430 W Church St · Harrisburg, IL 62946

$50,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,259 sqft · SingleFamily · 181 Days on market

Built 1930 8,712 sqft lot $40/sqft · 9% above area Est $46k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Ranch home with 2 bedrooms and 1 bath enclosed front porch and enclosed back porch in nice neighborhood. Detached 2 car garage with concrete floor. Yard is fenced. The central air unit is there but needs repaired. Currently using window unit. Additional 12' x 12' storage building.

Key facts

• Enclosed back porch
• Fenced yard
• Storage building

Tags

• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• ENCLOSED BACK PORCH
• DETACHED 2 CAR GARAGE
• FENCED YARD
• STORAGE BUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $506 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.4% vs local median 5.5% in Harrisburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#309 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, commute F, employment F.
• Harrisburg CUSD 3 (town): math 5% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #521 of 620 in IL (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saline County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.35%
• DSCR: 2.93
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $45,988
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: 8.72%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
430 W Church St	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,259 (0%)	0mo	$45,000	$36	100
213 N Granger St	0.26mi	2/1.0	1,290 (+2%)	3mo	$35,000	$27	81
500 W Sloan St	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,300 (+3%)	4mo	$35,000	$27	68
206 W Homer Ave	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,236 (-2%)	4mo	$114,000	$92	68
19 S Webster St	0.24mi	2/1.0	1,151 (-9%)	8mo	$25,000	$22	68
215 S Jackson St	0.35mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,288 (+2%)	6mo	$72,000	$56	68
317 S Webster St	0.34mi	2/1.0	1,120 (-11%)	2mo	$20,000	$18	64
17 W Homer St	0.54mi	2/1.0	1,170 (-7%)	7mo	$33,000	$28	57
609 S Ledford St	0.44mi	2/1.0	1,075 (-15%)	2mo	$15,500	$14	53
103 W Park St	0.65mi	2/3.0	1,200 (-5%)	3mo	$139,500	$116	52
107 W Lincoln St	0.38mi	2/1.0	1,444 (+15%)	11mo	$78,000	$54	48
411 N Main St	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+11%)	11mo	$27,000	$19	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $24,126
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.47×
• Total profit: $62,552
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62946

• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,078 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $506

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $540	-5% $523	+0% $506	+5% $488	+10% $471
Rent	-10% $421	-5% $463	+0% $506	+5% $548	+10% $591
Rate	-1.0pp $531	-0.5pp $518	base $506	+0.5pp $493	+1.0pp $480

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 181 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 180 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 178 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $50,000 Active 177 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 174 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 173 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $50,000 Active 172 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $50,000 Active 171 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $50,000 Active 168 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 167 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 166 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 165 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 164 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    price $50,000
15. 2026-01-06
    historical
16. 2025-12-18
    price
17. 2025-10-24
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,931
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,034
• − Management: −$1,034
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $5,607
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,346
• After-tax cash flow: $4,723/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrisburg CUSD 3
• NCES district ID: 1718270
• Math proficiency: 5% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $38,717
• Composite: 12.61/100
• National rank: #9613
• State rank: #521 of 620 in IL

Livability — Harrisburg

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #309
• US rank: #6073

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harrisburg, IL
• Population (ZIP): 11,465

Population outlook (Saline County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,915 people
• By 2030: 23,262 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 21,775 · -8.9%
• By 2050: 20,098 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 15,234 · -36.3%
• By 2100: 10,302 · -56.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Saline

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.0) · D 24.8% · R 73.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.1pp toward R · 2008: -8.9pp · 2024: -49.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.0 2020: R+47.9 2016: R+50.7 2012: R+29.0 2008: R+8.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.20%
• Current HPI: 102.6962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $50,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-24 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid