Has HOA (association name listed); Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, spa/hot tub, tennis courts, shuffleboard court, recreation facilities, maintenance; Association fee includes pool, grounds maintenance, private road, recreational facilities; Community features include clubhouse, deed restrictions, fitness center, golf carts allowed, no truck/RV/motorcycle parking, pool, sidewalks, tennis courts; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Private sewer; Water connected; Sewer connected; Electricity connected; Cable available; Water source: None
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One level; North-facing
• Construction: Metal siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Exterior lighting; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Open floorplan; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry; Laundry closet; Outside laundry access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $19k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 82.0% vs local median 3.8% in University — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#28 in FL, #603 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Seminole (suburban): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #13 of 73 in FL (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 450 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,979 units permitted in Seminole County in 2024 (1,191 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $597 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Seminole County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.2% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($19k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $18,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 8.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 81.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 270.34%
• DSCR: 13.03
• GRM: 0.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $13,440
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
303 Del Ray Dr	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+15%)	6mo	$15,500	$14	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.90×
• Total profit: $71,887
• Equity at exit: $2,967

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 27.34×
• Total profit: $146,786
• Equity at exit: $1,721

Cash invested: $5,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32765

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 450
• Price-to-rent: 0.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,763 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$104
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$25 /mo · $298/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $1,255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $174

Max offer price $19,900

Occupancy floor 24%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,269	-5% $1,262	+0% $1,255	+5% $1,248	+10% $1,242
Rent	-10% $1,116	-5% $1,186	+0% $1,255	+5% $1,325	+10% $1,395
Rate	-1.0pp $1,265	-0.5pp $1,260	base $1,255	+0.5pp $1,250	+1.0pp $1,245

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,975
• Closing costs: $597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
116 Reserve Cir #204 Oviedo, FL	2.0	2.0	975	$1,000	$1.03	25d	1	0.60mi
144 Reserve Cir #100 Oviedo, FL	2.0	2.0	1098	$1,599	$1.46	16d	1	0.67mi
209 Reserve Cir Unit 101 Oviedo, FL	2.0	2.0	975	$2,000	$2.05	25d	1	0.70mi
141 Reserve Cir #213 Oviedo, FL	2.0	2.0	985	$1,700	$1.73	12d	1	0.70mi
141 Reserve Cir #213 Oviedo, FL	2.0	2.0	985	$1,700	$1.73	6d	1	0.70mi
149 Reserve Cir #201 Oviedo, FL	2.0	2.0	985	$1,499	$1.52	12d	1	0.71mi
2980 Grandeville Cir Oviedo, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1365	$2,042	$1.50	3d	31	0.77mi
2590 Greenhill Way Oviedo, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$2,020	$1.90	3d	18	0.90mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $19,900 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $24,900 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $24,900 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $24,900 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $24,900 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $24,900 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $24,900 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $24,900 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $24,900 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $24,900 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $24,900 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $24,900 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $24,900 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $24,900 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    price $24,900
16. 2026-03-31
    listed $29,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,157
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,115
• − Property taxes: −$298
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,693
• − Management: −$1,693
• − Depreciation: −$579
• Taxable income: $15,680
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,763
• After-tax cash flow: $11,300/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seminole
• NCES district ID: 1201710
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $58,478
• Composite: 51.05/100
• National rank: #1769
• State rank: #13 of 73 in FL

Livability — University

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #603

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Seminole County · 436,154 people
• City population: 41,570
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 64,477
• Household income: $102,167
• Rent vs Own: 28.9% rent · 71.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2059.0

Population outlook (Seminole County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 515,494 people
• By 2030: 545,713 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 598,068 · +16.0%
• By 2050: 640,663 · +24.3%
• By 2075: 724,461 · +40.5%
• By 2100: 755,530 · +46.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 15% Black 8% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Seminole

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.6% · R 51.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.8pp no change · 2008: -2.8pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.8 2016: R+1.6 2012: R+6.5 2008: R+2.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.94%
• Current HPI: 315.5484
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.18%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $24,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listed $29,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid