3516 Beutel Rd · Waco, TX 76655

$319,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,826 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 114 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 0.26 ac lot Garage $175/sqft · 15% below area Est $381k · 16% under $38/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming four bedroom, three bath home is known for its intelligent use of space and now features an even more open living area. The large kitchen granite-topped island opens up to your living room to provide a cozy flow throughout the home. Your dining area features the most charming window you'll ever see. Featuring large walk-in closets, luxury flooring, and volume ceilings - this beauty certainly delivers when it comes to affordable luxury. Additional options include: Additional cabinetry in secondary bathroom, additional LED recessed lighting, and pendant lighting.

Key facts

• Modern finishes
• Outdoor space
• Functional layout

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• MODERN FINISHES
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $320k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-390 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (21.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• Midway ISD (other): math 61% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #56 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Park Hill El (611 students, 43% FRL); Midway Middle (math 58% / reading 58%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 1,075 students, 47% FRL); Midway H S (math 66% / reading 67%, grade B, #186 of 1,632 statewide, top 11%, 2,648 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: 406 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 140d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,973 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.23%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $381,009
• List price: $319,900
• Delta: -16.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
825 Day Star Dr	2.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,857 (+2%)	8mo	$374,500	$202	46
925 Northern Dancer Dr	2.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,892 (+4%)	9mo	$448,900	$237	42
1321 Speck Ln	2.23mi	4/3.0	2,280 (+25%)	1mo	$499,990	$219	39
162 Warren Rd	1.95mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,625 (-11%)	0mo	$329,900	$203	38
841 Day Star Dr	2.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,025 (+11%)	1mo	$474,000	$234	37
1316 Promised Land Rd	2.23mi	4/3.0	2,305 (+26%)	4mo	$509,900	$221	36
2304 Paddington Way	0.90mi	4/3.0	2,290 (+25%)	6mo	$585,000	$255	35
1109 Dillinger Rd	2.13mi	4/2.0	2,128 (+16%)	2mo	$444,752	$209	34
900 Day Star Dr	2.21mi	4/2.5	2,085 (+14%)	7mo	$462,900	$222	34
1312 Promised Land	2.22mi	4/2.5	2,138 (+17%)	9mo	$446,006	$209	30
550 Jon St	2.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,049 (+12%)	11mo	$342,900	$167	26
2977 Old Lorena Rd	1.93mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,317 (-28%)	8mo	$292,500	$222	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-76,512
• Equity at exit: $47,698

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-97,906
• Equity at exit: $27,659

Cash invested: $89,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 108 active · 61 under contract
• Median asking: $319,250 ($185/sqft)
• Median days on market: 74 d
• This list price: 52% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76655

• Home prices YoY: -31.3%
• Active inventory: 406
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,589 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$586 /mo · $7,035/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $-390

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,082

Max offer price $250,973

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-209	-5% $-300	+0% $-390	+5% $-481	+10% $-571
Rent	-10% $-595	-5% $-492	+0% $-390	+5% $-288	+10% $-186
Rate	-1.0pp $-229	-0.5pp $-309	base $-390	+0.5pp $-473	+1.0pp $-557

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,975
• Closing costs: $9,597
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3217 Jackal Dr Lorena, TX	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,400	$1.30	116d	1	0.14mi
3000 Risinger Rd Lorena, TX	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,300	$1.25	6d	1	0.43mi
3225 Marston Rd Lorena, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,800	$1.51	139d	1	0.45mi
3128 Brosnan Rd Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1717	$2,350	$1.37	139d	1	0.52mi
2813 Gilchrist Dr Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1529	$2,200	$1.44	139d	1	0.53mi
2809 Keathley Dr Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,100	$1.34	139d	1	0.55mi
3117 Sherco Rd Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$2,000	$1.36	139d	1	0.61mi
2701 Skinner Dr Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1573	$2,400	$1.53	139d	1	0.65mi
3012 Teasdale Rd Lorena, TX	4.0	2.0	1873	$2,500	$1.33	0d	1	0.77mi
10312 Sierra West Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,300	$1.47	116d	1	0.83mi
12516 Tarres Ct Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,300	$1.53	0d	1	0.83mi
917 Vail Highlands Hewitt, TX	3.0	2.0	1333	$2,300	$1.73	6d	1	1.44mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot less than 0.5 acre (approx. 0.255 acres)Subdivision: Park Mdws South Ph I
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with annual fee (management fees included)HOA managed by Berkshire Hathaway

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spacesConcrete parking
• Utilities: City waterCity sewerNot in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence (residential)One storyProperty is attached
• Construction: Built in 2023Brick and siding exteriorComposition/shingle roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Wood fencingCovered patio

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 (approx. 13 x 16)Total of 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanityGranite countersKitchen islandPantryOne living areaOne dining areaTwo total rooms listed
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer areaElectric dryer hookupUtility room

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $319,900 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $319,900 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $319,900 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $319,900 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-09-17
   days on market $319,900 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $319,900 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $319,900 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-09-14
   days on market $319,900 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-09-13
   days on market $319,900 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-09-12
    days on market $319,900 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $319,900 Active 101 DOM
12. 2026-09-05
    days on market $325,000 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-09-04
    days on market $325,000 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-09-03
    days on market $325,000 Active 93 DOM
15. 2026-09-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 92 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 89 DOM
17. 2026-08-29
    days on market $325,000 Active 88 DOM
18. 2026-08-28
    days on market $325,000 Active 87 DOM
19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $325,000 Active 86 DOM
20. 2026-08-26
    days on market $325,000 Active 85 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $325,000 Active 84 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $325,000 Active 83 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $325,000 Active 82 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $325,000 Active 81 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $325,000 Active 80 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $325,000 Active 79 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $325,000 Active 78 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $325,000 Active 77 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $325,000 Active 76 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $325,000 Active 75 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $325,000 Active 74 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $325,000 Active 73 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $325,000 Active 72 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $325,000 Active 71 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    price $325,000 Active 70 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $329,900 Active 70 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $329,900 Active 69 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $329,900 Active 68 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $329,900 Active 67 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $329,900 Active 66 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $329,900 Active 65 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $329,900 Active 64 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $329,900 Active 63 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $329,900 Active 62 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $329,900 Active 59 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $329,900 Active 58 DOM
47. 2026-07-29
    days on market $329,900 Active 57 DOM
48. 2026-07-27
    days on market $329,900 Active 55 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $329,900 Active 54 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $329,900 Active 52 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,035 · $586/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,035 · $586/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,063
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,919
• − Property taxes: −$7,035
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,485
• − Management: −$2,485
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$9,306
• Taxable loss: −$10,224
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,454
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,229/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,130–$27,390 screening

This move-in ready home offers a good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good kitchen, good bathrooms, good exterior, good flooring, good interior walls/paint, good roof, good windows, good foundation/structure, good HVAC/mechanicals, and good landscaping/curb appeal. The home is in good condition and ready for a new owner.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior trim — enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both replace blinds with energy-efficient windows — improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑
• Both install smart home devices — increases home's marketability and convenience ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 62/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Park Hill El Middle Midway Middle B TX #197/1,662 Nat'l #2,084/14,009 High Midway H S B TX #186/1,632 Nat'l #2,657/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midway ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830640
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $67,076
• Composite: 52.32/100
• National rank: #1593
• State rank: #56 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 264,191 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,603
• Household income: $99,917
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 3% of renters

---

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 2%

---

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.10%
• Current HPI: 230.4333
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot less than 0.5 acre (approx. 0.255 acres)Subdivision: Park Mdws South Ph I
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with annual fee (management fees included)HOA managed by Berkshire Hathaway

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spacesConcrete parking
• Utilities: City waterCity sewerNot in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence (residential)One storyProperty is attached
• Construction: Built in 2023Brick and siding exteriorComposition/shingle roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Wood fencingCovered patio

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeMicrowave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 (approx. 13 x 16)Total of 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanityGranite countersKitchen islandPantryOne living areaOne dining areaTwo total rooms listed
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer areaElectric dryer hookupUtility room

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $335,000 NTREIS
• 2023-12-19 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-08-30 Listed $334,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+127.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,035 · -3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.