8410 Sweet Cherry Ln · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2024 5,822 sqft lot Est $255k · 12% over $62/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +2.2/15.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This stunning Magnolia home blends style, comfort, and thoughtful upgrades into one move-in ready package. From the timeless fully bricked exterior to the elevated interior finishes, every detail is designed to impress. Inside, you’ll find a bright, open layout with upgraded flooring, designer touches, and a beautifully appointed kitchen featuring a pot filler and included appliances, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers a spa-like feel with upgraded finishes, while smart home features and added details throughout provide convenience and peace of mind. A true standout in today’s market—this home offers the perfect balance of

Key facts

• Upgraded flooring
• Pot filler
• Included appliances

Tags

• FULLY BRICKED EXTERIOR
• UPGRADED FLOORING
• BEAUTIFULLY APPOINTED KITCHEN
• POT FILLER
• INCLUDED APPLIANCES
• SMART HOME FEATURES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-670 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (41.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (27.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (41.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tom R Ellisor El (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 492 students, 40% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.

Recommended offer $166,662 (41.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.07%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $255,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8410 Sweet Cherry Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,500 (0%)	1mo	$285,000	$190	99
162 Courageous Side Way	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,477 (-2%)	3mo	$235,000	$159	80
20 Courageous Side Way	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,708 (+14%)	1mo	$288,990	$169	72
175 Courageous Side Way	0.33mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,666 (+11%)	1mo	$279,900	$168	58
158 S Star Ridge Cir	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,605 (+7%)	4mo	$330,000	$206	57
209 Valiant Ridge Trl	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,678 (+12%)	2mo	$284,900	$170	56
203 Brazen Forest Trl	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,678 (+12%)	2mo	$279,900	$167	54
7906 Alset Dr	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,678 (+12%)	6mo	$289,900	$173	52
294 Brazen Forest Trl	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,678 (+12%)	5mo	$274,900	$164	52
282 Brazen Forest Trl	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,678 (+12%)	5mo	$269,900	$161	52
7823 Bergamot Cir	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,678 (+12%)	1mo	$284,900	$170	47
7745 Bergamot Cir	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,678 (+12%)	1mo	$284,900	$170	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $107,386
• Equity at exit: $256,751

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.27×
• Total profit: $340,447
• Equity at exit: $553,692

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,055 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$618 /mo · $7,417/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$62
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-670

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,903

Max offer price $166,662

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-509	-5% $-589	+0% $-670	+5% $-751	+10% $-831
Rent	-10% $-832	-5% $-751	+0% $-670	+5% $-589	+10% $-508
Rate	-1.0pp $-526	-0.5pp $-597	base $-670	+0.5pp $-744	+1.0pp $-819

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
260 Gallant Front Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,975	$1.40	26d	1	0.21mi
260 Gallant Front Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$2,000	$1.42	46d	1	0.21mi
131 Valiant Ridge Trl Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,280	$1.24	1d	1	0.26mi
139 Valiant Ridge Trl Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1511	$1,846	$1.22	15d	1	0.29mi
7910 Alset Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1897	$2,320	$1.22	46d	1	0.45mi
9396 Woodlands Pkwy Unit EASR Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1259	$1,649	$1.31	14d	1	0.91mi
9396 Woodlands Pkwy Unit EASR Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1259	$1,649	$1.31	26d	1	0.91mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 2162 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1177	$1,883	$1.60	7d	1	1.14mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 2228 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1177	$1,867	$1.59	1d	1	1.14mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 3228 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,320	$1.47	1d	1	1.14mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 2047 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1177	$1,918	$1.63	13d	1	1.16mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 3047 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,371	$1.50	13d	1	1.16mi
30000 FM 2978 Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1175	$1,768	$1.50	0d	47	1.18mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 30013 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,360	$1.50	12d	1	1.19mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 30017 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1177	$1,907	$1.62	12d	1	1.19mi
3 Peachridge Pl Unit 1 Spring, TX	3.0	2.5	1657	$1,950	$1.18	23d	1	1.25mi
30006 Farm to Market Road 2978 Magnolia, TX	2.0	1.0	1088	$1,766	$1.62	46d	1	1.32mi
10851 W Montfair Blvd The Woodlands, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1067	$2,339	$2.19	15d	45	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $62 · $744/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-02
   listed $285,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,417 · $618/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,417 · $618/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,661
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$7,417
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,973
• − Management: −$1,973
• − HOA: −$744
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$13,126
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,150
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,888/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $285,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+354.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,417 · +354.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.