3263 Vineyard Ave #44 · Pleasanton, CA 94566

$179,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured · 74 Days on market

Built 1975 $110/sqft · 35% below area Est $275k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +7.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Senior Park Community with mandatory Guidelines and Park Residency Requirements. Must be 55 Plus. Must be approved by Park Manager Very Spacious Unit with 1,620 square feet of Living space! Tons of Natural Lighting Throughout Unit! Modern Laminate Flooring Throughout! Open Kitchen concept to Living Area with Outdoor views. Kitchen is complemented by Corian counters, Newer Kitchen Gas Cook Top, Double Door Refrigerator, built in Storage Pantry and opens to living space. Primary Bedroom boasts Large walk-in Closet with convenient Storage and Lighting, Primary bath, Walk-In Shower W/Seat, Glass Sliding Doors and Roomy Linen Closet. Second Bedroom offers another Walk-In Closet, right off of Bedroom W/Stall Shower & Vanity W/Mirror. Indoor laundry room W/Washer & Dryer included. Nice rear yard could be for small dog or garden area. Property has a storage unit at the end of a two car carport. This entire Unit is Bright and Welcoming of the next new Owner to make it there Own! Exterior has newer paint, just 2 years fresh! Seller has moved to another property in park! Buyers will like all the room this Unit Offers, Unit located close to Rec room, pool, paths for strolling to meet the neighbors! Welcome to Vineyard Estates!

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1975
• Listed 73 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $168k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 1.3% in Pleasanton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#17 in CA, #655 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Pleasanton Unified (urban): math 75% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #43 of 1,400 in CA (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.75%
• DSCR: 2.64
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,000
• List price: $179,000
• Delta: -34.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3263 Vineyard Ave #174	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-1%)	4mo	$315,000	$197	83
3263 Vineyard Ave., #116 #116	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (0%)	11mo	$399,999	$247	82
3263 Vineyard Ave #42	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,590 (-2%)	9mo	$402,000	$253	81
3263 Vineyard Ave #125	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,578 (-3%)	7mo	$310,000	$196	81
3263 Vineyard Ave #199	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,500 (-7%)	16mo	$228,000	$152	74
3263 Vineyard Ave #26	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,508 (-7%)	14mo	$390,000	$259	70
3263 Vineyard Ave #178	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-11%)	8mo	$238,000	$165	69
3231 Vineyard Ave Spc 93	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,413 (-13%)	3mo	$287,000	$203	68
3231 Vineyard Ave #76	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,431 (-12%)	2mo	$370,000	$259	67
3263 Vineyard Ave #189	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (-7%)	10mo	$350,000	$231	66
3231 Vineyard Ave., #102 #102	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-11%)	9mo	$205,000	$142	66
3231 Vineyard Ave., #55 #55	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,400 (-14%)	14mo	$236,500	$169	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $79,865
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.87×
• Total profit: $243,944
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94566

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,509 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$224 /mo · $2,685/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$737
• Net cashflow: $1,535

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,566

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,659	-5% $1,597	+0% $1,535	+5% $1,473	+10% $1,411
Rent	-10% $1,258	-5% $1,396	+0% $1,535	+5% $1,673	+10% $1,812
Rate	-1.0pp $1,625	-0.5pp $1,580	base $1,535	+0.5pp $1,489	+1.0pp $1,441

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
749 Palomino Dr Unit C Pleasanton, CA	2.0	1.5	1130	$3,250	$2.88	44d	1	0.40mi
835 Palomino Dr Unit 2 Pleasanton, CA	2.0	1.5	1080	$2,850	$2.64	21d	1	0.43mi
3819 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	863	$2,940	$3.40	0d	14	0.50mi
242 Birch Creek Dr Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.5	1221	$3,100	$2.54	44d	1	0.56mi
223 Birch Creek Dr Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.5	1848	$4,800	$2.60	4d	1	0.61mi
4059 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$3,850	$2.96	25d	1	0.74mi
1539 Trimingham Dr Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	1369	$3,600	$2.63	3d	1	1.16mi
4678 Whiting St Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.0	1538	$5,500	$3.58	25d	1	1.18mi
4468 Del Valle Pkwy Unit 1 Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	1280	$3,100	$2.42	17d	1	1.36mi
4320 Valley Ave Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	1073	$3,474	$3.24	4d	2	1.43mi
627 Rose Ave Apt 2 Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	1550	$3,288	$2.12	44d	1	1.45mi
627 Rose Ave Unit 1 Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.0	1600	$3,788	$2.37	44d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,000 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $179,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $185,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    price $185,000 1243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1243 chars)

    Senior Park Community with mandatory Guidelines and Park Residency Requirements. Must be 55 Plus. Must be approved by Park Manager Very Spacious Unit with 1,620 square feet of Living space! Tons of Natural Lighting Throughout Unit! Modern Laminate Flooring Throughout! Open Kitchen concept to Living Area with Outdoor views. Kitchen is complemented by Corian counters, Newer Kitchen Gas Cook Top, Double Door Refrigerator, built in Storage Pantry and opens to living space. Primary Bedroom boasts Large walk-in Closet with convenient Storage and Lighting, Primary bath, Walk-In Shower W/Seat, Glass Sliding Doors and Roomy Linen Closet. Second Bedroom offers another Walk-In Closet, right off of Bedroom W/Stall Shower & Vanity W/Mirror. Indoor laundry room W/Washer & Dryer included. Nice rear yard could be for small dog or garden area. Property has a storage unit at the end of a two car carport. This entire Unit is Bright and Welcoming of the next new Owner to make it there Own! Exterior has newer paint, just 2 years fresh! Seller has moved to another property in park! Buyers will like all the room this Unit Offers, Unit located close to Rec room, pool, paths for strolling to meet the neighbors! Welcome to Vineyard Estates!

17. 2026-04-08
    historical

    Show marketing remark (1243 chars)

    Senior Park Community with mandatory Guidelines and Park Residency Requirements. Must be 55 Plus. Must be approved by Park Manager Very Spacious Unit with 1,620 square feet of Living space! Tons of Natural Lighting Throughout Unit! Modern Laminate Flooring Throughout! Open Kitchen concept to Living Area with Outdoor views. Kitchen is complemented by Corian counters, Newer Kitchen Gas Cook Top, Double Door Refrigerator, built in Storage Pantry and opens to living space. Primary Bedroom boasts Large walk-in Closet with convenient Storage and Lighting, Primary bath, Walk-In Shower W/Seat, Glass Sliding Doors and Roomy Linen Closet. Second Bedroom offers another Walk-In Closet, right off of Bedroom W/Stall Shower & Vanity W/Mirror. Indoor laundry room W/Washer & Dryer included. Nice rear yard could be for small dog or garden area. Property has a storage unit at the end of a two car carport. This entire Unit is Bright and Welcoming of the next new Owner to make it there Own! Exterior has newer paint, just 2 years fresh! Seller has moved to another property in park! Buyers will like all the room this Unit Offers, Unit located close to Rec room, pool, paths for strolling to meet the neighbors! Welcome to Vineyard Estates!

18. 2026-04-08
    listed $195,000 Active 1243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1243 chars)

    Senior Park Community with mandatory Guidelines and Park Residency Requirements. Must be 55 Plus. Must be approved by Park Manager Very Spacious Unit with 1,620 square feet of Living space! Tons of Natural Lighting Throughout Unit! Modern Laminate Flooring Throughout! Open Kitchen concept to Living Area with Outdoor views. Kitchen is complemented by Corian counters, Newer Kitchen Gas Cook Top, Double Door Refrigerator, built in Storage Pantry and opens to living space. Primary Bedroom boasts Large walk-in Closet with convenient Storage and Lighting, Primary bath, Walk-In Shower W/Seat, Glass Sliding Doors and Roomy Linen Closet. Second Bedroom offers another Walk-In Closet, right off of Bedroom W/Stall Shower & Vanity W/Mirror. Indoor laundry room W/Washer & Dryer included. Nice rear yard could be for small dog or garden area. Property has a storage unit at the end of a two car carport. This entire Unit is Bright and Welcoming of the next new Owner to make it there Own! Exterior has newer paint, just 2 years fresh! Seller has moved to another property in park! Buyers will like all the room this Unit Offers, Unit located close to Rec room, pool, paths for strolling to meet the neighbors! Welcome to Vineyard Estates!

19. 2026-01-24
    price
20. 2025-10-09
    listed Active
21. 2024-09-06
    soldstatus $200,000 Closed
22. 2024-09-06
    soldstatus $200,000
23. 2024-08-18
    status Pending
24. 2024-07-25
    listed $219,000 Active
25. 2024-07-25
    listed $219,000
26. 2021-04-19
    soldstatus $180,000 Sold
27. 2021-04-12
    status Pending
28. 2021-02-09
    listed $198,000 New
29. 2013-10-31
    soldstatus $67,500 Sold
30. 2013-10-04
    status Pending
31. 2013-09-30
    listed $71,500 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,105
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$2,685
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,368
• − Management: −$3,368
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $16,554
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,973
• After-tax cash flow: $14,446/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pleasanton Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600020
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $123,770
• Composite: 73.12/100
• National rank: #351
• State rank: #43 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Pleasanton

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #655

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pleasanton, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 78,550
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,222
• Household income: $191,155
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1190.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Asian 38% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Russian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 33% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Chinese 10% Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -841.68%
• Current HPI: 308.8324
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.04%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+158.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $185,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-08 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-08 Listed $195,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-10-09 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-09-06 Sold (MLS) $200,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2024-09-06 Sold (MLS) $200,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-08-18 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-07-25 Listed $219,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2024-07-25 Listed $219,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2021-04-19 Sold (MLS) $180,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2021-04-12 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2021-02-09 Listed $198,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2013-10-31 Sold (MLS) $67,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2013-10-04 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2013-09-30 Listed $71,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR