109 Mill St · Willard, MO 65781

$189,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,380 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1917 0.34 ac lot $138/sqft · at area comps Est $196k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Super cute cottage home with lots of updates located in a great location of Willard. It features: 2 bedrooms, 1 full bath, 2 living areas, 1 car carport. The main living area has gas fireplace and tall ceilings. Nice kitchen with newer cabinets, counter tops, white appliances (refrigerator included) and tile floor. Large second living area with wall gas heater. Laundry room with tile floor, storage cabinets and folding counter space. The updated full bath has new sink/vanity, walk-in shower and tile floor. Nice hardwood floors in main living room, and both bedrooms. Laminate wood floor in second living area. Enjoy the beautifully landscaped yard from the covered front porch or the large bac

Key facts

• Tile floor
• Newer cabinets
• White appliances

Tags

• GAS FIREPLACE
• TALL CEILINGS
• NEWER CABINETS
• WHITE APPLIANCES
• TILE FLOOR
• WALL GAS HEATER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Driveway; On-street parking; 1-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Metal/steel siding with stone accents; Composition roof; Block foundation; Built construction details include metal siding and stone
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Covered deck; Rain gutters; Shed(s); Few trees; Level lot; Asphalt road frontage; Public maintained road; City street frontage; Lot approximately 100 x 150

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Free-standing gas oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (forced air, natural gas); Exhaust fan; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High ceilings; Laminate counters; High speed internet access; Insulated double-pane windows with blinds and drapes; Gas fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry on main level; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $265 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (7.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.5% in Willard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#79 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Willard R-II (rural): math 41% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #83 of 324 in MO (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willard Middle (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D+, #105 of 391 statewide, top 27%, 741 students, 32% FRL); Willard High (math 37% / reading 60%, grade D, #147 of 521 statewide, top 29%, 1,381 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,364 (7.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.99%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $196,134
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -3.18%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
109 Mill St	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,380 (0%)	0mo	$189,900	$138	100
108 W Robberson St	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,276 (-8%)	2mo	$199,900	$157	67
206 S Howard St	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,276 (-8%)	5mo	$199,900	$157	63
314 S Main St	0.37mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,464 (+6%)	1mo	$227,000	$155	61
210 Cherry Ln	0.45mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,362 (-1%)	11mo	$229,000	$168	60
208 E New Melville Rd	0.72mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,378 (-0%)	8mo	$189,900	$138	53
112 Grand Prairie Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,280 (-7%)	1mo	$229,900	$180	48
504 S Gauge St	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,488 (+8%)	10mo	$279,900	$188	42
502 S Gauge St	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,220 (-12%)	11mo	$225,000	$184	41
127 Grand Prairie Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,294 (-6%)	11mo	$200,000	$155	38
408 S Main St	0.44mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,586 (+15%)	8mo	$259,000	$163	35
119 N Grand Prairie Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,219 (-12%)	11mo	$219,900	$180	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-13,966
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $9,240
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65781

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,764 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $637/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,428

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
800 Hoffman Hills Blvd Willard, MO	3.0	2.0	1551	$1,925	$1.24	13d	1	1.35mi
800 Hoffman Hills Blvd Willard, MO	3.0	2.0	1551	$1,725	$1.11	21d	1	1.35mi
803 Lambert Cir Willard, MO	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,650	$1.20	13d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 797-char remark
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $189,900 Active 797-char remark
3. 2012-10-05
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $637 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,842 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,205/yr (+$100/mo · 189.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,164
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$637
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,693
• − Management: −$1,693
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable income: $30
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$7
• After-tax cash flow: $3,176/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willard R-II
• NCES district ID: 2932010
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,200
• Composite: 39.04/100
• National rank: #4063
• State rank: #83 of 324 in MO

Livability — Willard

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #5258

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willard, MO
• Population (ZIP): 9,160

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.06%
• Current HPI: 214.9498
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2026-05-11 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-05-07 Listed $189,900 SOMO
• 2012-10-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $637 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.