1530 45th Avenue Dr E · Ellenton, FL 34222

$187,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1979 4,182 sqft lot Est $143k · 31% over $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Tidevue Estates a land owned 55+ community. Annual HOA fee is only $456. This home is move in ready. If you like to cook this is the kitchen for you. Stainless steel Whirlpool appliances, all new wood cabinets in dove grey with soft close doors and deep stainless steel sink. Pendent lighting over breakfast bar. Spacious living room has a electric fireplace, free standing book shelves and a built in book shelf. Pergo extreme performance floating floor in Highland Hickory flows through entire home. 6" baseboard's and crown moulding through out home. Two inch faux wood blinds cover updated windows. Relax and enjoy the afternoons on the window wrapped Florida Room. Plenty of space for a office too. Owners suite has a walk-in closet and faux fireplace. Pamper yourself in the updated en-suite which has a new vanity with marble counter top, walk-in shower, Wayne's coating and a unique wood ceiling. A 15x12 shed has room for a workshop and is air conditioned. A one year American Home Shield home warranty comes with this home. Pets are not permitted. Meet friends for a game of pickle ball, bocce ball or shuffleboard. Take a aerobics class in the heated community pool. Connect to WI-FI at the community library. Work out in the fitness room. Many other activities are offered. Convenient location to I-75, Ellenton Premium Outlet Mall, restaurants, medical facility's and 13.6 miles to beautiful Gulf Beaches. Pictures reflect when home was furnished. Come Join The Tidevue Life Style Today!

Key facts

• Built in storage
• Land owned
• Move in ready

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• LAND OWNED
• MODERN KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST COUNTER
• SUN DRENCHED FLORIDA ROOM
• BUILT IN STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Turnkey / furnished; Total annual fees $600
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Tidevue Estates Civic Organization) with required approval for buyers; HOA fee $600 annually ($50/month); Association amenities include fitness center, laundry, park, pool, recreational facilities, pickleball and shuffleboard courts; Senior community; Deed restrictions; Street lights; Golf carts allowed; Association recreation owned

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Underground utilities; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One level; Northwest facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding over frame construction; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a double wide
• Exterior features: Awnings; Private mailbox; Asphalt road access; Public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Open floorplan; Walk-in closet(s); Electric fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $188k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $730 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $188k).
• Recommended offer: $177k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blackburn Elementary School (math 62% / reading 42%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 551 students, 78% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 51% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 185 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,546/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 313% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $188k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,626 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.65%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $143,360
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4214 15th St E	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+3%)	1mo	$220,000	$191	83
4508 14th St E	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-6%)	3mo	$110,000	$104	81
4547 12th Street Ct E	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,176 (+5%)	6mo	$61,000	$52	78
1206 45th Avenue Dr E	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-6%)	2mo	$135,000	$128	75
4207 13th St E	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-6%)	3mo	$123,000	$116	73
4314 12th Street Ct E	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,190 (+6%)	2mo	$105,000	$88	70
1210 44th Avenue Dr E	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,008 (-10%)	2mo	$130,000	$129	69
1208 45th Avenue Dr E	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,008 (-10%)	5mo	$65,000	$64	66
1432 41st Ave E	0.29mi	2/1.5	1,000 (-11%)	3mo	$189,000	$189	64
4212 13th St E	0.30mi	2/2.0	960 (-14%)	2mo	$175,000	$182	60
1224 41st Avenue Dr E	0.35mi	2/2.0	963 (-14%)	4mo	$125,000	$130	56
1005 45th Ave E	0.38mi	2/2.0	960 (-14%)	4mo	$100,000	$104	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $16,085
• Equity at exit: $28,017

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $74,002
• Equity at exit: $16,246

Cash invested: $52,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34222

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,546 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$985
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,006/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$535
• Net cashflow: $730

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,621

Max offer price $187,900

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $837	-5% $783	+0% $730	+5% $677	+10% $624
Rent	-10% $529	-5% $630	+0% $730	+5% $831	+10% $931
Rate	-1.0pp $825	-0.5pp $778	base $730	+0.5pp $681	+1.0pp $632

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,975
• Closing costs: $5,637
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4180 Yardly Dr Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$2,498	$2.45	5d	15	0.26mi
5021 US Highway 301 N Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.5	861	$3,900	$4.53	5d	1	0.37mi
4612 8th Street Ct E Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1210	$3,000	$2.48	25d	1	0.55mi
4711 8th Street Ct E Ellenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1350	$2,100	$1.56	25d	1	0.58mi
4403 7th St E #4 Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1079	$2,700	$2.50	25d	1	0.70mi
1651 36th Ave E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	804	$1,397	$1.74	5d	13	0.72mi
5942 Factory Shops Blvd Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$2,362	$2.48	3d	67	0.97mi
2710 59th Dr E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$2,234	$1.94	4d	37	1.15mi
850 Tidewater Shores Loop #402 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1151	$2,650	$2.30	25d	1	1.32mi
4648 Lindever Ln Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,289	$1.53	4d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: electricinternetpool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-21
   listed $187,900 Active
3. 2019-11-08
   soldstatus $125,000
4. 2019-11-07
   soldstatus $125,000 Sold 1516-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1516 chars)

   Welcome to Tidevue Estates a land owned 55+ community. Annual HOA fee is only $456. This home is move in ready. If you like to cook this is the kitchen for you. Stainless steel Whirlpool appliances, all new wood cabinets in dove grey with soft close doors and deep stainless steel sink. Pendent lighting over breakfast bar. Spacious living room has a electric fireplace, free standing book shelves and a built in book shelf. Pergo extreme performance floating floor in Highland Hickory flows through entire home. 6" baseboard's and crown moulding through out home. Two inch faux wood blinds cover updated windows. Relax and enjoy the afternoons on the window wrapped Florida Room. Plenty of space for a office too. Owners suite has a walk-in closet and faux fireplace. Pamper yourself in the updated en-suite which has a new vanity with marble counter top, walk-in shower, Wayne's coating and a unique wood ceiling. A 15x12 shed has room for a workshop and is air conditioned. A one year American Home Shield home warranty comes with this home. Pets are not permitted. Meet friends for a game of pickle ball, bocce ball or shuffleboard. Take a aerobics class in the heated community pool. Connect to WI-FI at the community library. Work out in the fitness room. Many other activities are offered. Convenient location to I-75, Ellenton Premium Outlet Mall, restaurants, medical facility's and 13.6 miles to beautiful Gulf Beaches. Pictures reflect when home was furnished. Come Join The Tidevue Life Style Today!

5. 2019-10-17
   status Pending 1516-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1516 chars)

   Welcome to Tidevue Estates a land owned 55+ community. Annual HOA fee is only $456. This home is move in ready. If you like to cook this is the kitchen for you. Stainless steel Whirlpool appliances, all new wood cabinets in dove grey with soft close doors and deep stainless steel sink. Pendent lighting over breakfast bar. Spacious living room has a electric fireplace, free standing book shelves and a built in book shelf. Pergo extreme performance floating floor in Highland Hickory flows through entire home. 6" baseboard's and crown moulding through out home. Two inch faux wood blinds cover updated windows. Relax and enjoy the afternoons on the window wrapped Florida Room. Plenty of space for a office too. Owners suite has a walk-in closet and faux fireplace. Pamper yourself in the updated en-suite which has a new vanity with marble counter top, walk-in shower, Wayne's coating and a unique wood ceiling. A 15x12 shed has room for a workshop and is air conditioned. A one year American Home Shield home warranty comes with this home. Pets are not permitted. Meet friends for a game of pickle ball, bocce ball or shuffleboard. Take a aerobics class in the heated community pool. Connect to WI-FI at the community library. Work out in the fitness room. Many other activities are offered. Convenient location to I-75, Ellenton Premium Outlet Mall, restaurants, medical facility's and 13.6 miles to beautiful Gulf Beaches. Pictures reflect when home was furnished. Come Join The Tidevue Life Style Today!

6. 2019-10-07
   listed $129,900 Active 1516-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1516 chars)

   Welcome to Tidevue Estates a land owned 55+ community. Annual HOA fee is only $456. This home is move in ready. If you like to cook this is the kitchen for you. Stainless steel Whirlpool appliances, all new wood cabinets in dove grey with soft close doors and deep stainless steel sink. Pendent lighting over breakfast bar. Spacious living room has a electric fireplace, free standing book shelves and a built in book shelf. Pergo extreme performance floating floor in Highland Hickory flows through entire home. 6" baseboard's and crown moulding through out home. Two inch faux wood blinds cover updated windows. Relax and enjoy the afternoons on the window wrapped Florida Room. Plenty of space for a office too. Owners suite has a walk-in closet and faux fireplace. Pamper yourself in the updated en-suite which has a new vanity with marble counter top, walk-in shower, Wayne's coating and a unique wood ceiling. A 15x12 shed has room for a workshop and is air conditioned. A one year American Home Shield home warranty comes with this home. Pets are not permitted. Meet friends for a game of pickle ball, bocce ball or shuffleboard. Take a aerobics class in the heated community pool. Connect to WI-FI at the community library. Work out in the fitness room. Many other activities are offered. Convenient location to I-75, Ellenton Premium Outlet Mall, restaurants, medical facility's and 13.6 miles to beautiful Gulf Beaches. Pictures reflect when home was furnished. Come Join The Tidevue Life Style Today!

7. 2019-04-05
   historical
8. 2018-10-06
   listed $142,500 Active
9. 2016-08-17
   soldstatus $95,000
10. 2016-08-15
    soldstatus $95,000 Sold
11. 2016-08-08
    status Pending
12. 2016-07-18
    historical Contingent - Inspections
13. 2016-07-12
    price $99,000
14. 2016-07-12
    status Active
15. 2016-05-28
    historical Active with Contract
16. 2016-04-10
    price $101,850
17. 2016-03-16
    price $101,900
18. 2016-03-01
    listed $102,900 Active
19. 2016-01-25
    soldstatus $82,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,006 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,006 · $167/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,547
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,525
• − Property taxes: −$2,006
• − Insurance: −$940
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,444
• − Management: −$2,444
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$5,466
• Taxable income: $6,122
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,469
• After-tax cash flow: $7,293/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellenton, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,819
• Household income: $64,355
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.75%
• Current HPI: 293.2597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+129.1% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-21 Listed $187,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2019-11-07 Sold (MLS) $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-07 Listed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-05 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-06 Listed $142,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2016-08-15 Sold (MLS) $95,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-18 Contingent — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-12 Price Changed $99,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-12 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-28 Contingent — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-10 Price Changed $101,850 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-16 Price Changed $101,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-01 Listed $102,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-25 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,006 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.