16735 Dixie Hwy · Hazel Crest, IL 60429

$153,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 965 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1943 0.27 ac lot Est $134k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.2/15.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This inviting home features a bright and spacious layout designed for practical living. The main level offers generous living space filled with natural light, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The wood burning fireplace and built in bookcases add charm and character to the living room. The hardwood floors were recently refinished throughout, as well as the kitchen floor. Fresh paint throughout, truly move in ready!! Outside, the property includes a sizable yard with room to relax, garden, or host gatherings. The lot provides both privacy and usability, with convenient off-street parking and easy access to the main roadway. Located along Dixie Highway, the home offers quick access to

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1943

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $153k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $999 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $153k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 9.0% in Hazel Crest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#229 in IL, #4,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $148,410 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.99%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $134,135
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16735 Dixie Hwy	0.00mi	2/1.0	965 (0%)	1mo	$153,000	$159	99
16768 Bulger Ave	0.16mi	2/1.0	954 (-1%)	4mo	$125,000	$131	87
16784 Trapet Ave	0.22mi	3/1.0 (+1)	970 (+0%)	1mo	$96,000	$99	83
16807 Wood St	0.25mi	3/1.0 (+1)	985 (+2%)	0mo	$90,000	$91	80
1924 169th St	0.14mi	2/1.0	1,086 (+12%)	3mo	$189,900	$175	70
16607 Winchester Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,053 (+9%)	5mo	$226,000	$215	62
16738 Crane Ave	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,059 (+10%)	2mo	$147,000	$139	61
16784 Crane Ave	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,059 (+10%)	2mo	$155,000	$146	61
16300 Winchester Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,012 (+5%)	2mo	$97,500	$96	58
16444 Wolcott Ave	0.40mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,080 (+12%)	3mo	$112,500	$104	52
16969 Orchard Ridge Ave	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,064 (+10%)	5mo	$52,000	$49	50
16221 Hermitage Ave	0.75mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,044 (+8%)	1mo	$192,000	$184	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $38,807
• Equity at exit: $22,813

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.70×
• Total profit: $115,560
• Equity at exit: $13,229

Cash invested: $42,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60429

• Home prices YoY: -14.0%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,434 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$802
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $692/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$511
• Net cashflow: $999

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,169

Max offer price $153,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,086	-5% $1,043	+0% $999	+5% $956	+10% $913
Rent	-10% $807	-5% $903	+0% $999	+5% $1,095	+10% $1,192
Rate	-1.0pp $1,076	-0.5pp $1,038	base $999	+0.5pp $960	+1.0pp $919

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,250
• Closing costs: $4,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2308 170th St Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	2.0	1020	$2,400	$2.35	0d	1	0.50mi
16752 Artesian Ave Hazel Crest, IL	3.0	1.0	867	$2,500	$2.88	0d	1	0.59mi
16125 Marshfield Ave Markham, IL	3.0	1.0	1043	$2,400	$2.30	0d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-14
   historical Contingent - No Showings

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $692 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,082 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,391/yr (+$116/mo · 201.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,211
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,570
• − Property taxes: −$692
• − Insurance: −$765
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,337
• − Management: −$2,337
• − Depreciation: −$4,451
• Taxable income: $10,059
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,414
• After-tax cash flow: $9,577/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thornton Twp Hsd 205
• NCES district ID: 1738970
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 8% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,392
• Composite: 6.92/100
• National rank: #9976
• State rank: #594 of 620 in IL

Livability — Hazel Crest

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #229
• US rank: #4242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hazel Crest, IL
• City population: 14,602
• Population (ZIP): 14,602

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 83% White 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.04%
• Current HPI: 282.3552
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Property tax history

-7.9%/yr

Latest (2023): $692 · +85.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.