25 Oak Dr · Hamlin, NY 14464

$132,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 261 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $99/sqft · 233% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gorgeous 3-Bedroom!

Key facts

• Built 2025
• Listed 261 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $133k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $101 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (2.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $117k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.1% in Hamlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#557 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Brockport Central School District (town): math 45% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #369 of 590 in NY (top 62%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ginther Elementary School (535 students, 44% FRL); A D Oliver Middle School (math 27% / reading 58%, grade D-, #373 of 729 statewide, top 52%, 685 students, 48% FRL); Brockport High School (math 97% / reading 77%, grade A, #311 of 1,100 statewide, top 30%, 946 students, 43% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 65% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Brockport Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $919 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 261 days — a 12% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $116,952 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 261 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.27%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $39,899
• List price: $132,900
• Delta: 233.09%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
97 Locust Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,252 (-7%)	8mo	$64,000	$51	73
5 Dogwood Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+4%)	22mo	$69,000	$49	69
5 Oak Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-10%)	20mo	$107,000	$88	63
306 Sandy Brook Dr	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,188 (-12%)	13mo	$40,000	$34	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-15,063
• Equity at exit: $19,816

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-4,729
• Equity at exit: $11,491

Cash invested: $37,212 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14464

• Home prices YoY: -15.0%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,291 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$697
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$166 /mo · $1,994/yr
• Insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,163

Max offer price $132,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $193	-5% $147	+0% $101	+5% $55	+10% $9
Rent	-10% $-1	-5% $50	+0% $101	+5% $152	+10% $203
Rate	-1.0pp $168	-0.5pp $135	base $101	+0.5pp $67	+1.0pp $32

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,225
• Closing costs: $3,987
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $132,900 Active 261 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $132,900 Active 260 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $132,900 Active 259 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $132,900 Active 258 DOM
5. 2026-04-18
   status Active 19-char remark

   Show marketing remark (19 chars)

   Gorgeous 3-Bedroom!

6. 2026-04-17
   historical 19-char remark

   Show marketing remark (19 chars)

   Gorgeous 3-Bedroom!

7. 2026-03-06
   status Active 19-char remark

   Show marketing remark (19 chars)

   Gorgeous 3-Bedroom!

8. 2026-03-06
   historical 19-char remark

   Show marketing remark (19 chars)

   Gorgeous 3-Bedroom!

9. 2026-02-26
   status Active 19-char remark

   Show marketing remark (19 chars)

   Gorgeous 3-Bedroom!

10. 2026-02-26
    historical 19-char remark

    Show marketing remark (19 chars)

    Gorgeous 3-Bedroom!

11. 2026-02-06
    status Active 19-char remark

    Show marketing remark (19 chars)

    Gorgeous 3-Bedroom!

12. 2026-02-06
    historical 19-char remark

    Show marketing remark (19 chars)

    Gorgeous 3-Bedroom!

13. 2026-01-28
    status Active 19-char remark

    Show marketing remark (19 chars)

    Gorgeous 3-Bedroom!

14. 2026-01-28
    historical 19-char remark

    Show marketing remark (19 chars)

    Gorgeous 3-Bedroom!

15. 2026-01-03
    status Active 19-char remark

    Show marketing remark (19 chars)

    Gorgeous 3-Bedroom!

16. 2026-01-03
    historical 19-char remark

    Show marketing remark (19 chars)

    Gorgeous 3-Bedroom!

17. 2025-11-04
    status Active 19-char remark

    Show marketing remark (19 chars)

    Gorgeous 3-Bedroom!

18. 2025-11-04
    price $132,900 19-char remark

    Show marketing remark (19 chars)

    Gorgeous 3-Bedroom!

19. 2025-11-04
    historical 19-char remark

    Show marketing remark (19 chars)

    Gorgeous 3-Bedroom!

20. 2025-11-03
    price $134,900 19-char remark

    Show marketing remark (19 chars)

    Gorgeous 3-Bedroom!

21. 2025-09-26
    status Active 19-char remark

    Show marketing remark (19 chars)

    Gorgeous 3-Bedroom!

22. 2025-09-26
    historical 19-char remark

    Show marketing remark (19 chars)

    Gorgeous 3-Bedroom!

23. 2025-09-10
    listed $132,900 Active 19-char remark

    Show marketing remark (19 chars)

    Gorgeous 3-Bedroom!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,490
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,444
• − Property taxes: −$1,994
• − Insurance: −$664
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,239
• − Management: −$1,239
• − Depreciation: −$3,866
• Taxable loss: −$957
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$230
• After-tax cash flow: $1,445/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It has potential for further value increases through minor exterior updates and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding a small patio or deck — This can increase the living space and appeal to potential buyers/renters.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and increase the home's value.
• Both Adding a smart home system — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more attractive and energy-efficient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a small patio or deck — This can increase the living space and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more attractive and energy-efficient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brockport Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3605580
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,571
• Composite: 43.28/100
• National rank: #3044
• State rank: #369 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hamlin

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #557
• US rank: #10030

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living A Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hamlin, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,725

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.89%
• Current HPI: 248.1985
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-17 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-06 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-06 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-02-26 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-02-26 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-02-06 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-02-06 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-28 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-28 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-03 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-03 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $132,900 Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $134,900 Zillow
• 2025-09-26 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-09-26 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-09-10 Listed $132,900 Zillow