2500 W Savage -- · Show Low, AZ 85901

$169,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 940 sqft · Manufactured · 44 Days on market

Built 1973 5,849 sqft lot $180/sqft · 18% below area Est $207k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fully furnished charming 2 bedroom, plus office, 1-bath manufactured home in the desirable Fool Hollow Lake area of Show Low. This 940 sq ft single-level home offers a functional layout with a cozy living space, dining area, and included appliances, as well as a full size stack washer and dryer. Situated on a ~0.14-acre lot with mature pine trees, the property features a deck, small workshop, and RV hookup--perfect for weekend getaways or full-time living. Built in 1973 with new forced air gas heat and central air conditioning. This home provides a peaceful mountain setting just minutes from outdoor recreation, fishing, and hiking plus it is a short walk to Fools Hollow Lake. No HOA and plenty of open parking. Great opportunity for investment or retreat!

Key facts

• 5,849 sq ft lot
• Built 1973
• Listed 44 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $343 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.3% in Show Low — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#90 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Show Low Unified District (4393) (rural): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whipple Ranch Elementary School (404 students, 50% FRL); Show Low Junior High School (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #78 of 218 statewide, top 36%, 587 students, 45% FRL); Show Low High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 877 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 897 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $169k implies a 160% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,930 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.69%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $206,560
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: -18.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2500 W Savage --	0.00mi	2/1.0	940 (0%)	1mo	$153,000	$163	100
2330 W Sylvester Cir	0.16mi	2/2.0	952 (+1%)	22mo	$135,000	$142	68
2401 W Savage	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,024 (+9%)	11mo	$270,000	$264	64
2441 W Thornton Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	900 (-4%)	15mo	$215,000	$239	62
2380 W Rogers Loop Dr	0.17mi	3/1.0 (+1)	980 (+4%)	21mo	$150,000	$153	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-5,631
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $22,883
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85901

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 897
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,691 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $441/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $343

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,257

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $439	-5% $391	+0% $343	+5% $295	+10% $247
Rent	-10% $209	-5% $276	+0% $343	+5% $410	+10% $476
Rate	-1.0pp $428	-0.5pp $386	base $343	+0.5pp $299	+1.0pp $255

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-19
   price $169,000 766-char remark

   Show marketing remark (766 chars)

   Fully furnished charming 2 bedroom, plus office, 1-bath manufactured home in the desirable Fool Hollow Lake area of Show Low. This 940 sq ft single-level home offers a functional layout with a cozy living space, dining area, and included appliances, as well as a full size stack washer and dryer. Situated on a ~0.14-acre lot with mature pine trees, the property features a deck, small workshop, and RV hookup--perfect for weekend getaways or full-time living. Built in 1973 with new forced air gas heat and central air conditioning. This home provides a peaceful mountain setting just minutes from outdoor recreation, fishing, and hiking plus it is a short walk to Fools Hollow Lake. No HOA and plenty of open parking. Great opportunity for investment or retreat!

2. 2026-04-09
   listed $189,000 Active 766-char remark

   Show marketing remark (766 chars)

   Fully furnished charming 2 bedroom, plus office, 1-bath manufactured home in the desirable Fool Hollow Lake area of Show Low. This 940 sq ft single-level home offers a functional layout with a cozy living space, dining area, and included appliances, as well as a full size stack washer and dryer. Situated on a ~0.14-acre lot with mature pine trees, the property features a deck, small workshop, and RV hookup--perfect for weekend getaways or full-time living. Built in 1973 with new forced air gas heat and central air conditioning. This home provides a peaceful mountain setting just minutes from outdoor recreation, fishing, and hiking plus it is a short walk to Fools Hollow Lake. No HOA and plenty of open parking. Great opportunity for investment or retreat!

3. 2022-01-10
   soldstatus $65,000
4. 2017-08-14
   soldstatus $50,000 194-char remark

   Show marketing remark (194 chars)

   3 bedroom/2 bathroom fully furnished home and so close to Fool Hollow Lake. Great views and lots of room for friends and summer toys. It has an RV hookup and a little workshop behind the house.

5. 2017-08-14
   soldstatus $50,000

   Show marketing remark (194 chars)

   3 bedroom/2 bathroom fully furnished home and so close to Fool Hollow Lake. Great views and lots of room for friends and summer toys. It has an RV hookup and a little workshop behind the house.

6. 2015-08-21
   soldstatus $49,000
7. 2015-08-21
   soldstatus $49,000
8. 2001-12-20
   soldstatus $49,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $441 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,115 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$675/yr (+$56/mo · 153.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,297
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$441
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,624
• − Management: −$1,624
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $1,381
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$331
• After-tax cash flow: $3,783/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Show Low Unified District (4393)
• NCES district ID: 0407700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,240
• Composite: 29.9/100
• National rank: #6387
• State rank: #89 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Show Low

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #13573

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Show Low, AZ
• City population: 18,821
• Population (ZIP): 18,821

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.52%
• Current HPI: 386.3007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+244.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $169,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $189,000 ARMLS
• 2022-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2017-08-14 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2017-08-14 Sold (MLS) $50,000 WMMLS
• 2015-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 2015-08-21 Sold (MLS) $49,000 WMMLS
• 2001-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $441 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.