2407 Abbott Ave · Alamogordo, NM 88310

$99,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1958 6,534 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a great opportunity to purchase an affordable home located in a central Alamogordo location. This property features 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, along with a large enclosed backyard. While the home will need some refurbishing and updating, it is an excellent opportunity to make the space your own. If you are handy, you can save a significant amount of money and benefit from the very affordable listing price. Please call your broker to schedule a showing while it is still available.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Built 1958
• Listed 57 days

Tags

• CENTRAL ALAMOGORDO LOCATION
• LARGE ENCLOSED BACKYARD
• AFFORDABLE LISTING PRICE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $692 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#5 in NM, #3,233 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, employment D, schools F.
• Alamogordo Public Schools (town): math 26% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #26 of 95 in NM (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 449 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Otero County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.69%
• DSCR: 2.32
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $25,647
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.51×
• Total profit: $70,135
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88310

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 449
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,657 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $621/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $692

Break-even live

Break-even rent $781

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $749	-5% $720	+0% $692	+5% $664	+10% $635
Rent	-10% $561	-5% $627	+0% $692	+5% $757	+10% $823
Rate	-1.0pp $742	-0.5pp $717	base $692	+0.5pp $666	+1.0pp $640

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2637 Las Alturas Ct Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,600	$1.17	45d	1	0.24mi
2200 1st St Alamogordo, NM	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1011	$1,979	$1.96	4d	18	0.44mi
1301 Fillmore Ave Alamogordo, NM	2.0	1.0	967	$1,095	$1.13	46d	2	0.70mi
2300 Aspen Dr Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,400	$1.02	4d	1	0.70mi
1309 Jackson Ave Alamogordo, NM	4.0	2.0	1467	$1,500	$1.02	45d	1	0.79mi
1502 Campbell Pl Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1816	$1,450	$0.80	25d	1	0.90mi
1301 Jefferson Ave Unit LAST ONE AVAILABLE!! Alamogordo, NM	2.0	2.0	892	$1,425	$1.60	4d	1	0.93mi
2606 Pontiac Dr Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1785	$1,650	$0.92	25d	1	0.96mi
1104 San Miguel Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1749	$2,500	$1.43	4d	1	1.14mi
1514 Utah Ave Alamogordo, NM	2.0	1.0	1119	$1,450	$1.30	16d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending 489-char remark

   Show marketing remark (489 chars)

   This is a great opportunity to purchase an affordable home located in a central Alamogordo location. This property features 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, along with a large enclosed backyard. While the home will need some refurbishing and updating, it is an excellent opportunity to make the space your own. If you are handy, you can save a significant amount of money and benefit from the very affordable listing price. Please call your broker to schedule a showing while it is still available.

2. 2026-04-24
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (489 chars)

   This is a great opportunity to purchase an affordable home located in a central Alamogordo location. This property features 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, along with a large enclosed backyard. While the home will need some refurbishing and updating, it is an excellent opportunity to make the space your own. If you are handy, you can save a significant amount of money and benefit from the very affordable listing price. Please call your broker to schedule a showing while it is still available.

3. 2026-02-27
   listed $99,000 Active 489-char remark

   Show marketing remark (489 chars)

   This is a great opportunity to purchase an affordable home located in a central Alamogordo location. This property features 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, along with a large enclosed backyard. While the home will need some refurbishing and updating, it is an excellent opportunity to make the space your own. If you are handy, you can save a significant amount of money and benefit from the very affordable listing price. Please call your broker to schedule a showing while it is still available.

4. 2026-02-24
   listed $99,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $621 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $799 · $67/mo
• Expected delta: +$178/yr (+$15/mo · 28.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥90°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,888
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$621
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,591
• − Management: −$1,591
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $7,083
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,700
• After-tax cash flow: $6,604/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alamogordo Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500030
• Math proficiency: 26% —
• Reading proficiency: 39% —
• Median HH income: $42,194
• Composite: 30.24/100
• National rank: #11572
• State rank: #26 of 95 in NM

Livability — Alamogordo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #3233

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alamogordo, NM
• County: Otero County · 36,983 people
• City population: 36,983
• Metro: Alamogordo, NM
• Population (ZIP): 36,983
• Household income: $57,214
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1231.0

Population outlook (Otero County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,967 people
• By 2030: 62,164 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 60,253 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 58,575 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 55,411 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 48,551 · -22.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Otero

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.4% · R 62.4% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+25.6 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -174.88%
• Current HPI: 181.737
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Alamogordo, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-0.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — OCAOR
• 2026-04-24 Pending — SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-02-27 Listed $99,000 OCAOR
• 2026-02-24 Listed $99,900 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $621 · +13.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.