7014 Marie Ln · Mechanicsville, VA 23111

$330,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,332 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1984 0.37 ac lot Est $368k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Schools +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Coming Soon! Welcome home to this charming Cape Cod nestled in the heart of Mechanicsville! Situated on a spacious . 37-acre lot, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfortable living with classic character and everyday functionality. With 2 rooms downstairs and 2 rooms upstairs it's the perfect space for everyone to stretch out. Inside, you’ll find over 1,300 square feet of living space, a cozy and inviting layout, central heating and cooling, and plenty of room for family and guests. The kitchen has been updated over the years and a new roof within the last 10 years. Hot water heater is approx. 5 yrs old. Enjoy relaxing outdoors on the covered porch (complete with a hanging swing!)

Key facts

• 0.37 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1984

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Oversized paved driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric water heater; Electric power available
• Home design: Single-story design; Center hall room arrangement; Resale property; Level topography; Zoned R2
• Construction: Brick, drywall and vinyl siding construction; Composition roof; Built (actual year recorded); Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Rear porch and wrap-around deck; Deck; Shed and outbuilding(s) for storage; Storage space; Gas grill; Partial fencing; Paved driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Updated cabinets and countertops; Dishwasher; Electric stove/oven
• Bedrooms: Primary and other bedrooms on main and second levels; One bedroom set up as an office (first level); Two additional bedrooms on second level with alcoves and ceiling fans
• Flooring: Partially carpeted
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Full baths include tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump and electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Laminate countertops; Main level primary bedroom; Bedroom on main level; Partially carpeted floors
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Laundry located in kitchen behind bi-fold doors

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-139 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $305k (7.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (25.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.1% in Mechanicsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#165 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hanover County Public School District (suburban): math 79% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #5 of 131 in VA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 447 units permitted in Hanover County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hanover County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $330k implies a 462% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $244,548 (25.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.80%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $367,632
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6423 Chenault Way	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,319 (-1%)	8mo	$350,000	$265	80
6466 Birch Tree Trce	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (-2%)	8mo	$340,000	$262	76
6490 Nells Trce	0.17mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,170 (-12%)	2mo	$350,000	$299	63
6367 Dairy Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,162 (-13%)	8mo	$316,000	$272	62
6452 Chenault Way	0.23mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,190 (-11%)	3mo	$320,000	$269	62
7097 Bonniefield Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (+9%)	5mo	$402,500	$276	60
6318 Sledds Lake Rd	0.29mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,216 (-9%)	6mo	$366,500	$301	60
6327 Draperfield Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-10%)	9mo	$340,000	$283	60
7033 Brooking Way	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,181 (-11%)	4mo	$332,500	$282	45
7077 Adaline Ln	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,512 (+14%)	9mo	$350,000	$231	45
6310 Dahlia Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,188 (-11%)	7mo	$322,475	$271	44
7035 Brooking Way	0.60mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,150 (-14%)	8mo	$335,000	$291	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-62,404
• Equity at exit: $49,204

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-66,094
• Equity at exit: $28,532

Cash invested: $92,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23111

• Home prices YoY: -14.0%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,445 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,432/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $-139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,621

Max offer price $305,487

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $48	-5% $-45	+0% $-139	+5% $-232	+10% $-326
Rent	-10% $-332	-5% $-235	+0% $-139	+5% $-42	+10% $54
Rate	-1.0pp $27	-0.5pp $-55	base $-139	+0.5pp $-224	+1.0pp $-311

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,500
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-23
   historical $330,000
2. 1984-12-01
   soldstatus $58,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,432 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,706 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: +$274/yr (+$23/mo · 11.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,346
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$2,432
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,348
• − Management: −$2,348
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$7,516
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,804
• After-tax cash flow: $139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hanover County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101830
• Math proficiency: 79% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 81% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,386
• Composite: 70.37/100
• National rank: #268
• State rank: #5 of 131 in VA

Livability — Mechanicsville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #5098

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mechanicsville, VA
• County: Hanover County · 134,767 people
• City population: 72,258
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 38,070
• Household income: $98,969
• Rent vs Own: 23.4% rent · 76.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 825.0

Population outlook (Hanover County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,687 people
• By 2030: 115,373 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 120,828 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 123,591 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 132,168 · +18.3%
• By 2100: 130,105 · +16.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hanover

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.8) · D 36.6% · R 62.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.8pp toward D · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -25.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.8 2020: R+26.8 2016: R+32.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.34%
• Current HPI: 253.858
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+461.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Coming Soon $330,000 CVRMLS
• 1984-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $58,750 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,432 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.