7903 Spivey Rd · Highlands, TX 77562

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,312 sqft · Manufactured public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2018 0.44 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Perfect opportunity for an investor! Lovely mobile home and large lot with mature trees and a long-term tenant. No HOA. It's set up for your success.

Key facts

• Large lot
• No hoa
• Mature trees

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• MATURE TREES
• NO HOA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (2 car spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2018; Single-story (all main rooms on the first floor)
• Construction: Block foundation; Composition roof; Construction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 15 x 14); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 12); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 12)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas log fireplace (1 total)
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer connections (detail not specified)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $398 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 5.2% in Highlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#738 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Highlands J H (math 46% / reading 37%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 994 students, 82% FRL); Goose Creek Memorial (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #924 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,223 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,750 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.36%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,052
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $33,652
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77562

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,820 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$191 /mo · $2,296/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $398

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,317

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $483	-5% $440	+0% $398	+5% $355	+10% $313
Rent	-10% $254	-5% $326	+0% $398	+5% $470	+10% $541
Rate	-1.0pp $473	-0.5pp $436	base $398	+0.5pp $359	+1.0pp $319

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
508 Julie Ln Highlands, TX	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,750	$1.37	44d	1	0.64mi
7006 Orchid St Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1620	$1,766	$1.09	6d	1	0.78mi
2515 Harris St Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1104	$2,000	$1.81	44d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $150,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    remarks 149-char remark
11. 2026-06-03
    listed $150,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,296 · $191/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$449/yr (+$37/mo · 19.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,845
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,296
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,748
• − Management: −$1,748
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $2,538
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$609
• After-tax cash flow: $4,163/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Highlands

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #738
• US rank: #13697

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Highlands, TX
• City population: 9,805
• Population (ZIP): 9,805

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 19% Black 7% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 29% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.57%
• Current HPI: 303.5126
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,296 · +12.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.