12 Sherrill Ln · New Hartford, NY 13413

$179,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,452 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1949 8,800 sqft lot Est $245k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just off of Oxford road on the circle that is Sherrill Lane sits this classic cape with spacious family room addition! There are hardwood floors through much of the house and check this list of updates done over last several years: 1 . 5 recently renovated bathrooms, roof, heating, electrical panel, many windows and doors, garage door, insulation, siding, dishwasher and the driveway was also recently paved. Full, dry basement with workshop. Perennials adorn the pretty lot with private rear yard and storage shed. Don't wait!

Key facts

• 8,800 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1949

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $874 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $180k).
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 3.8% in New Hartford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#157 in NY, #2,420 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• New Hartford Central School District (suburban): math 65% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #128 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $124k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $179,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.88%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $245,388
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Sherrill Ln	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,452 (0%)	0mo	$205,000	$141	98
5 Bonnie Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,359 (-6%)	8mo	$285,000	$210	72
58 Sunnyside Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-1%)	9mo	$265,000	$184	69
142 Farmington Rd	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,428 (-2%)	2mo	$295,500	$207	65
54 Hartford Ter	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,352 (-7%)	4mo	$100,000	$74	57
8 Janet	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,245 (-14%)	0mo	$274,000	$220	53
2803 Ogden Pl	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,568 (+8%)	2mo	$265,000	$169	51
5 Park St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	8mo	$185,000	$138	49
9 Terrace Hill Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,616 (+11%)	5mo	$225,000	$139	49
23 Beechwood Rd	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,237 (-15%)	8mo	$285,000	$230	47
63 Higby Rd	0.64mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,328 (-8%)	9mo	$201,000	$151	42
11 Brookline Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,653 (+14%)	8mo	$226,600	$137	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $26,756
• Equity at exit: $26,764

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $95,623
• Equity at exit: $15,520

Cash invested: $50,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13413

• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,897 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$941
• Tax from tax record: −$398 /mo · $4,781/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$608
• Net cashflow: $874

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,791

Max offer price $179,500

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $976	-5% $925	+0% $874	+5% $824	+10% $773
Rent	-10% $646	-5% $760	+0% $874	+5% $989	+10% $1,103
Rate	-1.0pp $965	-0.5pp $920	base $874	+0.5pp $828	+1.0pp $781

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,875
• Closing costs: $5,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11 Sanger Ave New Hartford, NY	3.0	2.5	1852	$3,750	$2.02	45d	1	0.47mi
225 Thieme Pl Utica, NY	3.0	2.0	1872	$2,150	$1.15	45d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   listed $179,500 Active
3. 2018-11-20
   soldstatus $123,500 530-char remark

   Show marketing remark (530 chars)

   Just off of Oxford road on the circle that is Sherrill Lane sits this classic cape with spacious family room addition! There are hardwood floors through much of the house and check this list of updates done over last several years: 1 . 5 recently renovated bathrooms, roof, heating, electrical panel, many windows and doors, garage door, insulation, siding, dishwasher and the driveway was also recently paved. Full, dry basement with workshop. Perennials adorn the pretty lot with private rear yard and storage shed. Don't wait!

4. 2018-11-20
   soldstatus $123,500

   Show marketing remark (530 chars)

   Just off of Oxford road on the circle that is Sherrill Lane sits this classic cape with spacious family room addition! There are hardwood floors through much of the house and check this list of updates done over last several years: 1 . 5 recently renovated bathrooms, roof, heating, electrical panel, many windows and doors, garage door, insulation, siding, dishwasher and the driveway was also recently paved. Full, dry basement with workshop. Perennials adorn the pretty lot with private rear yard and storage shed. Don't wait!

5. 2018-10-25
   listed $119,900 530-char remark

   Show marketing remark (530 chars)

   Just off of Oxford road on the circle that is Sherrill Lane sits this classic cape with spacious family room addition! There are hardwood floors through much of the house and check this list of updates done over last several years: 1 . 5 recently renovated bathrooms, roof, heating, electrical panel, many windows and doors, garage door, insulation, siding, dishwasher and the driveway was also recently paved. Full, dry basement with workshop. Perennials adorn the pretty lot with private rear yard and storage shed. Don't wait!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,781 · $398/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,781 · $398/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,768
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,055
• − Property taxes: −$4,781
• − Insurance: −$898
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,781
• − Management: −$2,781
• − Depreciation: −$5,222
• Taxable income: $8,251
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,980
• After-tax cash flow: $8,513/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Hartford Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620370
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,028
• Composite: 61.37/100
• National rank: #769
• State rank: #128 of 590 in NY

Livability — New Hartford

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #157
• US rank: #2420

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Oneida County · 89,710 people
• City population: 16,742
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,742
• Household income: $95,261
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 395.0

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 4% Subsaharan African 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Vietnam, China, Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -210.17%
• Current HPI: 295.4235
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+49.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $179,500 CNYIS
• 2018-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $123,500 Public Records
• 2018-11-20 Sold (MLS) $123,500 CNYIS
• 2018-10-25 Listed $119,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+24.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,781 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.