215 Zyra Ave · San Marcos, TX 78130

$227,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 109 Days on market

Built 2024 4,791 sqft lot Est $232k · at est. $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Pinehollow - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• THREE SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Kyndwood
• Financial info: Down payment resources available
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Quarterly HOA fee of $300; Association transfer fee: $250; Community amenities include a pool and other community features

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Water: Crystal; Sewer: Crystal; Gas: Centerpoint; Electricity: NBU; Water system and sewer system available
• Home design: Single-family property (new construction by Lennar Homes); Approximate age: 2 years; Entry level: lower level for master bedroom
• Construction: Cement fiber exterior; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Privacy fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove/Range; Dishwasher; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet and full bath; Bedroom 2: 10 x 10; Bedroom 3: 10 x 10; Bedroom 4: 11 x 10; Master bedroom dimensions: 14 x 11
• Flooring: Carpeting; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with shower only
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric and natural gas heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Breakfast bar; 1 living area; Utility room inside; Cable TV available; All bedrooms downstairs; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; Laundry on main level; Utility room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $228k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-532/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (9.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.1% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, employment F.
• San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1896 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,492 (9.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.83%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $232,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
255 Zyra Ave	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,600 (0%)	1mo	$229,999	$144	99
215 Zyra Ave	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,600 (0%)	1mo	$227,999	$142	99
271 Zyra Ave	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,600 (0%)	1mo	$230,999	$144	99
235 Zyra Ave	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,575 (-2%)	1mo	$227,999	$145	97
414 Sauvignon Pt	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,575 (-2%)	1mo	$228,999	$145	97
3103 Dispatch Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,667 (+4%)	1mo	$236,999	$142	92
3144 Dispatch Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,667 (+4%)	1mo	$250,999	$151	92
3140 Dispatch Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-8%)	0mo	$212,999	$145	82
3188 Dispatch Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-8%)	1mo	$211,999	$144	81
3164 Dispatch Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-8%)	1mo	$216,999	$147	81
239 Zyra Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-12%)	0mo	$218,999	$156	74
251 Zyra Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-12%)	1mo	$217,999	$155	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-45,730
• Equity at exit: $33,995

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-66,469
• Equity at exit: $19,713

Cash invested: $63,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78130

• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 1896
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,065 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,196
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$285 /mo · $3,420/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $-44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,121

Max offer price $221,581

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $113	-5% $34	+0% $-44	+5% $-123	+10% $-202
Rent	-10% $-207	-5% $-126	+0% $-44	+5% $37	+10% $119
Rate	-1.0pp $70	-0.5pp $14	base $-44	+0.5pp $-103	+1.0pp $-164

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,000
• Closing costs: $6,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3135 Dispatch DR New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,690	$1.15	24d	1	0.04mi
3175 Dispatch DR New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,250	$1.22	2d	1	0.04mi
3179 Dispatch DR New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,250	$1.22	2d	1	0.04mi
3188 Dispatch DR New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,700	$1.15	2d	1	0.04mi
259 Ottawa WAY New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$2,150	$0.99	2d	1	0.04mi
2452 Creek Rd Canyon Lake, TX	4.0	2.5	1952	$1,600	$0.82	8d	1	0.04mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-18
   price $227,999
3. 2026-04-14
   price $222,999
4. 2026-04-10
   price $272,999
5. 2026-04-09
   price $224,999
6. 2026-04-07
   price $264,999
7. 2026-03-20
   price $272,999
8. 2026-03-17
   price $236,999
9. 2026-03-04
   price $271,999
10. 2026-02-24
    price $270,999
11. 2026-02-10
    price $269,999
12. 2026-01-31
    price $234,999
13. 2026-01-24
    price $244,999
14. 2026-01-13
    price $249,999
15. 2026-01-07
    listed $279,999 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,779
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,771
• − Property taxes: −$3,420
• − Insurance: −$1,140
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,982
• − Management: −$1,982
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$6,633
• Taxable loss: −$4,350
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,044
• After-tax cash flow: $512/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Marcos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4838970
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $34,538
• Composite: 20.11/100
• National rank: #8644
• State rank: #731 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #1601

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 144,962
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 104,009
• Household income: $83,064
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2912.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -190.61%
• Current HPI: 173.7128
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.97%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.6% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — LERA
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $227,999 LERA
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $222,999 LERA
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $272,999 LERA
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $224,999 LERA
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $264,999 LERA
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $272,999 LERA
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $236,999 LERA
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $271,999 LERA
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $270,999 LERA
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $269,999 LERA
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $234,999 LERA
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $244,999 LERA
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $249,999 LERA
• 2026-01-07 Listed $279,999 LERA