6041 Chad Dr · Newcastle, CA 95658

$169,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 47 Days on market

Built 1972 Est $184k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Castle City Mobile Home Park, where you can experience peaceful country living in a vibrant 55+ rent-controlled community. This 1972 double-wide home has been updated with drywall wall interiors and laminate flooring in the living room, dining room, kitchen and hall. There is newer interior and exterior paint. The kitchen and bathrooms have been updated. The bedrooms have carpet. The home is 1,440 sq. feet and features 2 bedrooms & 2 full baths. There is a formal living room, a large dining area in the kitchen, and a smaller dining area or den to the left of the front door. There is a pantry, an L-shaped island and updated cabinets in the kitchen. The refrigerator, washer a

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• Updated bathrooms
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED DRYWALL WALL INTERIORS
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• FORMAL LIVING ROOM
• LARGE DINING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community; Property is not land-lease

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Attached covered parking; No separate garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas connected; Individual electric meter and individual gas meter; Cable and internet available
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide) located in a mobile home park; Updated/remodeled; Built in 1972
• Construction: Metal roof; Aluminum skirting
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Backyard and front yard landscaping; Auto sprinkler front and rear; Garden; Court; Shed(s); Patio awning, carport awning, and porch awning

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas range; Free-standing refrigerator; Hood over range; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Pantry closet; Kitchen island; Breakfast area; Plumbed for ice maker
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (including master bedroom)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central cooling
• Interior features: Formal entry; Dual-pane full windows; Porch steps and covered porch; Covered patio
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room with washer and dryer included; Electric and gas hook-up

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $911 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 1.6% in Newcastle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#792 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Placer Union High (suburban): math 39% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #98 of 517 in CA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 3,535 units permitted in Placer County in 2024 (689 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Placer County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,930 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.79%
• DSCR: 2.10
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $184,320
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6374 Brodie Dr	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,472 (+2%)	2mo	$169,500	$115	80
1911 Hillcrest Dr #067	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	6mo	$147,500	$102	76
6536 Crest Dr #57	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	13mo	$184,792	$128	74
1962 Hillcrest Dr	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	15mo	$186,000	$129	73
6503 Lake Dr	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	19mo	$225,000	$156	72
6060 Nob Hl	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	24mo	$160,000	$119	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $30,728
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $101,814
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95658

• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,716 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$211 /mo · $2,535/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$570
• Net cashflow: $911

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,563

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,028	-5% $970	+0% $911	+5% $853	+10% $794
Rent	-10% $697	-5% $804	+0% $911	+5% $1,018	+10% $1,126
Rate	-1.0pp $996	-0.5pp $954	base $911	+0.5pp $867	+1.0pp $823

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 29 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 41 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,590
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$2,535
• − Insurance: −$1,642
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,607
• − Management: −$2,607
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $8,815
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,116
• After-tax cash flow: $8,818/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Placer Union High
• NCES district ID: 0630750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,119
• Composite: 49.04/100
• National rank: #2060
• State rank: #98 of 517 in CA

Livability — Newcastle

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #792
• US rank: #22660

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newcastle, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,197

Population outlook (Placer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 422,709 people
• By 2030: 444,249 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 480,192 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 506,390 · +19.8%
• By 2075: 550,219 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 547,760 · +29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 4% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Placer

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.5) · D 44.3% · R 52.8% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: -11.3pp · 2024: -8.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.5 2020: R+6.7 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+20.1 2008: R+11.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -292.40%
• Current HPI: 288.3247
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B