1792 Hacks Neck Rd · Heathsville, VA 22473

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · SingleFamily · 97 Days on market

Built 1960 5.00 ac lot $109/sqft · 52% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Ultimate Farmhouse Revival! Ever dreamed of rolling up your sleeves and breathing new life into a classic? This 1960s farmhouse is calling all visionaries, hobby farmers, and DIY enthusiasts! Nestled on 5 sprawling acres of picturesque land, this property offers the rare chance to create a custom country estate from the ground up. The home itself is a true throwback to a simpler time, retaining the original character and footprint of its 1960 origins. While it's in need of a few fixes here and there, the "good bones" are there for someone ready to transform this fixer-upper into a modern masterpiece. Whether you want to preserve the vintage farmhouse charm or go full "modern-rustic, " the floorplan is a blank canvas waiting for your floor-to-ceiling renovation. Outside, the possibilities are endless. With 5 acres at your disposal, there is plenty of room for a massive organic garden, a horse paddock, or that oversized pole barn you've always wanted. There's no HOA to hold you back here—just wide-open space, mature trees, and the peace and quiet that only a true acreage property can provide. This property is being sold strictly as-is, making it the perfect project for a flipper or a homeowner looking to build sweat equity in a booming rural market. Bring your contractor, your imagination, and your work gloves—opportunities like this don't stay on the market long!

Key facts

• Horse paddock
• 5 sprawling acres
• Oversized pole barn

Tags

• 5 SPRAWLING ACRES
• CUSTOM COUNTRY ESTATE
• FLOOR-TO-CEILING RENOVATION
• MASSIVE ORGANIC GARDEN
• HORSE PADDOCK
• OVERSIZED POLE BARN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $185 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (6.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 1.5% in Heathsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#510 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, schools A, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Northumberland County Public School District (rural): math 47% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #75 of 131 in VA (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 238 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Northumberland County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.34%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,846
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -52.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-8,544
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $7,480
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22473

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,172 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $397/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $938

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 79 DOM
16. 2026-03-13
    listed $125,000 Active 1420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1420 chars)

    The Ultimate Farmhouse Revival! Ever dreamed of rolling up your sleeves and breathing new life into a classic? This 1960s farmhouse is calling all visionaries, hobby farmers, and DIY enthusiasts! Nestled on 5 sprawling acres of picturesque land, this property offers the rare chance to create a custom country estate from the ground up. The home itself is a true throwback to a simpler time, retaining the original character and footprint of its 1960 origins. While it's in need of a few fixes here and there, the "good bones" are there for someone ready to transform this fixer-upper into a modern masterpiece. Whether you want to preserve the vintage farmhouse charm or go full "modern-rustic, " the floorplan is a blank canvas waiting for your floor-to-ceiling renovation. Outside, the possibilities are endless. With 5 acres at your disposal, there is plenty of room for a massive organic garden, a horse paddock, or that oversized pole barn you've always wanted. There's no HOA to hold you back here—just wide-open space, mature trees, and the peace and quiet that only a true acreage property can provide. This property is being sold strictly as-is, making it the perfect project for a flipper or a homeowner looking to build sweat equity in a booming rural market. Bring your contractor, your imagination, and your work gloves—opportunities like this don't stay on the market long!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $397 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,025 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$628/yr (+$52/mo · 157.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,058
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$397
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,125
• − Management: −$1,125
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $148
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$36
• After-tax cash flow: $2,182/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northumberland County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102730
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -39.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $52,524
• Composite: 47.93/100
• National rank: #2209
• State rank: #75 of 131 in VA

Livability — Heathsville

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #510
• US rank: #22811

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,646

Population outlook (Northumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,873 people
• By 2030: 11,609 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 10,938 · -7.9%
• By 2050: 10,235 · -13.8%
• By 2075: 8,922 · -24.9%
• By 2100: 7,288 · -38.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 30% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Northumberland

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.2) · D 39.0% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -21.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.2 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+27.6 2012: R+14.9 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.89%
• Current HPI: 169.0605
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $125,000 NNAR

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $397 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.