321 Clay St Spc 82 · Ashland, OR 97520

$165,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Land public records · 45 Days on market

Built 2007 $139/sqft · 59% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom 2 bath double wide manufactured home with cute gazebo in back.

Key facts

• Raised beds
• Charming paver patio
• Walking paths

Tags

• ANGLED KITCHEN ISLAND
• FENCED BACKYARD RETREAT
• RAISED BEDS
• CHARMING PAVER PATIO
• WALKING PATHS
• SCENIC DUCK PONDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $780
• HOA & community: Community features include park and trails; CC&Rs apply

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Driveway; Asphalt parking; No garage
• Security: No audio or video surveillance on premises
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Mobile home (double wide) located in a park; One story; Built in 2007; Vinyl skirting; May remain in park
• Construction: Built in 2007; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Composition roof; Double wide manufactured home by Skyline
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Double-pane windows with vinyl frames; Smoke detector(s); Shed(s); Level lot; Sprinkler timer(s); Paved road frontage with shared access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Water purifier
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary on main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump (heating and cooling); Electric forced-air heating
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Laminate countertops; Linen closet; Primary bedroom on main level; Shower/tub combo; Solar tube(s); Vaulted ceilings; Accessible bedroom, closets, hallways, and kitchen with grip-accessible features
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $694 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 2.1% in Ashland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#42 in OR, #1,019 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Ashland SD 5 (suburban): math 59% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #5 of 183 in OR (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bellview Elementary School (260 students, 38% FRL); Ashland Middle School (530 students, 34% FRL); Ashland High School (924 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 368 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $165k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.02%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $103,556
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: 59.33%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $14,569
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $58,087
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97520

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 368
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,182 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,156/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $694

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,304

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $787	-5% $740	+0% $694	+5% $647	+10% $600
Rent	-10% $521	-5% $607	+0% $694	+5% $780	+10% $866
Rate	-1.0pp $777	-0.5pp $736	base $694	+0.5pp $651	+1.0pp $607

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
295 Tolman Creek Rd Ashland, OR	2.0	2.0	988	$1,995	$2.02	15d	1	0.32mi
706 Normal Ave Ashland, OR	2.0	1.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	15d	1	0.45mi
706 Normal Ave Ashland, OR	2.0	1.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	45d	1	0.45mi
732 Normal Ave Unit 732 Ashland, OR	2.0	2.5	1111	$1,895	$1.71	15d	1	0.46mi
791 Faith Ave Ashland, OR	3.0	2.0	1420	$2,600	$1.83	22d	1	0.49mi
826 Park St Unit 826 Ashland, OR	2.0	2.5	1234	$1,995	$1.62	22d	1	0.55mi
2976 Grizzly Dr Ashland, OR	3.0	2.0	1354	$2,350	$1.74	22d	1	0.57mi
2080 Siskiyou Blvd Ashland, OR	2.0	1.0	882	$1,500	$1.70	22d	1	0.66mi
2370 Siskiyou Blvd Ashland, OR	2.0	2.5	1252	$1,995	$1.59	15d	1	0.85mi
77 California St Unit 5 Ashland, OR	2.0	1.0	1025	$1,150	$1.12	45d	1	0.93mi
93 California St Ashland, OR	3.0	1.0	1132	$2,095	$1.85	22d	1	0.94mi
102 Garfield St Apt 20 Ashland, OR	2.0	1.0	828	$1,150	$1.39	45d	1	0.96mi
139 N Wightman St Ashland, OR	2.0	2.0	1214	$2,250	$1.85	45d	1	0.98mi
854 Twin Pines Cir #12 Ashland, OR	2.0	1.0	896	$1,700	$1.90	15d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $165,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $165,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 24 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 23 DOM
19. 2026-05-07
    listed $170,000 Active 1042-char remark
20. 2013-06-21
    soldstatus $85,000 72-char remark

    Show marketing remark (72 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath double wide manufactured home with cute gazebo in back.

21. 2013-06-21
    listed $85,000 72-char remark

    Show marketing remark (72 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath double wide manufactured home with cute gazebo in back.

22. 2008-05-01
    soldstatus $80,000

    Show marketing remark (473 chars)

    Spacious, almost brand new home in attractive, conveniently located Ashland park. Being sold below value. Has double insulation, glass-top stove/microwave. Vaulted ceilings, palladian window, lots of upgrades. Covered parking, sheltered access to home, lovely back yard with gazebo & patio, partially fenced. Soaking tub in MBR-even a lovely view of Siskiyous through palladian window. Totally complies with park requirements. An honest to goodness must-see and snag!

23. 2008-02-05
    listed $79,000

    Show marketing remark (473 chars)

    Spacious, almost brand new home in attractive, conveniently located Ashland park. Being sold below value. Has double insulation, glass-top stove/microwave. Vaulted ceilings, palladian window, lots of upgrades. Covered parking, sheltered access to home, lovely back yard with gazebo & patio, partially fenced. Soaking tub in MBR-even a lovely view of Siskiyous through palladian window. Totally complies with park requirements. An honest to goodness must-see and snag!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,156 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,600 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$444/yr (+$37/mo · 38.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,188
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,156
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,095
• − Management: −$2,095
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $5,974
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,434
• After-tax cash flow: $6,890/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ashland SD 5
• NCES district ID: 4101560
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,917
• Composite: 57.0/100
• National rank: #2358
• State rank: #5 of 183 in OR

Livability — Ashland

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #42
• US rank: #1019

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ashland, OR
• County: Jackson County · 159,661 people
• City population: 26,512
• Metro: Medford, OR
• Population (ZIP): 26,512
• Household income: $67,948
• Rent vs Own: 42.3% rent · 57.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1727.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -555.69%
• Current HPI: 231.9587
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.69%
• Metro: Medford, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+108.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $165,000 MLSCO
• 2026-05-07 Listed $170,000 MLSCO
• 2013-06-21 Listed $85,000 MLSCO
• 2013-06-21 Sold (MLS) $85,000 MLSCO
• 2008-05-01 Sold (MLS) $80,000 MLSCO
• 2008-02-05 Listed $79,000 MLSCO

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,156 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.