145 Lilly Pad Cir · Millbrook, AL 36054

$229,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,670 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1998 0.30 ac lot Est $232k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This great 3 bedroom 2 full bath home in Millbrook is just what you have been looking for. This great home features built in shelving, gas fireplace and high ceilings in the spacious living area. The eat in kitchen offers functionality and space and opens to the formal dining area that could function as a home office/playroom instead. The master bedroom is large and features a large walk in closet and master bath with double vanities, stand alone shower and garden tub. This home also features a separate laundry room and exterior attached storage under the carport. The back yard offers beautiful views of the neighboring pecan orchard with horses and donkeys. Sit on the swing and enjoy the privacy of your backyard. This home also comes with a vivint security system doorbell, camera and keypad. There is also a detached storage building with additional covered storage on the side. The hvac and roof were both replaced in November 2020.

Key facts

• Updated home
• Six new windows
• Large primary suite

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• SPACIOUS OPEN LIVING AREA
• LARGE PRIMARY SUITE
• NEW LAMINATE FLOORING
• SIX NEW WINDOWS
• UPDATED FIREPLACE SURROUND

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; 1-car carport; Parking pad(s) (3)
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story; Brick construction; Ridge vents on roof; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built from brick; Ridge vent roof; Slab foundation; Home comes with a home warranty
• Exterior features: Fence (partial, privacy); Covered porch; Covered patio; Patio; Porch; Storage structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Smooth cooktop; Microwave; Disposal; Plumbed for ice maker; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms located on the first floor
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Separate shower; Garden tub/Roman tub
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Double pane windows; Garden tub/Roman tub; High ceilings; Pull-down attic stairs; Separate shower; Walk-in closet(s); Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Laundry on the first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22 ($267/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (24.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.4% in Millbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#110 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Elmore County (town): math 27% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #21 of 129 in AL (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Coosada Elementary School (930 students, 70% FRL); Millbrook Middle School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #61 of 257 statewide, top 24%, 1,185 students, 75% FRL); Stanhope Elmore High School (math 21% / reading 35%, grade F, #87 of 305 statewide, top 29%, 1,181 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 44% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 84 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 92 units permitted in Elmore County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Elmore County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $174k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,958 (24.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.42%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $232,130
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
263 Live Oaks Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,703 (+2%)	1mo	$238,000	$140	71
99 Cattail Curv	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,493 (-11%)	4mo	$201,000	$135	71
125 Cattail Curv	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,557 (-7%)	12mo	$210,000	$135	70
5270 Mona Dr	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,708 (+2%)	11mo	$190,000	$111	65
137 Mossey Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,446 (-13%)	8mo	$206,500	$143	63
157 Cattail Curv	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,433 (-14%)	5mo	$205,000	$143	62
3550 Jackson Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,621 (-3%)	3mo	$215,000	$133	61
105 Pecan Cir	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (-11%)	9mo	$234,900	$158	60
3621 Robert E Lee Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,777 (+6%)	0mo	$234,000	$132	58
163 Magnolia Loop	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,860 (+11%)	8mo	$258,000	$139	48
4211 Willowbrook Dr	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,905 (+14%)	7mo	$259,900	$136	46
115 Ginfield Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-12%)	0mo	$213,000	$145	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-26,731
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $19,397
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36054

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Rents YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,720 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $479/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,691

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $152	-5% $87	+0% $22	+5% $-303	+10% $-382
Rent	-10% $-114	-5% $-46	+0% $22	+5% $90	+10% $158
Rate	-1.0pp $138	-0.5pp $80	base $22	+0.5pp $-37	+1.0pp $-97

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
63 Lilly Pad Cir Millbrook, AL	3.0	2.0	1521	$1,700	$1.12	15d	1	0.10mi
223 S Springfield Dr Millbrook, AL	3.0	2.0	1761	$1,950	$1.11	45d	1	0.43mi
33 Jamestown Loop Millbrook, AL	2.0	2.0	1245	$1,375	$1.10	15d	1	0.51mi
5421 Shady Dr Millbrook, AL	4.0	2.0	1809	$1,800	$1.00	45d	1	0.86mi
30 Payton Ct Millbrook, AL	4.0	2.0	1764	$2,000	$1.13	15d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $229,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $229,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $229,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $229,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $229,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $229,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-05-18
   listed $229,000 Active
10. 2021-09-14
    soldstatus $174,000
11. 2021-09-13
    soldstatus $174,000 944-char remark

    Show marketing remark (944 chars)

    This great 3 bedroom 2 full bath home in Millbrook is just what you have been looking for. This great home features built in shelving, gas fireplace and high ceilings in the spacious living area. The eat in kitchen offers functionality and space and opens to the formal dining area that could function as a home office/playroom instead. The master bedroom is large and features a large walk in closet and master bath with double vanities, stand alone shower and garden tub. This home also features a separate laundry room and exterior attached storage under the carport. The back yard offers beautiful views of the neighboring pecan orchard with horses and donkeys. Sit on the swing and enjoy the privacy of your backyard. This home also comes with a vivint security system doorbell, camera and keypad. There is also a detached storage building with additional covered storage on the side. The hvac and roof were both replaced in November 2020.

12. 2021-08-12
    listed $172,900 944-char remark

    Show marketing remark (944 chars)

    This great 3 bedroom 2 full bath home in Millbrook is just what you have been looking for. This great home features built in shelving, gas fireplace and high ceilings in the spacious living area. The eat in kitchen offers functionality and space and opens to the formal dining area that could function as a home office/playroom instead. The master bedroom is large and features a large walk in closet and master bath with double vanities, stand alone shower and garden tub. This home also features a separate laundry room and exterior attached storage under the carport. The back yard offers beautiful views of the neighboring pecan orchard with horses and donkeys. Sit on the swing and enjoy the privacy of your backyard. This home also comes with a vivint security system doorbell, camera and keypad. There is also a detached storage building with additional covered storage on the side. The hvac and roof were both replaced in November 2020.

13. 2020-12-15
    soldstatus $145,000
14. 2011-04-04
    soldstatus $128,500 1355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1355 chars)

    OPEN SUNDAY 2/13 FROM 2 - 4 - DON'T MISS OUT !! This large 3/2 home was custom designed by the owner & it shows! Includes custom upgrades such as an entire wall of wood cabinets and shelves along either side of the gas log fireplace. Large, open floor plan. Versatile separate dining room can be used as office, playroom, media room, whatever! Large, cheery eat-in kitchen can accommodate a big table and chairs & comes complete w/ microhood & pantry. Master bedroom suite has large walk-in closet, bath w/ garden tub AND separate shower. Double closets in other bedrooms. Recessed lighting in great room & master bedroom. Large cul-de-sac lot (room for a pool!) with privacy fenced backyard w/ patio & no back neighbors. Carport & extended driveway can accommodate 5 or 6 vehicles. Improvements in the last weeks include all new exterior & interior paint, 2-inch blinds, new frieze carpet throughout, tile flooring in kitchen and updated lighting. Owner added gutters. Small neighborhood just off Main Street in Millbrook, very convenient to I-65, toll road & local schools. With acceptable offer, seller will provide the following: Up to $3000 in closing costs; refrigerator, washer/dryer, an upgraded AHS warranty. The best price/sf in the neighborhood for a traditional sale! Don't miss seeing this one!

15. 2011-04-04
    soldstatus $128,500

    Show marketing remark (1355 chars)

    OPEN SUNDAY 2/13 FROM 2 - 4 - DON'T MISS OUT !! This large 3/2 home was custom designed by the owner & it shows! Includes custom upgrades such as an entire wall of wood cabinets and shelves along either side of the gas log fireplace. Large, open floor plan. Versatile separate dining room can be used as office, playroom, media room, whatever! Large, cheery eat-in kitchen can accommodate a big table and chairs & comes complete w/ microhood & pantry. Master bedroom suite has large walk-in closet, bath w/ garden tub AND separate shower. Double closets in other bedrooms. Recessed lighting in great room & master bedroom. Large cul-de-sac lot (room for a pool!) with privacy fenced backyard w/ patio & no back neighbors. Carport & extended driveway can accommodate 5 or 6 vehicles. Improvements in the last weeks include all new exterior & interior paint, 2-inch blinds, new frieze carpet throughout, tile flooring in kitchen and updated lighting. Owner added gutters. Small neighborhood just off Main Street in Millbrook, very convenient to I-65, toll road & local schools. With acceptable offer, seller will provide the following: Up to $3000 in closing costs; refrigerator, washer/dryer, an upgraded AHS warranty. The best price/sf in the neighborhood for a traditional sale! Don't miss seeing this one!

16. 2011-01-10
    listed $132,500 1355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1355 chars)

    OPEN SUNDAY 2/13 FROM 2 - 4 - DON'T MISS OUT !! This large 3/2 home was custom designed by the owner & it shows! Includes custom upgrades such as an entire wall of wood cabinets and shelves along either side of the gas log fireplace. Large, open floor plan. Versatile separate dining room can be used as office, playroom, media room, whatever! Large, cheery eat-in kitchen can accommodate a big table and chairs & comes complete w/ microhood & pantry. Master bedroom suite has large walk-in closet, bath w/ garden tub AND separate shower. Double closets in other bedrooms. Recessed lighting in great room & master bedroom. Large cul-de-sac lot (room for a pool!) with privacy fenced backyard w/ patio & no back neighbors. Carport & extended driveway can accommodate 5 or 6 vehicles. Improvements in the last weeks include all new exterior & interior paint, 2-inch blinds, new frieze carpet throughout, tile flooring in kitchen and updated lighting. Owner added gutters. Small neighborhood just off Main Street in Millbrook, very convenient to I-65, toll road & local schools. With acceptable offer, seller will provide the following: Up to $3000 in closing costs; refrigerator, washer/dryer, an upgraded AHS warranty. The best price/sf in the neighborhood for a traditional sale! Don't miss seeing this one!

17. 2010-04-28
    listed $133,000
18. 1998-03-26
    soldstatus $105,075
19. 1998-02-09
    listed $97,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $479 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $939 · $78/mo
• Expected delta: +$460/yr (+$38/mo · 95.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,635
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$479
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,651
• − Management: −$1,651
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$3,780
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$907
• After-tax cash flow: $1,174/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elmore County
• NCES district ID: 0101290
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $54,898
• Composite: 35.27/100
• National rank: #4974
• State rank: #21 of 129 in AL

Livability — Millbrook

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #110
• US rank: #12087

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Millbrook, AL
• County: Elmore County · 36,842 people
• City population: 14,600
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• Population (ZIP): 14,600
• Household income: $68,438
• Rent vs Own: 31.8% rent · 68.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 201.0

Population outlook (Elmore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,154 people
• By 2030: 86,667 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 89,014 · +4.5%
• By 2050: 90,331 · +6.1%
• By 2075: 96,096 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 95,290 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Elmore

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.1) · D 23.6% · R 75.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.1pp toward R · 2008: -50.9pp · 2024: -52.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.1 2020: R+48.2 2016: R+52.0 2012: R+48.8 2008: R+50.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.96%
• Current HPI: 151.6671
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.03%
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+133.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $229,000 MAAR
• 2021-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $174,000 Public Records
• 2021-09-13 Sold (MLS) $174,000 MAAR
• 2021-08-12 Listed $172,900 MAAR
• 2020-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2011-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $128,500 Public Records
• 2011-04-04 Sold (MLS) $128,500 MAAR
• 2011-01-10 Listed $132,500 MAAR
• 2010-04-28 Listed $133,000 MAAR
• 1998-03-26 Sold (MLS) $105,075 MAAR
• 1998-02-09 Listed $97,900 MAAR

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $479 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.