406 Burgundy N · Calistoga, CA 94515

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 65 Days on market

Built 2005 $185/sqft · 25% above area Est $199k · 25% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2005 home is situated on a quiet cul-de-sac in Chateau Calistoga, a 55+ community located near downtown Calistoga. The home features a large great room, kitchen with custom cabinetry, three bedrooms, two baths in 1344 square feet of living space. Outdoor patio and raised garden beds. Park offers a community clubhouse, pool & spa for your year round enjoyment.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 2005
• Listed 64 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $249k).
• Recommended offer: $234k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 2.4% in Calistoga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#448 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Calistoga Joint Unified (town): math 33% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #624 of 1,400 in CA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Calistoga Elementary (412 students, 82% FRL); Calistoga Junior/Senior High (380 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 58% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 427 units permitted in Napa County in 2024 (189 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Napa County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($234k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.90%
• DSCR: 2.15
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $199,000
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: 25.13%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
512 Sherry N #245	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,284 (-4%)	4mo	$280,000	$218	89
320 Chablis N	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+7%)	3mo	$165,000	$115	78
937 Champagne Cir S	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	2mo	$198,000	$159	74
218 Champagne Cir W	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+7%)	12mo	$130,000	$90	70
703 Claret S	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+7%)	9mo	$149,000	$103	69
33 Magnolia Dr	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+7%)	8mo	$206,000	$143	67
819 E Champagne	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+14%)	9mo	$325,000	$212	62
516 Sherry St N #244	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+14%)	13mo	$262,500	$171	60
37 Magnolia Dr	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+14%)	5mo	$200,000	$130	58
4 Camellia Dr	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+7%)	14mo	$115,000	$80	57
921 Champagne St S	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (+11%)	18mo	$168,000	$113	56
219 Champagne W	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-14%)	14mo	$170,000	$148	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $55,399
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.46×
• Total profit: $171,236
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94515

• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,747 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $551/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$787
• Net cashflow: $1,505

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,842

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,646	-5% $1,575	+0% $1,505	+5% $1,435	+10% $1,364
Rent	-10% $1,209	-5% $1,357	+0% $1,505	+5% $1,653	+10% $1,801
Rate	-1.0pp $1,630	-0.5pp $1,568	base $1,505	+0.5pp $1,440	+1.0pp $1,375

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1612 Grant St Calistoga, CA	3.0	2.0	1625	$3,795	$2.34	45d	1	0.57mi
2014 Tablerock Ct Calistoga, CA	3.0	2.0	1459	$4,095	$2.81	15d	1	0.83mi
1700 Cedar St Calistoga, CA	2.0	1.0	962	$3,200	$3.33	15d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $249,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $269,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $269,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $269,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $269,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,000 Active 44 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $269,000 Active 43 DOM
18. 2026-04-17
    listed $269,000 Active 370-char remark

    Show marketing remark (370 chars)

    This 2005 home is situated on a quiet cul-de-sac in Chateau Calistoga, a 55+ community located near downtown Calistoga. The home features a large great room, kitchen with custom cabinetry, three bedrooms, two baths in 1344 square feet of living space. Outdoor patio and raised garden beds. Park offers a community clubhouse, pool & spa for your year round enjoyment.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $551 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,892 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,341/yr (+$112/mo · 243.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,969
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$551
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,598
• − Management: −$3,598
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable income: $14,786
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,549
• After-tax cash flow: $14,511/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Calistoga Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607020
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,716
• Composite: 39.48/100
• National rank: #8101
• State rank: #624 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Calistoga

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #448
• US rank: #15176

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calistoga, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,921

Population outlook (Napa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,987 people
• By 2030: 159,490 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 168,796 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 176,213 · +14.4%
• By 2075: 190,113 · +23.5%
• By 2100: 190,528 · +23.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 18% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 34% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Napa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.9) · D 65.9% · R 31.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.9 2020: D+40.4 2016: D+35.2 2012: D+25.7 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -476.46%
• Current HPI: 244.6548
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $269,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $551 · -21.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.