2402 Mitchell Ave · St. Joseph, MO 64507

$155,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,004 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1917 6,098 sqft lot Est $134k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.3/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable, centrally located home on a corner lot, 4 bedrooms with large closets make plentry of room for the whole family, new carpet and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout and fresh neutral paint colors. Lovely historical touches with all the modern amenities plus lots of storage space in the full basement and a detached garage. Come see this move-in ready home today!

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1917

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 6,098 square feet
• Financial info: Annual tax amount listed
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage that faces the side; One garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Bungalow floor plan; Approximately 1,565 above-grade living area; Not in a flood plain
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Composition roof; Full concrete basement
• Exterior features: Front porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms total — two on the main level and two on the second level; Primary/large bedrooms include walk-in closet and built-in features (where noted)
• Flooring: Carpet in bedrooms and areas; Luxury vinyl flooring in select areas
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with ceramic tile and tub
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans throughout

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $19 ($228/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.7% in St. Joseph — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Joseph (urban): math 28% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #241 of 324 in MO (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carden Park Elem (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #739 of 1,115 statewide, top 67%, 577 students, 100% FRL); Central High (math 28% / reading 50%, grade F, #287 of 521 statewide, top 55%, 1,728 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 53% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 70 units permitted in Buchanan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Buchanan County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $121,171 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.53%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $133,532
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2101 Penn St	0.21mi	3/1.0 (-1)	988 (-2%)	2mo	$134,900	$137	81
2215 Lafayette St	0.25mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,016 (+1%)	7mo	$124,900	$123	75
1319 S 24th St	0.05mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,132 (+13%)	6mo	$134,900	$119	66
2812 Doniphan Ave	0.52mi	3/1.0 (-1)	996 (-1%)	7mo	$134,700	$135	63
2405 Lafayette St	0.23mi	3/1.0 (-1)	900 (-10%)	11mo	$179,900	$200	58
2820 Seneca St	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,038 (+3%)	10mo	$85,000	$82	57
2627 Renick St	0.21mi	5/1.0 (+1)	1,152 (+15%)	7mo	$99,000	$86	54
2831 Penn St	0.46mi	3/1.0 (-1)	900 (-10%)	4mo	$95,000	$106	53
3006 Penn St	0.64mi	3/1.5 (-1)	955 (-5%)	12mo	$170,000	$178	45
2220 Sycamore Ct	0.62mi	3/1.0 (-1)	900 (-10%)	8mo	$119,900	$133	42
1607 S 14th St	0.66mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,134 (+13%)	1mo	$133,900	$118	40
3006 Mitchell Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,128 (+12%)	8mo	$185,000	$164	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-23,968
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-19,567
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64507

• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,212 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $730/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,188

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1616 S 25th St Saint Joseph, MO	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,300	$0.87	43d	1	0.22mi
303 S 13th St St Joseph, MO	3.0	1.5	1000	$950	$0.95	43d	1	0.97mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $155,000 Coming Soon 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Coming Soon 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Coming Soon 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Coming Soon 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Coming Soon 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Coming Soon 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $155,000 Coming Soon 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Coming Soon 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 18-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $155,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $730 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,504 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: +$774/yr (+$64/mo · 106.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,541
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$730
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,163
• − Management: −$1,163
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$2,482
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$596
• After-tax cash flow: $824/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Joseph
• NCES district ID: 2927060
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,007
• Composite: 27.99/100
• National rank: #6853
• State rank: #241 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Joseph

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Joseph, MO
• City population: 44,382
• Population (ZIP): 14,159

Population outlook (Buchanan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,041 people
• By 2030: 88,401 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 86,220 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 83,603 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 76,750 · -13.8%
• By 2100: 67,623 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 8% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Buchanan

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.0) · D 35.2% · R 63.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.2pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -28.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.0 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.49%
• Current HPI: 165.1511
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Coming Soon $155,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-08-15 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-12 Contingent — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-12 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-09 Price Changed $145,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-02 Price Changed $150,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-24 Listed $155,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1979-04-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $730 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.