6904 Pointer Ridge Rd · Brandermill, VA 23112

$339,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1990 10,105 sqft lot Est $342k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This cape cod home features country front porch great room large eat-in kitchen, with gas cooking, first floor bedroom and bath, two additional bedrooms and full bath round out the second floor. Exterior featurs vinyl siding, vinyl windows, large rear deck area for outdoor entertaining, two detached sheds the large one features electricity and loft area for additional storage, fenced rear yard, located on quite cul-de-sec street. Additional pictures to be added 6/6/26

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1990
• Listed 16 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story building (1 story); Resale property; R9 zoning; Located on a cul-de-sac / dead-end
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction and drywall; Composition roof; Approximate year built
• Exterior features: Front porch; Deck; Porch; Storage; Shed; Wood fencing enclosing back yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the second floor; Additional bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Bathrooms include tub & shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Laminate counters; Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $339k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-152 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $312k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (26.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (26.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.7% in Brandermill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#94 in VA, #3,055 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 495 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $339k implies a 361% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,636 (26.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.92%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $342,144
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6903 Whistlers Cove Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (+8%)	3mo	$337,500	$240	74
7018 Spring Trace Ter	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-5%)	7mo	$339,950	$276	73
13501 Buck Rub Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,359 (+5%)	4mo	$348,000	$256	69
7155 Velvet Antler Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,308 (+1%)	8mo	$328,999	$252	67
7106 Full Rack Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+10%)	11mo	$300,000	$211	65
6812 Sika Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,187 (-8%)	2mo	$340,000	$286	62
13903 Deer Thicket Ln	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (0%)	3mo	$355,000	$274	59
6924 Velvet Antler Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+4%)	2mo	$359,950	$268	58
13604 Velvet Antler Run	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,203 (-7%)	8mo	$330,000	$274	56
7401 Velvet Antler Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,214 (-6%)	10mo	$320,000	$264	55
13836 Buck Rub Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,430 (+10%)	3mo	$360,000	$252	47
7306 Full Rack Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,464 (+13%)	10mo	$322,000	$220	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-66,474
• Equity at exit: $50,546

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-77,891
• Equity at exit: $29,311

Cash invested: $94,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23112

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 495
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,486 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,366/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $-152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,679

Max offer price $312,164

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $40	-5% $-56	+0% $-152	+5% $-248	+10% $-344
Rent	-10% $-348	-5% $-250	+0% $-152	+5% $-54	+10% $45
Rate	-1.0pp $19	-0.5pp $-66	base $-152	+0.5pp $-240	+1.0pp $-329

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,750
• Closing costs: $10,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6050 Harbour Green Dr Midlothian, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$3,218	$3.39	3d	36	0.78mi
7516 Flag Tail Dr Midlothian, VA	3.0	2.0	1684	$2,395	$1.42	4d	1	1.04mi
4905 Long Shadow Dr Midlothian, VA	2.0	2.5	1346	$2,095	$1.56	21d	1	1.07mi
5200 Hunt Master Dr Midlothian, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	875	$2,199	$2.51	4d	27	1.10mi
5401 Commonwealth Centre Pkwy Midlothian, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1008	$2,137	$2.12	3d	15	1.29mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $339,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $350,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $350,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $350,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $350,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $350,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $350,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $350,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $350,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $350,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $350,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 475-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    listed $350,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,366 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,780 · $232/mo
• Expected delta: +$414/yr (+$35/mo · 17.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,836
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,989
• − Property taxes: −$2,366
• − Insurance: −$1,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,387
• − Management: −$2,387
• − Depreciation: −$9,862
• Taxable loss: −$7,849
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,884
• After-tax cash flow: $61/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Brandermill

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #94
• US rank: #3055

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• City population: 56,364
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 57,016
• Household income: $116,465
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 897.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -224.87%
• Current HPI: 277.4841
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+376.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Coming Soon $350,000 CVRMLS
• 1990-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $73,525 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,366 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.