964 S Sage Rd · Bolivar Peninsula, TX 77650

$249,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 832 sqft · SingleFamily · 159 Days on market

Built 2010 Good condition 0.33 ac lot Garage $299/sqft · 22% below area Est $321k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to classic coastal living on the Bolivar Peninsula. This well-priced, traditional beachside home offers the charm buyers love with the elevated design and breezy outdoor spaces that make life at the beach unforgettable. Set on a spacious lot just moments from the Gulf, this home features a wide covered deck perfect for morning coffee, evening sunsets, and relaxing after a day on the sand. Inside, you’ll find a bright and comfortable layout with a welcoming living area, coastal-inspired finishes, and plenty of natural light.

Key facts

• Beachside home
• Wide covered deck
• 0.33 acre lot

Tags

• BEACHSIDE HOME
• WIDE COVERED DECK
• QUIET BEACHSIDE NEIGHBORHOOD
• EASY ACCESS TO RESTAURANTS
• SHORT-TERM RENTAL OPPORTUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $249k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-523 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (30.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (5.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (30.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.1% in Bolivar Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#719 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Galveston ISD (town): math 33% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #514 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oppe El (math 67% / reading 60%, grade B, #291 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 610 students, 63% FRL); Central Middle (math 18% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 879 students, 80% FRL); Ball H S (math 17% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,085 of 1,632 statewide, top 67%, 1,934 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools at 72% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1005 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 49d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,377 (30.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.52%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $320,534
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: -22.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
847 S Selwyn Rd	0.23mi	2/2.0	810 (-3%)	15mo	$275,000	$340	71
872 O Neil Rd	0.20mi	2/2.0	960 (+15%)	0mo	$339,000	$353	63
959 Surfview	0.59mi	2/2.0	864 (+4%)	9mo	$265,000	$307	57
1134 Mayes Rd	0.41mi	2/1.0	924 (+11%)	22mo	$400,000	$433	42
860 Main St	0.41mi	2/2.0	953 (+14%)	19mo	$285,000	$299	39
852 Buell	0.52mi	1/1.0 (-1)	702 (-16%)	14mo	$234,900	$335	32
1104 Chapmans Pt	0.77mi	2/1.0	990 (+19%)	12mo	$350,000	$354	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-73,187
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.50×
• Total profit: $-104,775
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 15 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 45.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $305,000 ($353/sqft)
• Median days on market: 133 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +9.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77650

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1005
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,364 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$311 /mo · $3,735/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$669 /mo · $8,028/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $-523

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,025

Max offer price $173,377

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-351	-5% $-437	+0% $-523	+5% $-609	+10% $-695
Rent	-10% $-709	-5% $-616	+0% $-523	+5% $-429	+10% $-336
Rate	-1.0pp $-397	-0.5pp $-459	base $-523	+0.5pp $-587	+1.0pp $-653

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1021 N Sage Crystal Beach, TX	1.0	1.0	576	$2,500	$4.34	49d	1	0.23mi
1166 N Jacks Rd Port Bolivar, TX	2.0	1.0	918	$2,050	$2.23	98d	1	0.55mi
1037 Sunset Cir Unit 1598138P Crystal Beach, TX	2.0	2.0	1097	$2,492	$2.27	4d	1	1.00mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyHas a view
• Construction: Built in 2010Cement siding constructionComposition roof
• Exterior features: Cleared lot with viewsBeach frontAsphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor (11 x 13)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (11.1 x 8.3)Bedroom on the first floor (13 x 11)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Space heater for heatingWindow unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Double vanityPantry

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $249,000 Active 159 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $249,000 Active 158 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $249,000 Active 157 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $249,000 Active 156 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $249,000 Active 155 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $249,000 Active 154 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 153 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 152 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 151 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $249,000 Active 150 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $249,000 Active 149 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $249,000 Active 148 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $249,000 Active 147 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $249,000 Active 146 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $249,000 Active 140 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $249,000 Active 139 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 137 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 135 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $249,000 Active 134 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $249,000 Active 133 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $249,000 Active 132 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $249,000 Active 131 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $249,000 Active 130 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $249,000 Active 129 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $249,000 Active 128 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $249,000 Active 127 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $249,000 Active 126 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $249,000 Active 125 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $249,000 Active 124 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $249,000 Active 123 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $249,000 Active 122 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $249,000 Active 121 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $249,000 Active 120 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $249,000 Active 119 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $249,000 Active 118 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $249,000 Active 117 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $249,000 Active 116 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $249,000 Active 115 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $249,000 Active 114 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $249,000 Active 113 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $249,000 Active 112 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $249,000 Active 110 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $249,000 Active 109 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $249,000 Active 108 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 107 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 104 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $249,000 Active 102 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $249,000 Active 101 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $249,000 Active 99 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $249,000 Active 97 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone VE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,362
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$3,735
• − Insurance: −$9,273
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,269
• − Management: −$2,269
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$10,375
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,490
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,781/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,160–$12,480 screening

This well-maintained Bolivar Peninsula home offers a good balance of charm and functionality, with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed.

Repairs flagged

• Minor wooden deck — slight wear
• Minor interior paint — slight fading

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental replace carpet — improves comfort and cleanliness ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Morgan El Magnet School B TX #257/4,322 Nat'l #5,189/41,679 Middle Austin Middle A TX #35/1,662 Nat'l #537/14,009 High Ball H S F TX #1,085/1,632 Nat'l #10,882/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Galveston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820280
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,162
• Composite: 30.22/100
• National rank: #6299
• State rank: #514 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Bolivar Peninsula

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #13437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bolivar Peninsula, TX
• County: Galveston · 390,640 people
• City population: 2,957
• Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,362
• Household income: $71,700
• Rent vs Own: 7.9% rent · 92.1% own

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Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.52%
• Current HPI: 231.5074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyHas a view
• Construction: Built in 2010Cement siding constructionComposition roof
• Exterior features: Cleared lot with viewsBeach frontAsphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor (11 x 13)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (11.1 x 8.3)Bedroom on the first floor (13 x 11)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Space heater for heatingWindow unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Double vanityPantry

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $275,000 HARMLS