385 County Rd 191 · Gary City, TX 75643

$99,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 229 Days on market

Built 1997 0.60 ac lot $82/sqft · 63% below area ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Three adjoining deeded lots featuring a 16' x 76' Champion manufactured home with partial water views of beautiful Lake Murvaul. Enjoy the peace and quiet of this charming neighborhood while staying just minutes from convenient public lake access. Whether you’re looking for a permanent residence, investment opportunity, or a weekend getaway, this property offers the perfect blend of comfort and location. There is an additional adjoining lot 17 being sold separately on MLS 20257517 “Please be advised that the amount for yearly property taxes is subject to change depending on the exemptions filed with the appraisal district”.

Key facts

• Partial water views
• Public lake access
• 0.6 acre lot

Tags

• PARTIAL WATER VIEWS
• PUBLIC LAKE ACCESS
• CHARMING NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $223 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,412 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Gary ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #410 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Panola County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($692 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Panola County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 229 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $87,991 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 229 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.54%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,424
• List price: $99,990
• Delta: -63.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
138 County Road 191	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-1%)	9mo	$279,500	$233	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $26,198
• Equity at exit: $44,960

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.62×
• Total profit: $73,375
• Equity at exit: $69,288

Cash invested: $27,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75643

• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,073 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $706/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $223

Break-even live

Break-even rent $791

Max offer price $99,990

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $279	-5% $251	+0% $223	+5% $194	+10% $166
Rent	-10% $138	-5% $180	+0% $223	+5% $265	+10% $307
Rate	-1.0pp $273	-0.5pp $248	base $223	+0.5pp $197	+1.0pp $170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,998
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,990 Active 229 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,990 Active 227 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,990 Active 226 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,990 Active 225 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,990 Active 224 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,990 Active 222 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,990 Active 221 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,990 Active 218 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,990 Active 217 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,990 Active 216 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,990 Active 215 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,990 Active 212 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,990 Active 211 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,990 Active 210 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,990 Active 209 DOM
16. 2026-04-21
    price $99,990 650-char remark

    Show marketing remark (650 chars)

    Three adjoining deeded lots featuring a 16' x 76' Champion manufactured home with partial water views of beautiful Lake Murvaul. Enjoy the peace and quiet of this charming neighborhood while staying just minutes from convenient public lake access. Whether you’re looking for a permanent residence, investment opportunity, or a weekend getaway, this property offers the perfect blend of comfort and location. There is an additional adjoining lot 17 being sold separately on MLS 20257517 “Please be advised that the amount for yearly property taxes is subject to change depending on the exemptions filed with the appraisal district”.

17. 2026-01-16
    price $104,990 650-char remark

    Show marketing remark (650 chars)

    Three adjoining deeded lots featuring a 16' x 76' Champion manufactured home with partial water views of beautiful Lake Murvaul. Enjoy the peace and quiet of this charming neighborhood while staying just minutes from convenient public lake access. Whether you’re looking for a permanent residence, investment opportunity, or a weekend getaway, this property offers the perfect blend of comfort and location. There is an additional adjoining lot 17 being sold separately on MLS 20257517 “Please be advised that the amount for yearly property taxes is subject to change depending on the exemptions filed with the appraisal district”.

18. 2025-12-22
    price $115,000 650-char remark

    Show marketing remark (650 chars)

    Three adjoining deeded lots featuring a 16' x 76' Champion manufactured home with partial water views of beautiful Lake Murvaul. Enjoy the peace and quiet of this charming neighborhood while staying just minutes from convenient public lake access. Whether you’re looking for a permanent residence, investment opportunity, or a weekend getaway, this property offers the perfect blend of comfort and location. There is an additional adjoining lot 17 being sold separately on MLS 20257517 “Please be advised that the amount for yearly property taxes is subject to change depending on the exemptions filed with the appraisal district”.

19. 2025-11-03
    listed $125,000 Active 650-char remark

    Show marketing remark (650 chars)

    Three adjoining deeded lots featuring a 16' x 76' Champion manufactured home with partial water views of beautiful Lake Murvaul. Enjoy the peace and quiet of this charming neighborhood while staying just minutes from convenient public lake access. Whether you’re looking for a permanent residence, investment opportunity, or a weekend getaway, this property offers the perfect blend of comfort and location. There is an additional adjoining lot 17 being sold separately on MLS 20257517 “Please be advised that the amount for yearly property taxes is subject to change depending on the exemptions filed with the appraisal district”.

20. 2019-12-17
    soldstatus
21. 2018-08-17
    soldstatus
22. 1998-03-02
    soldstatus
23. 1998-03-02
    soldstatus
24. 1995-03-30
    soldstatus
25. 1995-03-30
    soldstatus
26. 1994-08-29
    soldstatus
27. 1994-08-29
    soldstatus
28. 1994-07-25
    soldstatus
29. 1994-07-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $706 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,830 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,124/yr (+$94/mo · 159.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,873
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,601
• − Property taxes: −$706
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,030
• − Management: −$1,030
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $1,097
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$263
• After-tax cash flow: $2,408/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gary ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820460
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $47,528
• Composite: 34.2/100
• National rank: #5269
• State rank: #410 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gary City

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1412
• US rank: #24190

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,072

Population outlook (Panola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,273 people
• By 2030: 22,845 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 21,652 · -7.0%
• By 2050: 20,107 · -13.6%
• By 2075: 15,709 · -32.5%
• By 2100: 11,013 · -52.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Russian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Panola

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.4) · D 16.7% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: -48.9pp · 2024: -66.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.4 2020: R+63.5 2016: R+63.5 2012: R+56.1 2008: R+48.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $99,990 LAAR
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $104,990 LAAR
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $115,000 LAAR
• 2025-11-03 Listed $125,000 LAAR
• 2019-12-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-08-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-03-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-03-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-03-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-03-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-08-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-08-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-07-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-07-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $706 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.